2014-03-15 FCST: TX

[Zack Cooper]

Looking at the latest models, Saturday definitely looks like a potential chase. Both the NAM and GFS show a surface low setting up over north Texas with decent moisture return, dewpoints in the lower 60's or so. Also decent destabilization. Wind profiles on the GFS haven't been very good, but the NAM looks very good. Large looping hodographs in N TX south and east of DFW. Could definitely be a decent day, or not a good day at all, but it bears watching!

 

[James Gustina]

Looks like a nice compact shortwave will come through between two longer waves Saturday. Decent thermodynamic environment with good access to gulf moisture combined with really nice looking 0-1 shear profiles definitely has my attention, especially considering it's the first weekend of spring break. I was a bit concerned by the 00Z for the fact that it has somewhat diffuse dryline in central Texas to start the day and it doesn't begin to sharpen until at least 21Z.

The two biggest concerns for me are very broad low pressure area and not so hot mid-levels. The NAM has been showing some not so nice winds further south of DFW closer to Waco.

 

[James Gustina]

Liking the way the NAM is trending right now in terms of where the dryline sets up. Moving it and the best therodynamic environment back towards Brownwood/Comanche is a plus considering terrain only improves the further away from 35 it gets. I'm not overly concerned about moisture, mainly because 55-60F will more than get it done with a semi-decent shear environment and decent instability for this time of year. Looks like the triple point, for lack of a better term, would be somewhere between Stephenville and Brownwood going into the late afternoon/early evening with really steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading it which makes me hopeful for maybe a semi-discrete hailer or two before sunset.

Edit: Not the best overall wind profile per the 4KM NAM but great instability.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Latest NAM model coming in is not impressive at all. Looks too saturated with instability very limited, 500-750 j/kg. Also dryline definitely diffuse as James said in his post last night, never sharpening at all. Still holding on to hope though, would love a chase.

 

[James Gustina]

It's still showing up with semi-decent parameters south of 20 and west of 35 (NW-ish of Waco). The dryline looks like it won't be more mixed out throughout the layer up around the Stephenville area and capping should be sufficient to hold off early convective initiation that way. I'd be dubious about anything tornadic, but a supercell or two in that area spitting out some gorilla hail would not surprise me given the mid-level lapse rates and a pretty deep hail growth zone.

 

[Zack Cooper]

Eh, it could happen, GFS holds off on any good instability until 00z or so, but it doesn't look bad around that time. Further east of 35 is where the best wind profiles will be located, but expect saturated soundings and and no instability will hold down the threat of anything happening there. If I go out Waco will probably be my preliminary target, but I'm just not sure at this point.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I haven't been following this, but I just had a quick look. The 18Z NAM advertises no cap at 00Z. That is a problem. On the other hand, the sfc L is only about 1006-1007mb, so you don't get much in LL dynamics. No cap, but no lift, either. Hmmm. Next.

 

[chrisbray]

Liking the way the NAM is trending right now in terms of where the dryline sets up. Moving it and the best therodynamic environment back towards Brownwood/Comanche is a plus considering terrain only improves the further away from 35 it gets. I'm not overly concerned about moisture, mainly because 55-60F will more than get it done with a semi-decent shear environment and decent instability for this time of year. Looks like the triple point, for lack of a better term, would be somewhere between Stephenville and Brownwood going into the late afternoon/early evening with really steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading it which makes me hopeful for maybe a semi-discrete hailer or two before sunset.

Edit: Not the best overall wind profile per the 4KM NAM but great instability.

What program are you using in that picture?

 

[chrisbray]

Liking the way the NAM is trending right now in terms of where the dryline sets up. Moving it and the best therodynamic environment back towards Brownwood/Comanche is a plus considering terrain only improves the further away from 35 it gets. I'm not overly concerned about moisture, mainly because 55-60F will more than get it done with a semi-decent shear environment and decent instability for this time of year. Looks like the triple point, for lack of a better term, would be somewhere between Stephenville and Brownwood going into the late afternoon/early evening with really steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading it which makes me hopeful for maybe a semi-discrete hailer or two before sunset.

Edit: Not the best overall wind profile per the 4KM NAM but great instability.

What program are you using in that pic?

 

[James Gustina]

That'd be BUFKIT. You can get it free off of NWS Buffalo's page.

 

[James Gustina]

I haven't been following this, but I just had a quick look. The 18Z NAM advertises no cap at 00Z. That is a problem. On the other hand, the sfc L is only about 1006-1007mb, so you don't get much in LL dynamics. No cap, but no lift, either. Hmmm. Next.

It's been a strange progression on most of the mid-range models. 4KM NAM and SREF have been flip-flopping on whether or not there'll be a sizable inversion that holds off storms until late-afternoon or no capping and everything explodes into a hot mess express by 18Z.

 

[Marcus Diaz]

This is basically the first setup in the south Plains for the season. I don't remember the first ones ever being worth chasing. You have to get a few of these meager setups to clean out the cob webs before you get something worthy. Like Bob said...Hmmm. Next! (month)