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3/1/07 NOW :IL/MO/KS/TN/KY/AL/AR/LA/TX

strong cell in NE mo taking advantantage of warm moist air aloft and putting down some good hail!! warm front hasnt even passed!!! we are at 37 degrees and severe weather!! awesome!
 
Storms have fired in the warm sector across W TN and N MS w/ severe warned cell near tupelo. expect this activity to increase in intensity and to become surface as the night progresses.
 
as they become surface based they'll slow down, but i doubt it'll be below 50mph. 45 at the lowest. T-storm watch out til 8 am for N MS, W TN, and W KY.
 
Hail reports flowing in now....

Couple of warnings already around you and it looks like one of those days where every cell wants to go severe .

Lightning has really increased over Alabama over the past hour.


Good luck on your chase today
 
We had some good thunderstorms overnight with small hail. The NWS has now pushed the Tornado Watch into my area of Indiana until 7 PM tonight.

I think we are about another 2-3 hours out before things start happening here with the first wave from IL.
 
I'm sitting in Effingham, IL now waiting to decide whether I want to go north, south, or west. The cells in Missouri don't look amazing yet, aside from the cell near St. Louis that showed a TVS earlier. Appeared that one was riding the warm front. If we could get another sup to do that today, I may go for that and hope for another show similar to yesterday. The lack of any clearing kind of annoys me but, not much that can be done about that.
Temps are still pushing 60 here, which is a big difference from the 41 where I live 60 miles to the north.

Guess the plan will be to wait and see which part of the cluster moving in from Missouri decides to take off... the storms near the wf, or the storms in the warmer air.
 
TOR warnings out for Mobile, Al. there are also a couple of nice cells offshore that should move inland near Pensacola. and finally, there is a good TVS on the cell south of Brewton, Al in the FL panhandle.
 
High Risk South

I left Orlando last night at midnight with a target area between Birmingham and Gadsden, AL. When I reached Valdosta, GA I looked at data, including the 4km WRF. I was impressed by the discreet cells that the model portrays in N FL and S GA so I held at the intersection of I75 and Rt. 84 in Valdosta. Then with the 12z SPC outlook I was very surprised to see the MDT Risk all the way back down to Orlando and a portion of the HIGH Risk extending into N FL. Two very rare occurances. The latest parameters on the SPC Mesoanalysis page are quite impressive, to say the least. What is also interesting are the various parameters of the air in the Gulf that is moving N. It will be an interesting day. Stay safe!
 
Word on the street has it that the SPC will likely be upgrading their TOR probabilities further northward into Illinois, and possibly extending their high risk into Illinois as well.

Clearing is taking place behind the first line of storms which is showing some signs of improvement. Another line of towers is developing back near the front, which will pass through rapidly destabilizing air.
 
TOR warnings out for Mobile, Al. there are also a couple of nice cells offshore that should move inland near Pensacola. and finally, there is a good TVS on the cell south of Brewton, Al in the FL panhandle.

I am really shocked that they didn't issue a tornado warning for Pensacola . That cell looked better than the Baldwin county cell. Still more cells rolling in off the GOM should make for a busy afternoon. Peak gust so far here in South Mobile has been 44 mph when the tornadic cell went over my house and we did see some dime size hail:)
 
Chase-wise, I don't think this event is looking very promising. Cloud cover is covering nearly all of the warm sector, and it appears most of the convection is already going linear. I think the northern portions of the risk area (IL/IN/KY) are done - the front is already sweeping through there, with convection on the downturn. I could be wrong, but I think the high risk may actually be pulled back a little closer to the Gulf coast. I still think there is a major threat with the extreme shear, but chase-wise it looks like a typical early-season outbreak with squall-line embedded mesos.
 
We now have our first fatality of the outbreak.:( Media outlets in Missouri are reporting that an individual was killed in a mobile home that was destroyed by the tornado that struck Caulfield,a small town about twenty miles southwest of West Plains, earlier this morning.
 
This is something to watch. A nicely isolated supercell has developed in the last twenty minutes near the town of Bolinger in Choctaw County, Alabama. Given the environment, it will likely go tornadic in the next few minutes as it moves into northwestern Clark County.
Other tornadic cells are located in Oskaloosa and Walton Counties in the Florida Panhandle and in Covington and Coffee Counties in southeastern Alabama.
 
We now have our first fatality of the outbreak.:( Media outlets in Missouri are reporting that an individual was killed in a mobile home that was destroyed by the tornado that struck Caulfield,a small town about twenty miles southwest of West Plains, earlier this morning.

Yes, it was a 7 year old girl who died.

Had storms here overnight, with a tornado warning, but no touchdown. Now it's quite a bit warmer, sunny and apparently the storms are out of my area... I'm tired, so I can't think well, but I sure was expecting storms this morning, so it threw me off when there was nothing going on!
 
Chase-wise, I don't think this event is looking very promising. Cloud cover is covering nearly all of the warm sector, and it appears most of the convection is already going linear. I think the northern portions of the risk area (IL/IN/KY) are done - the front is already sweeping through there, with convection on the downturn. I could be wrong, but I think the high risk may actually be pulled back a little closer to the Gulf coast. I still think there is a major threat with the extreme shear, but chase-wise it looks like a typical early-season outbreak with squall-line embedded mesos.

I have to disagree with you Dan.

I'm sitting in Pana, Illinois. Earlier convection has died out, but has beefed up the dew points where the sky has cleared out well ahead of the front, which is still across the Mississippi River. Temps have leaped to near 70, and we can see vigorous convective development to our west. Severe Warning has already been issued on a cell near Springfield, IL in the second batch. I may be jinxing it... but the Illinois and Indiana show may just be getting started.
 
SVR watch for all of northern illinois, must say its a bit odd to have a watch with a good 2 inches of snow still on the ground

im thinkin the line will fill in and move into the area by 1-2 pm
 
Lots of promise from the very impressive tornadic supercells in Choctaw County and Washington County, AL and in Greene County, MS. Only 1 of those storms is TOR warned which surprises me quite a bit. The strong SRV G2G shear in each of those 3 storms suggests tornado can develop or are in progress now.

EDIT: While these storms are firing in short lines, they should quickly become discrete with increasing tendancy to hook and rotate. Alabama looks to be under the gun in the very near future.
 
So far these storms have been moving northeasterly around 20-30kt, by my rough estimation (haven't had the time to make a more precise measurement). Based on the 12z, 15, and 18z soundings, this shows that there is not a whole lot of low-level storm-relative helicity available for these cells. Now I could be wrong, but until some of these storms start to move in a more east-northeast or even easterly direction, which will greatly enhance low-level SRH values, I'm not too excited.
 
Wow, what data are you looking at? I hate to disagree but I totally do. First, the 18z soundings have not even been received yet. They only launched a few minutes ago. Next, from this mornings 12z launches, soundings across AL and FL Panhandles have helicity values between 300-600!!! Not to mention 0-1km helicity values of 100-300 in many locations.

Please look at almost any thunderstorm in MS or AL now and look at the SRV. There are clear and strong rotation markers as a result of very strong low level shear and veering. You could not ask for much better of a setup for tornadoes than today. Hence, I am very excited about the setup and am confident we will see some long-lived tornadic superecells today...including some which are already ongoing.
 
Potentially tornadic supercell NW of Camden, AL in Wilcox County in SC AL. This storm has dramatically increased in intensity over the last half hour. It appears that the potential exists for a strong tornado (based on the 0.5 SRVEL from KBMX). The long-term potential of this storm is in question as it will pass over the moisture/instability axis within the next hour.

EDIT: This storm appears to be headed toward Selma, AL.
EDIT 2: The Selma storm has strongly deviant storm motion (just north of east).

Gabe
 
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I was just watching the same storm now moving into Dallas County, AL. Very large supercell with tremendous low level circulation. Numerous tornado warnings are in effect with this one.
 
I was just watching the same storm now moving into Dallas County, AL. Very large supercell with tremendous low level circulation. Numerous tornado warnings are in effect with this one.

Absolutely...I've been monitoring this for a little now, and it continues to strengthen. The low-level mesocyclone is actually stronger than the mid-level mesocyclone, which seems to indicate that this storm has a higher than usual probability of producing a tornado. I'm sure we'll find out soon if there is a tornado, since the tornado should pass over or near Selma, AL.

Gabe
 
I have been watching that same Alabama storm and strong low level rotation has continued now for a number of scans. It seems it has maintained constant g2g shear in the range of 100-110 knts for several scans on SRV 1. I would not want to be in the path of this thing. Visibility across much of this area is extremely poor right now based on video I have seen from various live cams from around the state. Sadly, people in the path may have little advanced notice of a tornado's presence until they hear the roar.
 
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