2011-05-22 Joplin, MO tornado thread

[PDailey]

I'd like to know just how much lead time the people of Joplin had. We've heard this 17-22 min figure thrown around, but doesn't that include the first tornado warning for the northern part of Joplin? I'm thinking the southern section of Joplin only had about 7-10 mins. for the real tornado.

 

[rdale]

I totally agree. Moreover people tend to get complacent over time. An interesting statistic to me would be how many times has a specific area like Joplin been placed under a tornado warning over the past x years?

Per the IEM COW, Jasper Co has had 2 non-verified TORs this year prior to yesterday's, 9 non-verified last year, 15 non-verified in 2009. The SGF office has about an 85% false alarm rate over that timeframe as a whole.

 

[Mike Moore]

Per the IEM COW, Jasper Co has had 2 non-verified TORs this year prior to yesterday's, 9 non-verified last year, 15 non-verified in 2009. The SGF office has about an 85% false alarm rate over that timeframe as a whole.

Thanks. See to me that's a pretty good rate, but figuring the 15% success rate (not sure that's the right term) over a 640 square mile area still means many people in the warned areas still never have so much as a potted plant knocked over.

As far as lead time I've heard 20 mins reported... but how about for someone shopping in Walmart? Did they get any kind of warning?

 

[Todd Friskey]

I am not sure what to write here with so much to say. The devastation is incredible! Some of the homes I saw had nothing but their foundation remaining. The majority of Joplin homes do not basements. Maybe this will change if the decision to rebuild takes place. Many managers at commercial stores did not take the tornado warnings too serious. They were more concerned about running their business until the tornado was on them. One example my daughter and son-in-law are trained storm spotters. They went into Golden Corral seeking cover and had to convince the management to get the customers to safety. I had just arrived at St. Johns RMC (work) when the tornado hit, I saw the beast for just a moment. I hid just inside a stairwell next to the tunnel elevator. The inside of the hospital building looks like, a bomb went off on every floor. All the stairwells from the first floor thru the ninth floor had debris that had to be shifted around in order to move patients. I am not a building engineer but I would assume the building can be fixed? Keep us in your prayers.

 

[Adam Simone]

I see a lot of comments talking about what's wrong with the system and how could so many people die yesterday but I think it's safe to say if this tornado would have hit back in the 1950's or heck maybe even 20 years ago the death toll could be approaching 500 or more. No matter how good the system is or how much warning time people have your still going to have people who, a) dont care about the warnings because they don't think there's actually a tornado, b) have no where to go if there is a warning, c) are in a location where they can't hear sirens and can't afford high tech mobile devices to warn them. I got into an argument yesterday with a guy who was bad mouthing storm chasers, but it's storm chasers that help warn people that there is a tornado on the ground. Chasers who stream live video to TV stations allow the public to see what is actually coming. Technology like that has helped save lives a lot in my opinion.

 

[rdale]

Walmart has a very good weather alert system. I certainly won't confirm that it activated in time, but I think in general it's going to be better alerted in Walmart than in Ma-n-Pa's.

 

[rdale]

I got into an argument yesterday with a guy who was bad mouthing storm chasers, but it's storm chasers that help warn people that there is a tornado on the ground.

I think this is better left to another thread... The warning was out well in advance, without any chaser input, and the first tornado report (per the NWSChat room log) came from a spotter / law enforcement before any chaser reports...

http://cadiiitalk.blogspot.com/2011/05/growing-sense-of-revulsion.html

There's nothing wrong with chasing, just watch how much you use the "saving lives and doing research" card.

 

[Greg Higgins]

Does code require such buildings to at least have a safe room/cellar?

I am unaware of any of the national building codes that mandate safe rooms. There may be LOCAL building codes that require safe rooms.

 

[Greg Higgins]

Not sure if they are required by every construction code, but I haven't been in one that doesn't have a storm saferoom that would hold most if not all of the people in the store at the time.

Just to clarify, are you saying that there are safe rooms in the "box stores" that you have been in??

 

[Greg Higgins]

Walmart has a very good weather alert system. I certainly won't confirm that it activated in time, but I think in general it's going to be better alerted in Walmart than in Ma-n-Pa's.

I don't doubt that they do have a plan in place. The concern I have, especially after yesterday, is that people are seeking shelter in buildings that are not designed for the type of protection they need. I think the number of fatalities that occurred in the large "box" stores bears research on several different levels.

 

[Greg Higgins]

I see a lot of comments talking about what's wrong with the system and how could so many people die yesterday but I think it's safe to say if this tornado would have hit back in the 1950's or heck maybe even 20 years ago the death toll could be approaching 500 or more. No matter how good the system is or how much warning time people have your still going to have people who, a) don't care about the warnings because they don't think there's actually a tornado, b) have no where to go if there is a warning, c) are in a location where they can't hear sirens and can't afford high tech mobile devices to warn them. I got into an argument yesterday with a guy who was bad mouthing storm chasers, but it's storm chasers that help warn people that there is a tornado on the ground. Chasers who stream live video to TV stations allow the public to see what is actually coming. Technology like that has helped save lives a lot in my opinion.

And this could be an interesting topic of discussion! I am of the opinion that the death toll would actually be LOWER back then based on the fact that the building construction of the time was far different than today, where the mighty dollar dictates the quality of the construction. If the "large box" stores did not exist today OR if there construction was different, I don't think the death rate would be as high. Again, this would be an excellent topic for Tim Marshall to add his expertise.

 

[Jason Bolt]

here on the ground we were looking for an archive of the warning text. I don't know where to find it. If one of you does please PM me or post it here and I will check back when I get a free minute thanks.

 

[Jesse Risley]

here on the ground we were looking for an archive of the warning text. I don't know where to find it. If one of you does please PM me or post it here and I will check back when I get a free minute thanks.

The warning information, including text and statement updates, can be found here:
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2011-O-NEW-KSGF-TO-W-0031
http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/#2011-O-NEW-KSGF-TO-W-0032

 

[Drew.Gardonia]

I'd like to know just how much lead time the people of Joplin had. We've heard this 17-22 min figure thrown around, but doesn't that include the first tornado warning for the northern part of Joplin? I'm thinking the southern section of Joplin only had about 7-10 mins. for the real tornado.

foxnews and cnn have been reporting they had 20 minutes of warning time, why so many people died is beyond me, with 20 minutes warning time, there shouldn't have been any fatalities. People are just not paying attention and/or taking the warnings seriously.

 

[MClarkson]

" People are just not paying attention and/or taking the warnings seriously."

Thats probably part of it. Theres a lot of tornado warnings that are essentially false alarms. But in this case the storm organized rapidly just before striking the city, and theres no obvious way to detect such an event while also lowing false alarm rates. Based on a some of the damage shots it looks like the core of this storm was fairly wide, placing more buildings in the higher end winds. Also I think with this kind of higher end damage in a high population density region some losses are inevitable.