Not real sure what to think anymore with the models.... Seems like they keep changing with every run. My focus now is more on Friday into Saturday.... Nevertheless, Wed does have the potential to be a pretty good severe weather day. 2 main factors will play the biggest role for the potential event.........
1: How Strong the Cap will Be?
2: How much and where the rain will fall on Tuesday?
Both of these in my opinion are the 2 main forecast challenges. Dew points are not a problem at all. Expect 60+ in the Panhandles. Looking back into the past. It always seem to be ironic that the cap seems to break in Beaver County, OK up to Clark County, KS. I'm not sure what it is, but the cap seems to break in that area first on setups as this one. Rainfall probally is my biggest concern. BUT, I think most of the morning crap will stay far enough east and south (in Oklahoma) and away from the Eastern Oklahoma Panhandles. As the day goes on, temperatures will warm as the warm front races back to the north, and that alone will burn off morning crap/fog............... Just using my gut on this one, I think Beaver county will be the place to be, if we can make it to around 75 degrees with clear skies....This will break the cap...hopefully.