Looks to be an interesting day. The most favorable location to me appears to be northeast KS/extreme southeast NE. The warm front looks like it could be a red herring today, as Nsharp 12Z ETA soundings show pretty minimal low-level shear, which is borne out in the plots of 0-1km helicity on weather.cod.edu. Maybe if the low-level wind fields up there verify a little stronger it can happen, but right now everything looks most favorable for storms that can fire along the dryline and move into the weakly capped environment forecast to be northeast of Salina by 00Z (now if only that weak cap will verify...). The hodographs I plotted up for that region are very interesting (and downright scary by 03Z) given the LCL heights below 1km present there, even if we didn't have the 4000-5000 CAPE also forecast by the ETA.
My thinking is that storms will fire around 22-23Z near Salina and take a couple hours to really get going as they move into the more favorable environment east-northeast of there. Also, the shear should get even better through the course of the evening, so the storms may get progressively stronger until the cap gets too strong for them or they merge into an MCS.
To all those going out, have fun, and hopefully things will pan out today.
