2011-05-22 Joplin, MO tornado thread

[Bob Hartig]

foxnews and cnn have been reporting they had 20 minutes of warning time, why so many people died is beyond me, with 20 minutes warning time, there shouldn't have been any fatalities. People are just not paying attention and/or taking the warnings seriously.

Lack of regard for the warnings was no doubt part of the mix in Joplin, and it will be wherever fatalities occur. I read an interview with a guy in Birmhingham who repeated the stock phrase about getting no warning. Turns out the alarms had sounded but he completely ignored them. What kind of warning was he looking for--a NWS official to come knocking on his door and escort him to the basement? Even the five-star, platinum-plated, world-class warning system we've got can't fix stupid.

However, other factors also come into play, some which have already been addressed here. For one thing, a person at the beginning of a tornado's damage path doesn't have the same lead time as someone three or four miles downstream. So when the media talk about 20 minutes warning time, I have to ask, "For whom?"

There's also the matter of where and how people seek shelter. Is their safe place truly safe?

Finally, there's the simple reality that in a large, violent tornado moving through a heavily populated community, people are going to die, period. They can do all the right stuff and still wind up dead. You can find plenty of photos of basements filled with cement blocks and other large, sharp, heavy, nasty debris. It doesn't do much good to hide under a sturdy workbench if a car lands on top of it.

 

[Jason Harris]

From this video, it looks like the wedge developed rapidly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

 

[jeremy wilson]

foxnews and cnn have been reporting they had 20 minutes of warning time, why so many people died is beyond me, with 20 minutes warning time, there shouldn't have been any fatalities. People are just not paying attention and/or taking the warnings seriously.

If everyone took shelter exactly like they were supposed to (center room,bathroom,closet) then there still would have been mass casualties. This was an instantaneous violent wedge that was rain-wrapped and seemed to be moving very fast. Yes, if more would have paid attention the toll may have been less but not by much I'm guessing.

Bottom line is this, this was a tornado that is about as bad as it gets going through the most densely populated area of a 50,000 plus town. To say there shouldn't have been any fatalities is a quiet an overstatement.

 

[Todd Friskey]

There was at least a 20 minute heads up for the city concerning this destructive tornado. I was at home getting ready to head to work when the tornado sirens went off. They were very loud and they were sounding them all over the city. I know the citizens of Joplin had to have heard the sirens! However, I do not think with a tornado of this magnitude it would not have made much difference there still would have been casualties. We do not have any public shelters and like I stated in my previous post most homes in the city do not have basements or cellars. From what I am hearing there were quite a few deaths that occurred within vehicles. The outer edge of the circulation was about 10 blocks from my house.

 

[jeremy wilson]

There was at least a 20 minute heads up for the city concerning this destructive tornado. I was at home getting ready to head to work when the tornado sirens went off. They were very loud and they were sounding them all over the city. I know the citizens of Joplin had to have heard the sirens! However, I do not think with a tornado of this magnitude it would not have made much difference there still would have been casualties. We do not have any public shelters and like I stated in my previous post most homes in the city do not have basements or cellars. From what I am hearing there were quite a few deaths that occurred within vehicles. The outer edge of the circulation was about 10 blocks from my house.

Todd, I don't think I've ever seen so many trashed vehicles. Usually you see a few cars mangled to the extent of f4/f5 damage with one of these rare events. But it seems like there is F4/F5 car damage everywhere. When I looked at satellite images of Joplin and where the tornado went through I guess this could explain it. But that means a lot of these folks were at home if their cars were there. I'm guessing the death toll could rise dramatically if this is true. Would most people being at home on Sunday at this time of day be a good assessment? And have you heard about missing?

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I just got home from Joplin taking a generator and lights to a friend of mine whose house was hit by the tornado, he lived up on 26th street. I really am not in the mood to type out much, the videos and pictures have done no justice to show the extent of the devastation. My heart is broken tonight for all of those impacted by the tornado in Joplin, I saw destruction I don't really care to ever see again. The realization of what I saw hasn't set in yet, but I know it's going to later on.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

If everyone took shelter exactly like they were supposed to (center room,bathroom,closet) then there still would have been mass casualties. This was an instantaneous violent wedge that was rain-wrapped and seemed to be moving very fast. Yes, if more would have paid attention the toll may have been less but not by much I'm guessing.

Bottom line is this, this was a tornado that is about as bad as it gets going through the most densely populated area of a 50,000 plus town. To say there shouldn't have been any fatalities is a quiet an overstatement.

judging by this video,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

it was plainly visible, so rain wrapped had nothing to do with it. moving fast yes, violent yes. but with that amount of warning time, there's no reason why the casualty number is as high as it is. Greensburg was EF-5, went straight through the center of town late at night, and only 14 were killed. granted the population was much smaller, the warnings still got to them well in advance and loss of life was minimized. This tornado is on pace to break the single most deadly tornado ever in recorded US History. In this day and age with the technology we have, the resources we have, and the extreme early warnings, this is simply unacceptable. Somehow, the public has to be educated and the message gotten across.

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

I just got home from Joplin taking a generator and lights to a friend of mine whose house was hit by the tornado, he lived up on 26th street. I really am not in the mood to type out much, the videos and pictures have done no justice to show the extent of the devastation. My heart is broken tonight for all of those impacted by the tornado in Joplin, I saw destruction I don't really care to ever see again. The realization of what I saw hasn't set in yet, but I know it's going to later on.

26th street is awful. I was over on 26th and Kentucky Sunday evening helping a guy dig through the rubble in search of an uncle. The house was just splinters and shards of wood and personal belongings and it was moved a good 30 feet off the foundation. We found his uncle's car keys and cell phone, both cars were in what was left of the garage, but we could not locate his uncle in the rubble, hopefully he made it to a neighbors basement, and then to a shelter for the night, it was so gut wrenching to see the look on that young man's face after the search was called off. I think I cried for about 20 minutes as I walked back towards my car after it was advised by police to leave the area because of gas leaks. It was just such a hopeless feeling, knowing there were people unconscious in that rubble that we couldn't see, hear or rescue, some dying, some seriously injured. On the drive back to Nashville, I've repeatedly asked myself, did I do enough? The images burned into my memory were horrific. I cried a few times in the car on the highway as I left....it was just such an emotional powerful feeling.

I've seen tornado damage before on tv, and in person at my dad's old work in Kansas City in 03, but I've never seen anything like this. I couldn't bring myself to take pictures, it just felt so wrong, and I had no inclination to anger or upset those whose lives had just been turned upside down.

 

[Todd Friskey]

judging by this video,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

it was plainly visible, so rain wrapped had nothing to do with it. moving fast yes, violent yes. but with that amount of warning time, there's no reason why the casualty number is as high as it is. Greensburg was EF-5, went straight through the center of town, and only 14 were killed. granted the population was much smaller, the warnings still got to them well in advance and loss of life was minimized. This tornado is on pace to break the single most deadly tornado ever in recorded US History. In this day and age with the technology we have, the resources we have, and the extreme early warnings, this is simply unacceptable. Somehow, the public has to be educated and the message gotten across.

Drew, I agree that the public needs to be better educated but I still feel there would of been multiple casualties or at least serious injuries regardless. Now in regards to that tornado when it was coming at my workplace it was partially rain wrapped. As a spotter I do have a trained eye. I was outside on the phone warning my daughter who was miles away about a possible funnel cloud sighting. Then I had to cut her off and run for cover, for out of the corner of my eye I could barely make out what appeared to be a fast moving shape that was somewhat obscured.

 

[jeremy wilson]

judging by this video,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

it was plainly visible, so rain wrapped had nothing to do with it. moving fast yes, violent yes. but with that amount of warning time, there's no reason why the casualty number is as high as it is. Greensburg was EF-5, went straight through the center of town, and only 14 were killed. granted the population was much smaller, the warnings still got to them well in advance and loss of life was minimized. This tornado is on pace to break the single most deadly tornado ever in recorded US History. In this day and age with the technology we have, the resources we have, and the extreme early warnings, this is simply unacceptable. Somehow, the public has to be educated and the message gotten across.

Several chasers, Greg Forbes and radar would tend to disagree with you on the rain wrapped aspect of this. I understand that it was visible at points but the amount of precip showing up on radar around the hook had to obscure it from several angles. Not to mention none of us educated chasers/spotters expected a Bowdle wedge touching down from a cell that looked like that on radar in previous scans.

Drew, the public in America is as educated as it's gonna get on tornado warnings and risks. All they have to do is turn on TWC, Storm Chasers or one of 1000 other shows dedicated to WX. It's not awareness, it's the human aspect on things that causes them to stand outside during a PDS tornado warned supercell. In the great words of Joe, " I wanna see, I wanna see!" (sorry for the twister reference)

 

[Ben Toms]

judging by this video,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

it was plainly visible, so rain wrapped had nothing to do with it. moving fast yes, violent yes. but with that amount of warning time, there's no reason why the casualty number is as high as it is. Greensburg was EF-5, went straight through the center of town late at night, and only 14 were killed. granted the population was much smaller, the warnings still got to them well in advance and loss of life was minimized. This tornado is on pace to break the single most deadly tornado ever in recorded US History. In this day and age with the technology we have, the resources we have, and the extreme early warnings, this is simply unacceptable. Somehow, the public has to be educated and the message gotten across.

I think you need to go back and read the thread...and also re-watch that video. At the end of the video, the tornado becomes partially wrapped in precipitation. I haven't seen any videos of the tornado in the actual city of Joplin so there is no way you can without a doubt say it was not rain wrapped. In addition to that, I'm assuming you are aware of how fast this tornado developed. The exact video you linked shows a potentially tornadic supercell changing into a violent, wedged out storm in a matter of a few moments. How do you efficiently get the message across to the public that this is such a dangerous situation when just before you were saying there was a *possible* tornado on the ground? Yes, it is terrible what happened. And yes, I wish not so many people had died. But in all reality this probably couldn't have been prevented. Plain and simple.

 

[Damen Winslow]

It really baffles my mind that 116 people have died in this tornado. We have some of the best warning systems in place than we did just 10-20 years ago, a period in which several violent tornadoes also hit populated areas with much less tragic results; Wichita/Andover 1991, Moore 1999 tornado to name a few. This year has seen death tolls that I thought we would never again see after the 1950's. It's worth more research because I honestly believe this years storms (Tuscaloosa and Joplin so far have only been rated EF4) weren't as powerful as the ones in Moore and Andover which were F5 with winds of up to 250+ MPH.

 

[Todd Friskey]

Todd, I don't think I've ever seen so many trashed vehicles. Usually you see a few cars mangled to the extent of f4/f5 damage with one of these rare events. But it seems like there is F4/F5 car damage everywhere. When I looked at satellite images of Joplin and where the tornado went through I guess this could explain it. But that means a lot of these folks were at home if their cars were there. I'm guessing the death toll could rise dramatically if this is true. Would most people being at home on Sunday at this time of day be a good assessment? And have you heard about missing?

Jeremy, I think if it had been lets say a Monday casualties may have been worse in cars. Residents would have been on their way home from work, headed to work or out to eat. There are people still missing and there are a couple of created Facebook pages out there asking for help. We got a recorded phone message from the school district asking us to report that our children are safe so they can have a head count.

Also according to the city chamber during a work week our day population swells to nearly 200,000, people coming in from four states to work.
St. John's RMC alone has approximately 2000 employees.

 

[Mike Smith]

However, other factors also come into play, some which have already been addressed here. For one thing, a person at the beginning of a tornado's damage path doesn't have the same lead time as someone three or four miles downstream. So when the media talk about 20 minutes warning time, I have to ask, "For whom?"

Warning issued at 5:17pm. Tornado was in west JLN at 5:43pm and central Joplin at 5:46pm.

 

[Boris Konon]

And this could be an interesting topic of discussion! I am of the opinion that the death toll would actually be LOWER back then based on the fact that the building construction of the time was far different than today, where the mighty dollar dictates the quality of the construction. If the "large box" stores did not exist today OR if there construction was different, I don't think the death rate would be as high. Again, this would be an excellent topic for Tim Marshall to add his expertise.

Not to mention the population growth since that time. By default, population growth
puts more people at risk each year, not only from tornadoes, but all the other dangers
out there, weather related or not. So the odds of higher death tolls are always
increasing, unfortunately.