3/5: FCST: Friday MI/KY/TN/OK

I don't think it's necessarily a cold front moving through Indiana / SW Mich but simply mixing out all the dry air aloft when the sun pokes through at the surface (shouldn't have read the IWX discussion before drawing my maps ;> ) The cold front is back in central IL yet with the actual cold surge from Madison to SE Iowa.

I don't think we're too warm aloft (-15*C at 500, 3*C at 700) but too dry. However Chicago radar is giving me hope...
 
As you said Rob, I can already see the dry air mixing in...Looking at the latest 15Z Metar...dewpoints in extreme southwest lower MI have dropped, with a reading of 49F near South Bend. At this point, I would be happy with any kind of convection.

Robert
 
The cold front is moving through central Illinois at this hour, so time remains for development yet this afternoon (and an area of showers is now moving out ahead of the front over southern Lake Michigan) but it's possible that we just see sunshine the rest of the day with a few clouds here and there.

Regardless of our thunderstorm chances - it's going to be very windy with gusts > 30 mph throughout the afternoon and evening. Any shower and storm action would be well out of the area by sunset, and then the winds will gradually subside overnight with some flurries!

-rd
 
Starting to see some sun in ARB at this time, but I honestly don't see anything more than a non-convective wind storm for today. I'll be planning on a full day of work :(
 
11 am(16 Z) est- west central Ohio

Skys are partly cloudy to clearing - winds from s.w @ 20-30 mph w/ gust to 40 mph
Temp-67 deg
dew pt - 54 deg

I don't think anything is going to happen here. We had a lot of rain yesterday and the front is progged to go thru in early afternoon. Not enough time for convective heating & instability to happen before temps drop. Besides gas prices jumped up again yesterday ($1.79) so will stay home and not waste gas.
 
Very wind here as of 11:30am, just had a gust to 50mph measured on my weather station. Current T/Td is 69F/55F. Not looking for any significant severe storms, but the tallest showers or isolated thunderstorms may be able to pull winds of 60-80mph down to the sfc. This is stated in the DTX hazardous wx outlook as well. Most of extreme southern lower MI is now covered by a high wind warning as well...


Robert
 
But we need some sort of instability to get convection - and the LI -1 readings in the area according to SPC's page are now moving out, and with it any hopes of thunderstorms today... And now we're clouding up with dew point of 51 and temp 63 (just 65/60 30 minutes ago!)

- Rob
 
Well today was a bust...But I still liked it because of the warm temps and strong southerly winds. Still have another 5 months of prime severe weather season for the Great Lakes/northern Ohio Valley region (late March through early August).


Robert
 
Can you believe this one?

I am currently writing this in a library in central Kentucky :?

Damn - I thought I would at least get something, but everything turned to crap.

Pudacuh Radar showed some thunderstorms moving toward me quickly and intensfying, but I dought I will see anything severe.

Wind gusts have been pushing 40+ mph - but I drove into the "slight risk" area for nothing - 5 hours away. :x

This is the last time I chase this early in the season. :x

Hoping for just some lightning.
 
Nick,

Driving all that way just to bust certainly is no fun. But, at least you got out and tried to make something of it!
 
Nick,

Driving all that way just to bust certainly is no fun. But, at least you got out and tried to make something of it!

Well, right after I wrote this a few thunderstorms passed over me -- one produced a 65 mph wind gust which I just reported via online to the NWS.

It was nice to get that far south anyway.
 
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