2004-05-22 FCST: OK/KS/MO/IA Area

[Lance Maxwell]

Alright, well I am relegated to nowcasting duties here today for a first time this season, hopefully I will get Mike Gribble and Jason Montano in the right place. Too bad I don't know how to set up a conference call, lol.

Good luck to those out there chasing today, you have an anxious observer back here in Norman, OK.

 

[Donald Giuliano]

Looks to be an interesting day. The most favorable location to me appears to be northeast KS/extreme southeast NE. The warm front looks like it could be a red herring today, as Nsharp 12Z ETA soundings show pretty minimal low-level shear, which is borne out in the plots of 0-1km helicity on weather.cod.edu. Maybe if the low-level wind fields up there verify a little stronger it can happen, but right now everything looks most favorable for storms that can fire along the dryline and move into the weakly capped environment forecast to be northeast of Salina by 00Z (now if only that weak cap will verify...). The hodographs I plotted up for that region are very interesting (and downright scary by 03Z) given the LCL heights below 1km present there, even if we didn't have the 4000-5000 CAPE also forecast by the ETA.

My thinking is that storms will fire around 22-23Z near Salina and take a couple hours to really get going as they move into the more favorable environment east-northeast of there. Also, the shear should get even better through the course of the evening, so the storms may get progressively stronger until the cap gets too strong for them or they merge into an MCS.

To all those going out, have fun, and hopefully things will pan out today.

 

[Dan Cook]

CONSIDERED
UPGRADING SMALL AREA FROM GRI/HSI - DSM TO HIGH RISK...BUT CONCERN
OF CAP AND TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LED TO MAINTENANCE OF
MODERATE RISK. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 20Z FOR CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION
IN THIS REGION AND POSSIBLE UPGRADE.

:shock:

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...rs=hr06hr09hr12

I wonder what obscure town down there will have open seats in the library. Beatrice and Lincoln certainly won't and points west. Getting to be time to leave. Good luck to those out today.

Mike

 

[J.B. Dixon]

let this be an open invite....if you're scrambling for a place to check data on a FAST connection, or use the water closet, I will be more than happy to have a couple Stormtrack folks swinging down I-80 to stop by Casa del Dixon in Seward, just 15 minutes west of Lincoln. Mi casa su casa.

I should be sitting tight here for another couple hours before venturing out. PM me for directions if there's any takers.

Be safe, and enjoy the show

 

[Jason Montano]

I am in Fairbury, NE right now, I plan to play with the initial convection SPC speaks of and gradually move east as the afternoon plays on. Looks like East of me is where they put up the hatched area for tornados. Tepms sure are warming up looks to be one heck of a day. Also looking forward to seeing what the 18z ob shows.

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Boundary is starting to become visible on the last couple loops from OAX radar, showing up from Beatrice west through the Fairbury area.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r...0/si.koax.shtml

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Goes-12 Satellite View

I can confirm J.B.'s observations with this visible satellite view of NE and KS:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/Special/Curr...Wx/g12arm10.asp

You can see thru the higher cloud layers the low level cloud bands are forming along the NE-KS border. There's also a nice SW-NE orientation of cloud bands near the NE-KS-CO tri-state corner. Central NE and Western KS have been cloud free all morning long. Shouldn't take too long before the afternoon action will start heating up. Sit tight and Wait!! 8) LJK.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Very impressed with today's setup, currently I'm setting in Plymouth Nebraska, not far west of Beatrice, a nice little library here with internet access to get the updates. Now just waiting for initiation.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

SPC Graphics

Just look at the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for today:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

They have placed MEDIUM risk for severe weather in NE and IA. They estimated a 15% chance for tornadoes :shock: , a 25% chance for damaging winds :shock: :shock: and a 35% chance for large hail :shock: :shock: in the same general area of NE and IA.

Never mind paying $2.09 for the gas you will be using for storm chasing today, folks. It will be worth the expense. Have fun, chase safe!! 8) LJK.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Took 4 hrs to drive up here, left at 7 AM after checking the updates. Definately will be worth the trip, have my WX Worx system running watching for storm initiation. Still sitting here in Plymouth Nebraska, 20 or so miles west of Beatrice Neb waiting.

For anyone at the library in Beatrice looking at this, I'm in a Ford Taurus with Kansas plates... don't be shy to say hi.

Happy chasing all..

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...r03hr06hr09hr12

RUC has changed it's thoughts with the sfc low since I left. I'm now in Crete Nebraska with thoughts of moving west some. RUC not blowing anything till between 21-0z. Moisture really getting pulled back west and pooling in nc KS. Very temping to head that way as the ruc says the sfc low is going to sit htere and pin wheel.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana.../s1_loops/thea/

I hope the winds further east start to back real soon. Hebron looking like an ideal target at this point, but it's so much easier to error to the east then to the west. Hmmm.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Torn Watch Box set up

The NWS has posted a TORN Watch box for the NE-KS-CO Tri-State area:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=g...PSGLD&format=ci

Thunderstorm warnings were posted for three counties in Northwest CO.

GOES-12 visible satellite shows the storms in CO and Western NE clearly.
Note the area of clouds building up in Southwest NE and Western KS.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/Special/Curr...Wx/g12arm10.asp

Just got a phone call from a StormTrack chaser. My wife didn't catch your name, but since I'm stuck at home I will be staying on the computer and be watching this potential storm situation brewing.... 8) LJK.

P.M. me if you need information, will try to help you. 8)

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Michael Peregrine reports there is a great wi-fi spot in Auburn. Very fast I guess. He's having problems with logging into st right now and asked if I'd send that.

Mike

 

[Ben Pinette]

Sorry somewhat off topic regarding the area, just wondering if anyone is chasing Michigan. I'm stuck at work until after the threat has passed. So far looks like areas north of the front are getting the best support. Really no isolated cells developing south at this time. Still waiting....