5/1/08 FCST: KS/MO/OK/AR/TX/NE/IA

[Brandon Goforth]

Well, I'm going to play this Cu field that has developed near Duncan in southern OK. I wasn't excited enough about the cap breaking to make a drive to the KS-OK border with gas so high, so I'm going to hang around down here and hope I get real lucky, you never know. Checking out COD earlier and the WRF did want to break out precip down here. Whether or not you actually believe that is another story, but Tds are becoming quite nice in this area, about 65-67 along I-35 in southern OK.

 

[Darren Addy]

Dryline (?) now clearly visible on 1 KM Nexrad Mosaic in north-central OK and moving E-SE. Last shot seems to show it on radar into south-central KS. Sure is oriented NE to SW for being a dryline. Temps look similar on both sides of the line.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

20z sounding at OUN shows a much weaker cap than what was observed this morning. I'm watching the area S and E of Norman closely as that is the area with the best moisture and instability right now...still not sure if I want to venture out for a gander or not.

 

[Jeff Miller]

Great news for northern target chasers.

Classic triple point setup with rapidly diminishing CIN and cape to 3000 per latest SPC MD. It appears likely a TOR watch will be issued, with a good shot at daytime supercells as initiation should be sometime in my opinion between 4 and 6 PM. Inhibition is becoming negligible. I would think the area between Norfolk and Sioux City will be prime.

Chasers debating between the two targets who are close enough to make a decision may want to start hauling north. It's the best shot for daytime photogenic supercells and tornadoes, in my opinion.

 

[Bill Hark]

After a quick glance at the 00Z outputs for the WRF and GFS, I am not as enthusiastic about Thursday. My main concern is veering of the 850 winds on both models except in northern Iowa. On the WRF, surface winds are backed through Iowa into NE KS and NW Mo. The GFS is similar for 850 winds and surface. Dew points will be marginal that far north with only a narrow area of predicted decent CAPE following the Missouri. I would position myself on the south side of South Sioux City near routes south and west. Unfortunately, there are not a lot of crossing points along the river

Bill Hark

I am still not inclined to shift my original target from last night except possibly a few miles to the east of South Sioux City. I like the backed winds. Dewpoints are not great but enough; ranging from upper 50's to low 60's.

Bill Hark

 

[mark plate]

Oklahoma mesonet shows winds backing west of the dryline and the dryline is beginning to retreat. This loss of low level convergence and a retreating dryline makes the chances of a sustained storm in Oklahoma before dark slim at best. Visible satellite not showing much hope either...the CU looks a bit better across the state line in Kansas, but the window of opportunity even there may be about to close as the dryline retreats up there as well.

 

[Darren Addy]

SPC sounded skeptical of initiation before 00z, but we've currently got 4 cells firing along the dryline. The southern-most storms near the OK border are right in the area the STP predicted. Game On for the southern players.

Will be interesting to see what develops when the upper air support gets there.