2011-05-22 Joplin, MO tornado thread

[Boris Konon]

Lack of regard for the warnings was no doubt part of the mix in Joplin, and it will be wherever fatalities occur. I read an interview with a guy in Birmhingham who repeated the stock phrase about getting no warning. Turns out the alarms had sounded but he completely ignored them. What kind of warning was he looking for--a NWS official to come knocking on his door and escort him to the basement? Even the five-star, platinum-plated, world-class warning system we've got can't fix stupid.

However, other factors also come into play, some which have already been addressed here. For one thing, a person at the beginning of a tornado's damage path doesn't have the same lead time as someone three or four miles downstream. So when the media talk about 20 minutes warning time, I have to ask, "For whom?"

There's also the matter of where and how people seek shelter. Is their safe place truly safe?

Finally, there's the simple reality that in a large, violent tornado moving through a heavily populated community, people are going to die, period. They can do all the right stuff and still wind up dead. You can find plenty of photos of basements filled with cement blocks and other large, sharp, heavy, nasty debris. It doesn't do much good to hide under a sturdy workbench if a car lands on top of it.

Well put. Thing is I seem to get the impression sometimes from the media/public that there shouldn't be any tornado fatalities at all, and keep asking the tired question "how could this happen???" and then go on to somehow blame something or someone, when it just was a very bad situation/set of circumstances (rain wrapped, rapidly developing, large tornado close to a city in this case), that no one can do anything about.

 

[Elaine Spencer]

Some years ago the city I live in (Springfield IL) was hit by an F2 tornado, about 1/2 a mile wide at its height, at around 8:30 p.m. on a Sunday night (3/12/06). This tornado went through heavily populated residential and commercial areas also, but there were NO deaths or even any serious injuries.

One of the reasons cited at the time for the lack of casualties was that the tornado hit on a Sunday evening when most people were home and not out on the streets commuting to or from work, shopping, going out to eat, etc. (The other obvious reason was that this tornado was "only" an F2.) The assumption was that casualties would have been much worse had the same storm struck on a weekday around rush hour, or in the middle of the night after most people were in bed.

Regarding Joplin, I have read at least one story noting that many dead were found in an area dubbed "restaurant row". The tornado also hit right at the dinner hour. If people are sitting down to eat, or busy preparing a meal at home, they may not be watching the skies or watching TV as closely as they normally would, unless they have a TV/radio in their kitchen, or the restaurant or bar they are in has a TV within sight that is tuned to the Weather Channel or a local station. Since the Joplin storm developed so quickly, could that slight pause in paying attention to the weather have made a difference?

 

[PDailey]

judging by this video,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

That thing went from nothing to 1/2 mile wide EF4 in about five seconds. Is that a record? I recall Jarrell(TX) went from a rope to a monster killer very quickly as well.

 

[Mike Moore]

Regarding Joplin, I have read at least one story noting that many dead were found in an area dubbed "restaurant row". The tornado also hit right at the dinner hour. If people are sitting down to eat, or busy preparing a meal at home, they may not be watching the skies or watching TV as closely as they normally would, unless they have a TV/radio in their kitchen, or the restaurant or bar they are in has a TV within sight that is tuned to the Weather Channel or a local station. Since the Joplin storm developed so quickly, could that slight pause in paying attention to the weather have made a difference?

Absolutely a great point. Take your typical franchised casual dining restaurant; It's dinner time and everyone is busy. Would anyone on the restaurant's staff have been assigned to watch for weather warnings? Do they have a plan if a tornado approaches?

Maybe yes on both counts... BUT even if the restaurant had say 2 minutes of warning that a tornado impact was imminent... what good would that do them? In a typical Applebee's, or Chili's, etc you have nowhere to put people. The walk-in cooler is about the best bet and you're just not going to be able to fit 125 people let alone get them there quickly in any sort of safe fashion. Fleeing in cars is obviously a much worse idea.

I'm not sure there is a good answer. Powerful tornados like this remind us that, no matter what we believe, we're simply not in control.

 

[Craig Norris]

From this video, it looks like the wedge developed rapidly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

By my count this shows a genesis from rope tornado to a giant mature and violent wedge in 1 min. and 20 seconds. That is absolutely unreal. The parameters for this storm are sure to be studied to see what caused this accelerated process.

 

[Mark Manchester]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned, or if it was I missed it, was the fact that Joplin HS was holding graduation that day as well, which means possibly thousands of people from out of town who simply aren't aware of what county they're in. They may have heard plenty of warnings issued and not known it was for the area they were in.

 

[Craig Norris]

Joplin aerial damage path

I haven't seen this video linked. Sorry if this is a duplicate

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWNwZ1IY2p0&feature=player_embedded

 

[Greg Higgins]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned, or if it was I missed it, was the fact that Joplin HS was holding graduation that day as well, which means possibly thousands of people from out of town who simply aren't aware of what county they're in. They may have heard plenty of warnings issued and not known it was for the area they were in.

Just as a FYI...the graduation was held at Missouri Southern University, well away from the path of the storm.......thankfully!

 

[Mark Manchester]

Just as a FYI...the graduation was held at Missouri Southern University, well away from the path of the storm.......thankfully!

True, and I don't know what time graduation was held, but considering the time of day the tornado struck I would think it would have been over. I was just considering the number of out-of-towners as one of the possible reasons the death toll was as high as it is.

 

[Brian McWatters]

Warning issued at 5:17pm. Tornado was in west JLN at 5:43pm and central Joplin at 5:46pm.

For what it's worth, here is the warning text:

776

WFUS53 KSGF 222217

TORSGF

KSC021-MOC097-145-222300-

/O.NEW.KSGF.TO.W.0031.110522T2217Z-110522T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

517 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN NEWTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 600 PM CDT.

* AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BAXTER SPRINGS...CLIFF VILLAGE...DENNIS

ACRES...DIAMOND...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...FIDELITY...GALENA...IRON

GATES...JOPLIN...LEAWOOD...LOWELL...REDINGS MILL...RIVERTON...

SAGINAW...SHOAL CREEK DRIVE...SHOAL CREEK ESTATES...SHOAL CREEK

ESTATE AND SILVER CREEK.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 13 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY

THIS TORNADO.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.

THERE IS ADDITIONAL TORNADO WARNING FOR A SEPARATE STORM ACROSS

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN JASPER COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3716 9479 3707 9426 3697 9430 3701 9479

TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 247DEG 36KT 3708 9470

HAIL 1.75IN

$$

WISE

 

[jmyhren]

This event hits "close to home" for me personally for a number of reasons. I'm responsible for disaster recovery for a retail chain with 90 locations in 7 midwestern states. With our breadth reaching from northern Wisconsin, through Iowa, Illinois, southern Missouri (not too far from Joplin), central and western Kentucky, north and central Indiana, and Ohio, every single time a weather event breaks out, we're impacted at least some where in some way. It's sometimes fun to watch a severe thunderstorm make its way from central Iowa through northern Illinois, through the Chicago metro and out of Indiana, as we can actually "watch" the stormtrack with our proactive power monitoring system that alerts us when stores have power "blips" or power outages.

In 2003 our headquarters suffered an extended power outage and facility damage from a microburst, and thats when we began taking weather related disaster preparedness and disaster recovery seriously. But unfortunately, we were only thinking about our headquarters.

Then in 2005 I just happened to be driving back to northern Illinois from visiting family in central Missouri and criss crossed paths with the two March 2005 Springfield, IL tornados that were previously mentioned in this thread. One of those tornados essentially leveled one of our retail locations in Springfield on Wabash avenue. I did not know until I was near Bloomington and started getting the calls. I missed that tornado in my vehicle by about 60 seconds. It was dark and the tornado was rain wrapped.

I was visiting family in MO once again for Easter this year, and on Good Friday I was returning to central MO from Six Flags St. Louis when I was once again literally minutes away from crossing the path of the tornado that hit Lambert Airport. Suffered a cracked windshield from the massive hail, and was a little scared, but that was the extent of my injuries.

My chasing has basically come to an end for a while with two young children in the house now, however I have never successfully chased a storm that produced a tornado anywhere near my target area. But I most certainly have inadvertently chased them when I was doing everything but chasing!

Sunday at almost precisely the same time the tornado hit Joplin, we had 4 now confirmed tornados here in northern Illinois. I subscribe to several paid weather services as I must be at a heightened state of readiness for my professional responsibilities. My focus has always been on response. Never on preparedness. I got the automated phone call that the cell that was entering Winnebago county, IL had just been tornado warned, and the TV blacked out and the sirens went off about 2 minutes later. I drug the wife and kids down to the shelter in the basement and we waited out what was a non-event for our neighborhood, but quite an event for some others. Then the news starting pouring in about Joplin.

Fast forward to now, after hearing the local Wal-Marts went "Code Black" huddling shoppers to the center of the stores, watching the Fas Trip convenience store video (actually just listening to the audio) about a dozen times, I've become reinvigorated to take action.

Our retail locations are mostly convenience stores and truck stops. We have absolutely NO plan for any type of weather event. Our people are trained well for what to do when held up, robbed, if a customer has a heart attack in the store, etc. But we don't give them anything for severe weather, most importantly an imminent tornado.

As I think about it, I honestly have no idea where I would send them. The walk-in coolers in our stores are front faced with glass. Perhaps the restrooms or the store managers office? But you can only fit about 5-10 people tops in either of those locations.

I'm not asking you guys for advice, (although if you have some I'll take it!), I'm more responding to the discussion centered around what I'm reading between the lines. The weather community at large is a bit shocked that here and now in 2011 we can have a tornado event with this level of casualties. The warning infrastructure in place now is better than has ever been in place in the history of this planet, but yet we suffer two events in one season so far that are creating new entries in the record books.

Based on my personal and professional experiences, I can tell you that much more focus needs to be placed on where is safe, when to go there, and how long to stay there. Basements, bathtubs, and ditches are all the general public knows. The folks in the gas station in Joplin had a little bit of luck on their side, and they did the best thing they could given their location. I really don't know what our people would have done had that been one of our stores. We've never told them. There's no basement, bathtub, or ditch at your average gas station.

I have a feeling we're by far not the only ones in this boat. Public education about specific locations to go in specific settings can help. Where do you go if you're in a restaurant? Where do you go if you're at a sporting event? Where do you go if you're at a gas station? In the car? On an Interstate?

We can't educate them when they are in our stores, but if they hear it enough when warnings are issued, when they're watching storm chasing shows on TV, etc it will most certainly save lives when the next inevitable powerful tornado hits a major populated area.

 

[hazelmaryjackson]

I have been following this thread with interest. What I am chiefly concerned about is the Joplin hospital's tardiness in taking preventive action. They apparently have a Grey action plan which involves for example moving beds away from the windows. This was not activated until ten minutes before the tornado struck, according to the hospital or five minutes if you believe the staff. Or not at all according to some staff. Most of the staff seem to have noticed the tornado by inspection out of the window. Yet the fire chief says, and records appear to show, there was a 20 minute warning when the sirens were going.

Can I also say, living in England, how struck I have been by how flimsy many American buildings are, by UK standards. There is a vid of some stormchasers driving through Joplin just ahead of the tornado and many of the structures look easily demolished. I am not saying an EF4 would not clear everything in its path, but surely if you get tornadoes in the region, you need to make sure that you listen to warnings and have a safe place to go to.

My son who lives in NYC tells me the very simple constuction of US homes in the south also means they will be cheaper to rebuild and that a town is unlikely to be hit twice. (You can tell he works in the financial sector...) Thisrather cynical view seems to be sharedb y the US Insurance and Building sectors, from what I can make out. . Surely there is more to the impact of a tornado than mere rebuilding costs?

 

[Kurt Wayne]

- We get Joplin news where I live. News reports say 1,500 people are still unaccounted for as of this morning.

- The man who runs the self storage place where we get some package shipments is from McDonald County, MO between us (Bella Vista, AR) and Joplin. The big whirl Sunday actually was right astride the Jasper/Newton (MO) county line (Joplin's in both counties) and as such was just two counties north of us. Our friend said his cousin, a nurse at Freeman Hospital on the Newton side hasn't been able to leave work since Sunday, in spite of the fact that she doesn't know where her husband is, doesn't know where her car is and doesn't know if she still has a house.

 

[L Kimbrel]

"Rapidly" is something of an understatement. Here's a quick timeline on the intensification that I pulled form this video:
at 11 (seconds): First visible funnel appears
10 seconds later @ 21: second funnel appears
10 seconds later @ 31: multiple vortices
10 seconds later @ 41: fully enveloped large tornado on ground
At 1:11, one minute (!) after the first vortice appears, a violent wedge tornado is churning across the frame.
It's hard to see what even a highly technological, weather-savvy society can be expected to accomplish as far as advance warning in this kind of scenario.

From this video, it looks like the wedge developed rapidly:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XT7CtF5ljxY&feature=related

 

[Michael Nicolaou]

It's hard to see what even a highly technological, weather-savvy society can be expected to accomplish as far as advance warning in this kind of scenario.

I think you are missing the objective of the warning that was provided by the local NWS office in this case and others. The warning is not meant or intended to bring notice that a "wedge" tornado was approaching, just that,

"* AT 514 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO NEAR RIVERTON...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF BAXTER SPRINGS...MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. "

I am not aware of warnings for particular types of tornados (wedge, rope, multi-vortice, etc) being issued, and only rarely do we see the oft discussed "Tornado Emergency" wording. The fundamental objective of the Tornado Warning issued by the local NWS is to report that either a tornado has been spotted with ground truth, or a storm that is capable to produce a tornado (ie radar indicated) is entering a specific locale. Whether the tornado evolves into a specific form or not is just not part of the current warning system.

I repeat my previous post that the warning provided by the local office was well in advance of the storm's approach to Joplin and even based on the BaseHunter video it appears that the cell was warned well in advance of their first video capture.