2019-03-22 EVENT: NM/TX/OK

[Dan Robinson]

A bit of a sleeper in the Texas Panhandle today. An LLJ ramps up late evening under a nice-looking negatively-tilted shortwave ejecting out (with an embedded 60+kt jet streak). RAP and NAM show moisture in the mid 50s which is sufficient in this region, but current obs show that may be a little too high (50s DPs mostly still down around I-20). Cloud cover is not the problem that earlier model guidance suggested. Looks like a brief window of opportunity between the NM border and Amarillo if moisture can book it north and things don't line out too fast.

 

[Warren Faidley]

HRRR showing at least one isolated cell developing by 20z in front of the line near the border. I would chase if I was in the area. Nice to see things acting up in a region that has been dead lately, and the farmers need the rain.

 

[Quincy Vagell]

It does look like low level moisture will be a limiting factor, even for the elevation. Area averaged dew-points are in the mid to upper 40s as of 19z. The 18z AMA sounding sampled a relatively meager mean mixing ratio of just 6.2 g/kg. High resolution guidance suggests Tds may tick up a couple of degrees over the next few hours, but that’s about it.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Well...... that did not take long. Confirmed tornado 14 miles NW of Dumas.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Whereas I liked John's report, I think it worthwhile to point out that virtually every (non-tropical) thunderstorm has snow in it, if you just get yourself up high enough into it. The elevation at the base of Ski Santa Fe is 10,350 feet, and 12,075 at the top.

 

[John Farley]

Whereas I liked John's report, I think it worthwhile to point out that virtually every (non-tropical) thunderstorm has snow in it, if you just get yourself up high enough into it. The elevation at the base of Ski Santa Fe is 10,350 feet, and 12,075 at the top.

All true, but there was certainly snow lower than the base elevation of the ski area, possibly very close to where the hail fell. Glorieta Pass is about 7500 and the predicted snow level was around 8500, though it often can go lower than the predicted level during heavy convective bursts. And while it certainly is true that thundersnow is more common in the mountains than at lower elevations, it is also true that even at the altitude of Ski Santa Fe, most thunderstorms do not produce snow. A storm that produces both severe hail and snow, even at high altitudes, is unusual, though I would agree certainly not unheard of.