3/21/2007 FCST: TX / OK / KS / NE / IA

[V. Gensini]

I agree to the above post. Cloud models suggest that most of the SLGT target area in IA will be covered in a stratus deck until around 00Z. Breaks in the clouds may allow a few discrete storms to develop in SW IA, but I'm not excited enough for a situation like this...Cap will most likely remain an issue. Sorry, but looks like a bust to me. Enjoy the nice MCS that will move through tonight though! Should be a decent lightning show...

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

For some of you guys who live farther from the SPC target area, I don't blame you for waiting on the weekend event. Here in Lincoln, we have the low stratus deck I was worried about.

Personally I am pleased with the cloud situation this monring, we are already experiencing numerous breaks in the low cloud deck where I can clearly see the sun. Looking at the satelitte images make it look as though even better clearing is currently under way to the SW of Lincoln as well.

I am pleased with the placement of the surface low by the RUC it is also a little deeper on the RUC which hopefully will lead to better backing of winds. The RUC is also pretty aggressive with CAPE values, I am remaining Optimistic this morning.

 

[Brandon Sullivan]

SPC MD 301 has been issued.. Calls for severe potential just across the river for me.. So, as ive said before, im heading to southern ia after school!!

 

[Jay McCoy]

Well I have to work until noon so Ks/Ne target is out. I will stay close to home and work the dryline today which I actually think will be ok. CAPE of 2500 and SRH of 200+ around Childress. I would like the 850mb winds to back some more but I think convergence along the dryline and ofcourse some caprock forcing will bust through the lid east of Memphis. Not a ton of directional shear but plenty of speed shear for some supercells. I am a bit surprised the SPC doesnt at least have a 2% tornado out for the dryline area with the forcatsed helicities and LCL's of under 1400.

One issue we were worried about was overnight convection and morning cloudcover limiting heating but we have nice clear skies and strong south winds pumping in moisture so temps in the low 80's and DP's in the 60's will be easy.

Target- Childress, Tx

 

[Caleb Kimbrough]

Scott, Aaron, and myself are heading to Concordia around noon or so. We are actually camped out in Green, KS which is only about an hour away or so... I'm glad we don't have to drive too far for this setup.

We are getting some breaks in the clouds here as well... Temp. is at 65 and dewpoint is just below 60.

Should be a fun day... Everyone have a good time and stay safe!

 

[Craig Maire II]

I am currently at an Motel 6 right along I-80 in Lincoln Nebraska, I plan on heading south and west to near the Kansas/Nebraska border to where I believe supercells will develop later this afternoon with a few tornados possible. The cap is weaker than was previously forecasted plus there will be plenty of shear and moderate instability with dewpoints and temps already very good for March. (Hebron Nebraska 68F with a DP of 59F at 9am!) Also, if anyone see's a white Chevy Cavalier with large Skywarn Decals on the sides today, that was me

 

[Doug Mitchell]

At 10:30am, the Supercell Composite is already at 8 over NC KS. I'm very impressed with the moisture and instability so early in the morning. Still worried about cap issues and weak mid-level flow but I'll be out playing the triple-point. Planning on leaving Larry town here soon for a nice leisurely drive on my day off.

 

[Reed Timmer]

The morning model runs certainly look better than the 00z runs last night!! I was very depressed after the 00z wrf/gfs yesterday, which had the cold front surging south into central KS, and a surface low near Dodge City, and a huge cap east of the dryline.

It looks like south-central/southeast NE and extreme N KS are looking good once again. The WRF and RUC hold the cold front into central NE, allowing for an uncapped warm sector in NE. I also like the 50 kt low-level jet just to the southeast of the cold front, and the surface low forecast to be further north in N KS.

I'm playing the northern end of the good instability somewhere near York, NE, where the best shear, instability, and lowest CIN coincide later this afternoon. With an easterly storm motion, the SSW surface winds and SW 850 mb flow yield a favorable hodograph for tornadoes. If the front holds to the north, and the RUC low-level flow verifies, this could be mass chaos over south-central/southeast NE later this afternoon.

 

[Angie Norris]

I'm playing the dryline for this one...instincts have been yelling Childress for the past couple of days. More than adequate CAPE by 20Z, dryline in place, enough shear for at least a nice storm, cap looks nicely breakable (not EVEN expecting a tornado today, just a storm or two will do quite nicely, thank you). Heading for the Childress area as we speak.
Good luck to all today!!

 

[Ryan Pfannkuch]

Actually sitting here in Carroll County IA (west central IA) this morning on the folks' good ole dial-up connection...looking at data the agonizingly slow way.

I am still torn between sitting this one out or heading down to the KS/NE border area. Neither the 12z RUC or 12z NAM show convection developing in the prime northern target area by 0z, and RUC forecast soundings for the Beatrice and Hebron areas look fairly capped at 0z with SBCINH of 108 and 60, respectively. And I am just NOT seeing a decent shortwave moving into the KS/NE border area during that time to help things along. Almost seems like the best mid/upper support of the day is helping to fuel the ongoing hailstorms to my east and southeast. On a positive note...as others in the target area have mentioned...there is a fair amount of clearing/breaks in overcast, so CAPE could get pretty frisky later on.

I have pretty good confidence of some hailers around and just after dark in the NE/KS/IA/MO border area (per 12z NAM QPF)...but as for action before 0z I just don't know. No matter what, the cold front surging in from the north just tempers the overall optimism on the whole thing.

I will probably decide by 18z or so if the drive southwest is warranted...but for now...if I had to pick a 4-county target area for anything happening BEFORE 3z I would go with: Thayer (NE), Jefferson (NE), Republic (KS) and Washinton (KS). Will be interesting to see if the next few RUC runs give more hope to earlier initiation...

 

[Tony Laubach]

we have reconsidered and are on our way out. Near burlington CO now with an initial target of Salina.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Salina to Concordia is looking pretty good to me. Vis sat shows nice clearing over central KS now (weird striations in the cirrus deck to the east). I may head north up 29 after work if things continue to shape up.

 

[Jim Bishop]

Maybe I'm being pessimistic, but this setup looks horrible. The surface winds are already veering across Kansas and South Central Nebraska in response to the banna low type feature. 850mb winds will continue to slowly become more south-southwesterly to southwesterly during the day. Low level moisture is already mixing out a bit as a result, and that cap will likely hold over Kansas.

It might break along the cold front in South Central Nebraska, but I'm starting to doubt that as well. The RUC doesn't show it breaking. Even if a couple storms do fire, that front could be bad for storms. I suppose if any storm can move east away from the front then things could get interesting. But honestly I think any storm today will struggle with the cap...significantly decreasing any tornado potential.

Good luck to all chasing today.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm partial to the southern end of the favored band, and am virtually sitting on the south end of Wichita. First, whatever fires in northern KS, southern NE looks to quickly go linear with major progged subsidence pushing the action quickly eastward late. Second, the trough/dryline axis is best developed further south IMO. Third, helicity and winds "feel" just a bit better down there, with a hint of some PVA coming out of the trough in late afternoon.

The biggest reason, though, is that the OK-KS border south of ICT has been my virtual target for over a day now. I like consistency in my models.

The southwestern trough has been hanging back more and more as the days progressed. This is a tip IMO that the reflection, i.e. ridging/subsidence, is more active the further north and west you go.

I'm not really that excited about today. Also, I think I'll be heading toward Monahans, TX, the next few days and don't want to virtually drive too far.... FWIW.

 

[Reed Timmer]

While the cap may be a problem today, the veered winds are definitely not. If you look at the forecast hodographs, with an ESE storm motion (right-moving supercell here), SW 850 flow and SSW surface flow are more favorable than if it were backed. Streamwise vorticity at low-levels will be maximized under this "veered" low-level flow scenario.

But if a storm doesn't fire and move away from the front, then it won't matter anyway.