5/25/07 FCST: SD/NE/CO/KS

[Andrew Pritchard]

Might be a decent shot at some severe storms today across the central high plains. Shear is the best north towards South Dakota, but it's bone dry up there.

Mark and I will be targetting somewhere between Goodland, KS and Burlington, CO. Speed shear is not as strong here but might be doable. Directional shear is pretty good, however. Helicity values reach 200-250 by evening. Moisture is still marginal but the RUC shows a tongue of mid 50s dew points reaching the area by late afternoon which leads to cape values possibly reaching 1500 or so, and LI's in the -4 to -7 range. A dryline forms in eastern Colorado in the afternoon, and covergence may be just enough to fire a couple storms. With decent moisture and doable shear we might be able to squeeze an elevated supercell or two out of the deal. Here's to hoping for landspouts?

 

[Paul Knightley]

Our team is also likely to head towards NW KS today, from AMA this morning. I noticed the narrow tongue of dewpoints, although the dryline didn't look especially sharp to my eye. Even so, could be enough to fire something off. There looks like there could be some shear vorticity in the upper flow, which could aid storm development too.

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

Probably going to be playing the northwest NE portion of the SLGT today...staying hopefully far enough south to tap into the best of the meager instability...and far enough north to realize some of the increased sfc convergence and upper level forcing associated with the potent Northern Plains shortwave.

Planning on playing the Hwy 61 corridor between Ogallala and Merriman...realizing that it might be around dark before anything pushes into that area. 12z RUC shows this corridor essentially being the western edge of the CAPE "max". Not going into this thing with very high hopes given the obvious moisture issues...but given the plethora of potential chases I've missed this year due to some bad breaks with my work schedule there's no holding me back this weekend.

 

[Stuart Robinson]

Tim M. here on Stuarts computer. First day on tour for us. Agree with NW KS, SW NE for a marginal supercell day. Models show some surface convergence there. There is limited moisture and less than ideal winds aloft but a surprise supercell is not out of the question. Right now, we are heading to Goodland, KS. TM