4/7/11 FCST: KS/OK/MO

[Dean Baron]

Figure I'll start up a thread for Thursday since it's in range of the NAM now. Won't go in to detail right now because it is still so far out, but since I wont be able to chase the better setups over the weekend, if Thursday still looks good I might take a stab at it, especially if the models start trending it farther north. GFS and NAM have the low in the same general area across southern KS, with the NAM being a bit further west. MLCAPE from 1000-1200 across the target area on both models, but the winds look like crap on the GFS. Much better surface winds and overall VWP's on the NAM, although the hodos still don't look great. Anyways, something to keep an eye. I'm just getting antsy to get out for the first time this season.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

The NAM is definitely painting a better picture than the GFS at 84 hours out, IMO. EHI max in SC Kansas, and the dryline a bit farther west and a bit sharper. As Dean mentioned, surface winds not as badly veered on the NAM as on the GFS, although they don't look all that great to me on the NAM either. It looks to me that, at 850 mb, you'd have a nice batch of dry SW Texas air coming up.

If the GFS comes more in line with the NAM (ha.), Thursday may have the potential to be a bit of a sleeper day. It's still just way too far out to jump to any conclusions.

 

[Dean Baron]

The NAM looks more or less the same as it did yesterday. Only problem I see right now is a brutal cap across the warm sector. SPC has highlighted a risk area in its SWODY3.