Bill Tabor
EF5
I was just checking climate prediction center,...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
...and they state we're in La Nina with that expected to maintain or transition to ENSO neutral by May, June, July. March forecast for Texas is below normal precip for much of the state particularly Central Tx toward DRT and above average Temps. The longer range forecasts for the Tx, OK region indicates still a bit of below normal precip mostly in western Tx and central Tx into OK being neutral (or normal rainfall amounts).
The following article discusses La Nina and tornadoes and their feeling on tornado threat and enhanced threat areas expected in 2011 versus historical record La Nina Years.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/01/big-time-la-nina-tornado-and-spring-flood-season-possible/
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schaefer/el_nino.htm
The following article discusses winter ENSO neutral conditions associated with increased activity for tornadoes in OK/KS/TN/GA. That is based primarily on a winter study; however since it is said we may transition to ENSO neutral later this Spring/Summer this may be pertinent to some degree. Excerpt: "
A statistically significant trend for stronger, longer-track tornadoes to occur during La Niña and neutral winters compared to El Niño winters is seen"
DISCLAIMER: That was based on a winter study..so there may be NO relationship to Spring / Summer tornado activity.
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...rOF6YD&sig=AHIEtbRpyFD0pOZokR9WRDteT0_9aYy06A
Here is an excerpt from last years on Stormtrack where I discussed the 2010 season and the ENSO Neutral issue supposedly beginning around Apr-May. Remember that April/May is when we started seeing more tornadic activity in the TX panhandle and OK (2 High Risks). I'm not sure if we ended up getting ENSO neutral during that period, but it would be nice to find out based on our active pattern at the time. Last year's Excerpt follows:
B) According to the Climate Prediction Center forecast for eventual transition to Neutral phase in the coming months (Apr, May, June) and the study indicates that neutral phase is associated with higher than normal tornado activity as compared to El Nino, and La Nina. In particular it notes that Oklahoma and Kansas have much more activity. Since this ENSO neutral transition to the region of OK / KS correlates with the traditional climatological region of tornadic activity migrating to that area by May/June to me that could be reason to assume that when or as ENSO transitions to neutral if that occurs Apr-June as forecast that for chasing OK/KS may be the place to be for more numerous tornado activity, including stronger and likely more long tracked tornadoes. That's the dream come true for chasers...but as forecasters such as yourself Rich that may not bode well for the public in these places.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
...and they state we're in La Nina with that expected to maintain or transition to ENSO neutral by May, June, July. March forecast for Texas is below normal precip for much of the state particularly Central Tx toward DRT and above average Temps. The longer range forecasts for the Tx, OK region indicates still a bit of below normal precip mostly in western Tx and central Tx into OK being neutral (or normal rainfall amounts).
The following article discusses La Nina and tornadoes and their feeling on tornado threat and enhanced threat areas expected in 2011 versus historical record La Nina Years.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/01/big-time-la-nina-tornado-and-spring-flood-season-possible/
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/schaefer/el_nino.htm
The following article discusses winter ENSO neutral conditions associated with increased activity for tornadoes in OK/KS/TN/GA. That is based primarily on a winter study; however since it is said we may transition to ENSO neutral later this Spring/Summer this may be pertinent to some degree. Excerpt: "
A statistically significant trend for stronger, longer-track tornadoes to occur during La Niña and neutral winters compared to El Niño winters is seen"
DISCLAIMER: That was based on a winter study..so there may be NO relationship to Spring / Summer tornado activity.
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...rOF6YD&sig=AHIEtbRpyFD0pOZokR9WRDteT0_9aYy06A
Here is an excerpt from last years on Stormtrack where I discussed the 2010 season and the ENSO Neutral issue supposedly beginning around Apr-May. Remember that April/May is when we started seeing more tornadic activity in the TX panhandle and OK (2 High Risks). I'm not sure if we ended up getting ENSO neutral during that period, but it would be nice to find out based on our active pattern at the time. Last year's Excerpt follows:
B) According to the Climate Prediction Center forecast for eventual transition to Neutral phase in the coming months (Apr, May, June) and the study indicates that neutral phase is associated with higher than normal tornado activity as compared to El Nino, and La Nina. In particular it notes that Oklahoma and Kansas have much more activity. Since this ENSO neutral transition to the region of OK / KS correlates with the traditional climatological region of tornadic activity migrating to that area by May/June to me that could be reason to assume that when or as ENSO transitions to neutral if that occurs Apr-June as forecast that for chasing OK/KS may be the place to be for more numerous tornado activity, including stronger and likely more long tracked tornadoes. That's the dream come true for chasers...but as forecasters such as yourself Rich that may not bode well for the public in these places.
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