Jeff Snyder
EF5
Since the day doesn't seem like a tornado blockbuster, we'll just try to fit all FCSTs under this umbrella "Central US" thread. Should there become more defined areas of signficant severe threat, we can break this up...
At any rate, the cold front will slowly slide south (nice alliteration, eh?) and into a JUICY airmass, particularly from OK to AR/MO. While absolute flow is pretty weak at all levels, strong directional shear is yielding moderate deep-layer shear (45kts across northern OK per 0z NAM). This evening's NAM run is shwoing Tds from 70-78 from northern OK, east-northeastward, resulting in extreme instability of 4000 to possibly 5000 from northern OK into southern MO/norhtern AR, and decreasing northeastward from there.
The nice directional shear is present in the low-levels as well, though relatively weak speeds are resulting in only 200-250 0-3km SRH across northern OK by 0z (per 0z NAM). The strong deeplayer shear and extreme instability will likely prove sufficient for strong supercells, and the low-level shear may well be sufficient for a tornado threat as well. With Tds into the "juicy" range (that's a meteorological term...), LCLs should be considerably lower than they were yesterday (5-21), particuarly across northeastern OK.
Right now, I'm probably going to head up I35 towards Perry and go from there. The 0z NAM is breaking out convection across the I35 corridor north of OKC and eastward from there. If anything else, some nice supercells seem to be a very real possibility.
At any rate, the cold front will slowly slide south (nice alliteration, eh?) and into a JUICY airmass, particularly from OK to AR/MO. While absolute flow is pretty weak at all levels, strong directional shear is yielding moderate deep-layer shear (45kts across northern OK per 0z NAM). This evening's NAM run is shwoing Tds from 70-78 from northern OK, east-northeastward, resulting in extreme instability of 4000 to possibly 5000 from northern OK into southern MO/norhtern AR, and decreasing northeastward from there.
The nice directional shear is present in the low-levels as well, though relatively weak speeds are resulting in only 200-250 0-3km SRH across northern OK by 0z (per 0z NAM). The strong deeplayer shear and extreme instability will likely prove sufficient for strong supercells, and the low-level shear may well be sufficient for a tornado threat as well. With Tds into the "juicy" range (that's a meteorological term...), LCLs should be considerably lower than they were yesterday (5-21), particuarly across northeastern OK.
Right now, I'm probably going to head up I35 towards Perry and go from there. The 0z NAM is breaking out convection across the I35 corridor north of OKC and eastward from there. If anything else, some nice supercells seem to be a very real possibility.