If The NAM/WRF is right......then everybody and their mother will be in northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas along I-35 on Thursday afternoon. The 12Z model data which now goes out to the aforementioned storm shows the frontal boundary and dryline intersect about halfway from the Oklahoma/Kansas border to Oklahoma City along I-35. Northeast of this feature, the model breaks out some precipitation, along with the model showing SSE surface winds and a not as powerful LLJ that the GFS model from last night was forecasting. The model veers H85 winds a tad to the SSW, but leaves 925mb winds due to the south which should be an alright ideal. The model could be overdoing the dewpoints as just about 70 degree Td's may be hard to reach, but should that verify, watch out! Showing a moist layer at H7 and at H85, should not think that the cap is an issue in this area, but further south along the dryline, the layers are drier and the cap becomes more of a hinder for thunderstorm development in that area. According to Earl's model site, the severe parameters including the STP are maximized in this area so if this model verifies, watch out again!
It still appears that the 12Z GFS model is a little more quicker on the situation on Thursday and a little more northerly as it puts the dryline/frontal intercept in SE Kansas. With the NAM/WRF showing less 0-1km SRH due to the weaker LLJ, the GFS still maintains its stronger wind speeds in the crucial level.
But, for now, still feel that there are still some considerable model differences including the position of the dryline/frontal boundary intercept and the strength of the LLJ which will then dictate where the storms will develop, what mode of development will happen, and how strong. NAM/WRF favors an area in north central Oklahoma into extreme southern Kansas, while the GFS still prefers an area in east central Kansas southward to northeast Oklahoma. Further model runs will hopefully hose in an agreement on the location of the best severe features. Both models do break out precipitation in the location of the progged frontal boundary/dryline intercept. Either way, both areas depicted by the models are decent chasing areas and the storms should be moving at chasable speeds. Still looks like a decent severe weather setup on tap for the 1st of May.