I have to say this is tough to predict because I don't necessarily believe the models at this point. Well... some of their attributes anyway. I've been focusing in the Lincoln area as obligations won't allow me to stray far from home.
What I'm seeing for this area is a very nice setup with a few exceptions.
1.) With the EML, there is a significant cap which the NAM magically eliminates around 5 PM local time. I say magically, but it appears that it is actually bringing the shortwave through, a shift in wind, additional lift, and this is tending to erase the cap. However, I feel that much of this is convective contamination... contamination which may not happen at all if convective initiation is not reached. Stupid feedbacks! On the other hand, I feel that this northern shortwave, in conjunction with good left exit region jet support has the potential to at least aid in overcoming the lid out ahead of the approaching frontal systems.
2.) Another major concern of mine with this system is the potential presence of clouds. It's true that we have warm dry air predominant above about 825. However, the layer below is fully saturated for much of the morning and into the afternoon. I've seen low level clouds bust me before, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again. The good news is that for once, it appears the NAM might not be blowing early spring smoke up our butts with these 60+ dewpoints. I only say this because they are already present in NE Oklahoma, and I anticipate a pretty good LLJ tonight. It will be interesting to see how this scenario plays out. Happy chasing to all who can get out tomorrow. Be safe, and try to be respectful to other people around you... chasers and non-chasers alike.
but any will do right now).
