Oct 2, 2006
Norman, OK
strong cell in NE mo taking advantantage of warm moist air aloft and putting down some good hail!! warm front hasnt even passed!!! we are at 37 degrees and severe weather!! awesome!
Storms have fired in the warm sector across W TN and N MS w/ severe warned cell near tupelo. expect this activity to increase in intensity and to become surface as the night progresses.
as they become surface based they'll slow down, but i doubt it'll be below 50mph. 45 at the lowest. T-storm watch out til 8 am for N MS, W TN, and W KY.
Hail reports flowing in now....

Couple of warnings already around you and it looks like one of those days where every cell wants to go severe .

Lightning has really increased over Alabama over the past hour.

Good luck on your chase today
We had some good thunderstorms overnight with small hail. The NWS has now pushed the Tornado Watch into my area of Indiana until 7 PM tonight.

I think we are about another 2-3 hours out before things start happening here with the first wave from IL.
I'm sitting in Effingham, IL now waiting to decide whether I want to go north, south, or west. The cells in Missouri don't look amazing yet, aside from the cell near St. Louis that showed a TVS earlier. Appeared that one was riding the warm front. If we could get another sup to do that today, I may go for that and hope for another show similar to yesterday. The lack of any clearing kind of annoys me but, not much that can be done about that.
Temps are still pushing 60 here, which is a big difference from the 41 where I live 60 miles to the north.

Guess the plan will be to wait and see which part of the cluster moving in from Missouri decides to take off... the storms near the wf, or the storms in the warmer air.
TOR warnings out for Mobile, Al. there are also a couple of nice cells offshore that should move inland near Pensacola. and finally, there is a good TVS on the cell south of Brewton, Al in the FL panhandle.
High Risk South

I left Orlando last night at midnight with a target area between Birmingham and Gadsden, AL. When I reached Valdosta, GA I looked at data, including the 4km WRF. I was impressed by the discreet cells that the model portrays in N FL and S GA so I held at the intersection of I75 and Rt. 84 in Valdosta. Then with the 12z SPC outlook I was very surprised to see the MDT Risk all the way back down to Orlando and a portion of the HIGH Risk extending into N FL. Two very rare occurances. The latest parameters on the SPC Mesoanalysis page are quite impressive, to say the least. What is also interesting are the various parameters of the air in the Gulf that is moving N. It will be an interesting day. Stay safe!
Word on the street has it that the SPC will likely be upgrading their TOR probabilities further northward into Illinois, and possibly extending their high risk into Illinois as well.

Clearing is taking place behind the first line of storms which is showing some signs of improvement. Another line of towers is developing back near the front, which will pass through rapidly destabilizing air.
TOR warnings out for Mobile, Al. there are also a couple of nice cells offshore that should move inland near Pensacola. and finally, there is a good TVS on the cell south of Brewton, Al in the FL panhandle.

I am really shocked that they didn't issue a tornado warning for Pensacola . That cell looked better than the Baldwin county cell. Still more cells rolling in off the GOM should make for a busy afternoon. Peak gust so far here in South Mobile has been 44 mph when the tornadic cell went over my house and we did see some dime size hail:)
Chase-wise, I don't think this event is looking very promising. Cloud cover is covering nearly all of the warm sector, and it appears most of the convection is already going linear. I think the northern portions of the risk area (IL/IN/KY) are done - the front is already sweeping through there, with convection on the downturn. I could be wrong, but I think the high risk may actually be pulled back a little closer to the Gulf coast. I still think there is a major threat with the extreme shear, but chase-wise it looks like a typical early-season outbreak with squall-line embedded mesos.
We now have our first fatality of the outbreak.:( Media outlets in Missouri are reporting that an individual was killed in a mobile home that was destroyed by the tornado that struck Caulfield,a small town about twenty miles southwest of West Plains, earlier this morning.
This is something to watch. A nicely isolated supercell has developed in the last twenty minutes near the town of Bolinger in Choctaw County, Alabama. Given the environment, it will likely go tornadic in the next few minutes as it moves into northwestern Clark County.
Other tornadic cells are located in Oskaloosa and Walton Counties in the Florida Panhandle and in Covington and Coffee Counties in southeastern Alabama.