What's crashing? The cold front dryline intersection is in southern Kansas at 00Z and by 06Z it's overtaking the dryline in central Oklahoma. Unless you are planning on chasing until 3AM I don't see what the issue is. The models have been showing the cold front overtaking the dryline Thursday night for several runs now. It's nothing new. Hence my post earlier in this thread when somebody asked why SPC highlighted the area all the way down to southern Oklahoma and I said because a squall line would probably form along the cold front after dark.
I just think it's funny how people favor their backyard and then get pissed when somebody disagrees with it. I don't care what anybody else says in their forecast so I don't know why they'd care about what I say in mine.
Then I get some ignorant comment on here asking if I had a model that "predicted the strength of tornadoes". Really??? Obviously you don't know how to forecast and haven't chased very long because with a little experience and forecast knowledge it's really not that hard to recognize a setup that supports strong tornadoes. How do you think any forecast office makes a distinction between a low end tornado threat and a setup that can support strong tornadoes??? Do they have a model that "predicts tornado strenght"? No. It's called forecasting. You should try it some time. BTW this comment is just directed to the person who made that comment earlier.
I'm not saying that we'll get strong tornadoes, but I am saying that if the GFS verifies we will certainly have the potential for strong tornadoes. If you don't want to believe me on that then look at the forecast composite indices for Thursday. Those formulas are written by SPC forecasters among others. They must not know what they're doing either.
Everybody chase north and I'll chase south. That's just fine with me. I would rather not have the traffic down here anyways.
