3/1/07 NOW :IL/MO/KS/TN/KY/AL/AR/LA/TX

[Angie K Holliday]

We now have our first fatality of the outbreak. Media outlets in Missouri are reporting that an individual was killed in a mobile home that was destroyed by the tornado that struck Caulfield,a small town about twenty miles southwest of West Plains, earlier this morning.

Yes, it was a 7 year old girl who died.

Had storms here overnight, with a tornado warning, but no touchdown. Now it's quite a bit warmer, sunny and apparently the storms are out of my area... I'm tired, so I can't think well, but I sure was expecting storms this morning, so it threw me off when there was nothing going on!

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Chase-wise, I don't think this event is looking very promising. Cloud cover is covering nearly all of the warm sector, and it appears most of the convection is already going linear. I think the northern portions of the risk area (IL/IN/KY) are done - the front is already sweeping through there, with convection on the downturn. I could be wrong, but I think the high risk may actually be pulled back a little closer to the Gulf coast. I still think there is a major threat with the extreme shear, but chase-wise it looks like a typical early-season outbreak with squall-line embedded mesos.

I have to disagree with you Dan.

I'm sitting in Pana, Illinois. Earlier convection has died out, but has beefed up the dew points where the sky has cleared out well ahead of the front, which is still across the Mississippi River. Temps have leaped to near 70, and we can see vigorous convective development to our west. Severe Warning has already been issued on a cell near Springfield, IL in the second batch. I may be jinxing it... but the Illinois and Indiana show may just be getting started.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

SVR watch for all of northern illinois, must say its a bit odd to have a watch with a good 2 inches of snow still on the ground

im thinkin the line will fill in and move into the area by 1-2 pm

 

[HAltschule]

Lots of promise from the very impressive tornadic supercells in Choctaw County and Washington County, AL and in Greene County, MS. Only 1 of those storms is TOR warned which surprises me quite a bit. The strong SRV G2G shear in each of those 3 storms suggests tornado can develop or are in progress now.

EDIT: While these storms are firing in short lines, they should quickly become discrete with increasing tendancy to hook and rotate. Alabama looks to be under the gun in the very near future.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

So far these storms have been moving northeasterly around 20-30kt, by my rough estimation (haven't had the time to make a more precise measurement). Based on the 12z, 15, and 18z soundings, this shows that there is not a whole lot of low-level storm-relative helicity available for these cells. Now I could be wrong, but until some of these storms start to move in a more east-northeast or even easterly direction, which will greatly enhance low-level SRH values, I'm not too excited.

 

[HAltschule]

Wow, what data are you looking at? I hate to disagree but I totally do. First, the 18z soundings have not even been received yet. They only launched a few minutes ago. Next, from this mornings 12z launches, soundings across AL and FL Panhandles have helicity values between 300-600!!! Not to mention 0-1km helicity values of 100-300 in many locations.

Please look at almost any thunderstorm in MS or AL now and look at the SRV. There are clear and strong rotation markers as a result of very strong low level shear and veering. You could not ask for much better of a setup for tornadoes than today. Hence, I am very excited about the setup and am confident we will see some long-lived tornadic superecells today...including some which are already ongoing.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Potentially tornadic supercell NW of Camden, AL in Wilcox County in SC AL. This storm has dramatically increased in intensity over the last half hour. It appears that the potential exists for a strong tornado (based on the 0.5 SRVEL from KBMX). The long-term potential of this storm is in question as it will pass over the moisture/instability axis within the next hour.

EDIT: This storm appears to be headed toward Selma, AL.
EDIT 2: The Selma storm has strongly deviant storm motion (just north of east).

Gabe

 

[HAltschule]

I was just watching the same storm now moving into Dallas County, AL. Very large supercell with tremendous low level circulation. Numerous tornado warnings are in effect with this one.

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I was just watching the same storm now moving into Dallas County, AL. Very large supercell with tremendous low level circulation. Numerous tornado warnings are in effect with this one.

Absolutely...I've been monitoring this for a little now, and it continues to strengthen. The low-level mesocyclone is actually stronger than the mid-level mesocyclone, which seems to indicate that this storm has a higher than usual probability of producing a tornado. I'm sure we'll find out soon if there is a tornado, since the tornado should pass over or near Selma, AL.

Gabe

 

[George Tincher]

I have been watching that same Alabama storm and strong low level rotation has continued now for a number of scans. It seems it has maintained constant g2g shear in the range of 100-110 knts for several scans on SRV 1. I would not want to be in the path of this thing. Visibility across much of this area is extremely poor right now based on video I have seen from various live cams from around the state. Sadly, people in the path may have little advanced notice of a tornado's presence until they hear the roar.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Wow, what data are you looking at? I hate to disagree but I totally do. First, the 18z soundings have not even been received yet. They only launched a few minutes ago. Next, from this mornings 12z launches, soundings across AL and FL Panhandles have helicity values between 300-600!!! Not to mention 0-1km helicity values of 100-300 in many locations.

Please look at almost any thunderstorm in MS or AL now and look at the SRV. There are clear and strong rotation markers as a result of very strong low level shear and veering. You could not ask for much better of a setup for tornadoes than today. Hence, I am very excited about the setup and am confident we will see some long-lived tornadic superecells today...including some which are already ongoing.

I was looking at the 18z Jackson sounding, for one, which was already available by 18z (an 18z sounding is actually launched at 17z), as are the rest of them by now. A northeast-moving storm on the 18z Jackson sounding has very little 0-1km helicity to work with, and the same holds true for Montgomery, although Tallahassee looks a little better but still loses a fair amount of low-level helicity with a NE-moving storm.

Further, and perhaps I should've been clearer about this, but I didn't say I wasn't excited at all, I just said I wasn't excited until I saw storms gaining more of an easterly component to the motion. Given what we are seeing with the Selma storm, I stand by my original statement, and think it is being borne out by the observations, rather than contradicted.

 

[HAltschule]

Tornadic Supercell moving from Geneva Cty to Coffee County, AL looks very nasty. Latest scan using Ft. Rucker, AL radar site has a TVS and incredible gate to gate shear values. This is most certainly putting down a tornado from the looks of things.

 

[Melissa Moon]

Reports of wind damage with that cell...could possibly have been caused by a tornado. Strong enough to knock over trees, power lines, and a semi truck.

 

[HAltschule]

Coffee County, AL: 2 TVS signatures with the tornadic supercell. Likely putting down a large tornado now.

Near Selma, AL: Confirmed damage reports coming in from Orrville.

EDIT #1: A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN WAS CONFIRMED IN MILLERS FERRY IN WILCOX COUNTY.

EDIT #2: Tornado confirmed on the ground by O.E.M. in Enterpise, AL. This is the Coffee county storm.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Indeed, that thing looks like a complete beast, it even has a textbook debris ball distinct from the main reflectivity core. Wonder if anyone is on that thing? They could have some great pics, if they can get away from the trees a bit, it looks like there are some nice fields in the area on Google Maps.