2016-04-29 EVENT: TX/OK/KS

[Greg McLaughlin]

Lack of cap presents a serious issue, even if things clear out quickly.

It does present an issue for sure. We faced the same issue on March 30th.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Lack of cap presents a serious issue, even if things clear out quickly.

FWIW, there is a pretty decent capping inversion between 850 and 700 mb on the 12Z FWD sounding. RAP forecasts suggest it will be removed pretty quickly, though, so who knows what that might mean for future evolution.

 

[Jeff House]

Today could be a southern Plains version of yesterday. Look for supercells crossing the warm front / outflow boundary which was along the Red River Valley this morning. Boundary may lift north into Oklahoma. Another scenario is the warm front lifts toward I-40 but a subtle outflow boundary remains near the Red River. Second scenario could be chaser friendly on the outflow, especially if a cell can ride it instead of quickly crossing.

If chasing along the Red River plan several steps ahead regarding river crossing and bridges for both safety and probability of success. Otherwise cells forming already north of the River might be easier to follow but instability is not guaranteed in central Oklahoma. If the airmass can recover the wind profiles are robust.

Normally I would be more confident in airmass recovery north of the morning boundary. Trouble is it really got overturned. Even yesterday the central Oklahoma airmass struggled, allowing overnight rain to cool things. Despite concerns I figure 1-2 boundaries will be available with instability at least south.

 

[Trey Thee]

Today could be a southern Plains version of yesterday. Look for supercells crossing the warm front / outflow boundary which was along the Red River Valley this morning. Boundary may lift north into Oklahoma. Another scenario is the warm front lifts toward I-40 but a subtle outflow boundary remains near the Red River. Second scenario could be chaser friendly on the outflow, especially if a cell can ride it instead of quickly crossing.

If chasing along the Red River plan several steps ahead regarding river crossing and bridges for both safety and probability of success. Otherwise cells forming already north of the River might be easier to follow but instability is not guaranteed in central Oklahoma. If the airmass can recover the wind profiles are robust.

Normally I would be more confident in airmass recovery north of the morning boundary. Trouble is it really got overturned. Even yesterday the central Oklahoma airmass struggled, allowing overnight rain to cool things. Despite concerns I figure 1-2 boundaries will be available with instability at least south.

This morning one of the locals had mentioned their data shows the warm front coming all the way to 412. I've been unable to verify this on any of the data that I can see. In fact from what I can tell the WF doesn't even make I40...

 

[Brian McKibben]

I created a loop of the mesonet Tds and it shows steady increase of moisture over the last 2 hours. Tds along river are now AOA 65. Last few runs of HRRR have showed supercells developing in SW Okla. and heading toward OKC metro.

Per VIS and Radar, SW Okla is currently uncontaminated. If convection holds off we could be in business.

 

[Brian McKibben]

Tornado watches issued for N Tx and Okla. Supecell formed right o nthe low in SW oklahoma and appears to be riding the boundary. This could be interesting.

 

[Brian McKibben]

wow.... look at the visible satelite loop. Looks like a bomb went off. Lots of waves generated from the storm.

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Oklahoma-vis-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100