3/5: FCST: Friday MI/KY/TN/OK

[rdale]

SPC has removed the slight risk completely from all of the area for today - which makes no sense to me. I'm still not gung-ho about this afternoon, but clearly not to the point of saying 0% chance of severe! IWX is still saying we won't get anything but a few light rainshowers in SW Mich this afternoon as well.

The interesting thing to note is that the low pressure system is 1) notably stronger and 2) farther west than the models' forecasts. The models also are not picking up on the warm / moist air, with temps near 60 and dew points well into the 50's just now edging into SW Mich. According to the computer, we'll see highs in the lower 60's and dew points in the 40's today - and odds of all that moist air retreating south and the mid-upper 60's not moving any closer are not good ;>

The low is centered in northeast Iowa, with an end to our area of rain crossing a Chicago to Indy line, and some clearing over the western half of Illinois. The sooner we get rid of this rain and pop out some sunshine the better.

After all that -- I'm still not terribly excited about today's threat but still expect to be out and about a good part of the early afternoon...

- Rob

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Rob I had began to lose hope, but the sun is starting to try and peek through the clouds finally here in Big Rapids. There is 20 degree difference between GR and here. I agree with you, bring on the sun. I'll take anything we can get today.

Tim

 

[rdale]

I can't see dew points in the 40's being conducive to convection!

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Yeah, I just got off the DuPage site....

Looks like a windy day and that's about it. You think if it had arrived a little later, like after lunch, we would have had a better shot?

 

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, I am losing hope fast for today. Looks like the mid level warming will completely cut off instability. Everything else is in place, mid 50's SFC dewpoints, mild temps, and extreme shear, just need colder upper air temps. I just looked at WI, and they had a severe thunderstorm warning for 3 counties around 5am. Also just checked the Wolcott profiler from IN, shows 85KNTS within the first 2K-3K feet!


Robert

 

[rdale]

I don't think it's necessarily a cold front moving through Indiana / SW Mich but simply mixing out all the dry air aloft when the sun pokes through at the surface (shouldn't have read the IWX discussion before drawing my maps ;> ) The cold front is back in central IL yet with the actual cold surge from Madison to SE Iowa.

I don't think we're too warm aloft (-15*C at 500, 3*C at 700) but too dry. However Chicago radar is giving me hope...

 

[Robert Dewey]

As you said Rob, I can already see the dry air mixing in...Looking at the latest 15Z Metar...dewpoints in extreme southwest lower MI have dropped, with a reading of 49F near South Bend. At this point, I would be happy with any kind of convection.

Robert

 

[rdale]

The cold front is moving through central Illinois at this hour, so time remains for development yet this afternoon (and an area of showers is now moving out ahead of the front over southern Lake Michigan) but it's possible that we just see sunshine the rest of the day with a few clouds here and there.

Regardless of our thunderstorm chances - it's going to be very windy with gusts > 30 mph throughout the afternoon and evening. Any shower and storm action would be well out of the area by sunset, and then the winds will gradually subside overnight with some flurries!

-rd

 

[Ben Pinette]

Starting to see some sun in ARB at this time, but I honestly don't see anything more than a non-convective wind storm for today. I'll be planning on a full day of work

 

[Jon Miller]

11 am(16 Z) est- west central Ohio

Skys are partly cloudy to clearing - winds from s.w @ 20-30 mph w/ gust to 40 mph
Temp-67 deg
dew pt - 54 deg

I don't think anything is going to happen here. We had a lot of rain yesterday and the front is progged to go thru in early afternoon. Not enough time for convective heating & instability to happen before temps drop. Besides gas prices jumped up again yesterday ($1.79) so will stay home and not waste gas.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Very wind here as of 11:30am, just had a gust to 50mph measured on my weather station. Current T/Td is 69F/55F. Not looking for any significant severe storms, but the tallest showers or isolated thunderstorms may be able to pull winds of 60-80mph down to the sfc. This is stated in the DTX hazardous wx outlook as well. Most of extreme southern lower MI is now covered by a high wind warning as well...


Robert

 

[rdale]

But we need some sort of instability to get convection - and the LI -1 readings in the area according to SPC's page are now moving out, and with it any hopes of thunderstorms today... And now we're clouding up with dew point of 51 and temp 63 (just 65/60 30 minutes ago!)

- Rob

 

[Dan Cook]

windy here. Sustained of 35-45 with gusts to 55.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Storms in Ohio??

message deleted. Thanks MRobinson. LJK.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well today was a bust...But I still liked it because of the warm temps and strong southerly winds. Still have another 5 months of prime severe weather season for the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley region (late March through early August).


Robert