2004-05-22 FCST: OK/KS/MO/IA Area

[Shane Adams]

That's all I can hope for. Why in the hell do people put every big human event in the month of May??? Weddings, graduations, vacations, blah...

Being stuck in Ardmore for a graduation until tomorrow morning, there's no hope for me getting to Nebraska tomorrow. So I guess we'll sit and bake under the cap all day in western OK tomorrow. I hate "consolation" chases.

 

[Austin Ivey]

I'm with you Jeff. The ICT afd pretty much sums it up for my purposes:

"SAT-SAT NGT:
AGAIN PREV FCST THINKING LOOKS SOLID WITH A POTENTIAL SETUP FOR SEVERE WX. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF WL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, WITH AN ATTENDANT STRONG (100 KTS) UPR JET STREAK NOSING INTO SRN KS. A N-S DRYLINE WL SET UP OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS OR PSBLY EVEN A BIT FURTHER W OF THE ETA PROGGED PSN. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS (3000 CAPE) AND 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR ARE PROGGED OVER OUR FCST AREA. A FEW DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP JUST E OF THE DRYLINE LATE IN THE PM, WITH ACTIVITY PSBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURG THE EVENING HRS AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE UPR JET MOVES OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS. "

And:
"BELIEVE THE SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER SWD INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS DURG THIS TIMEFRAME. "

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Steve Miller, Robert Hall, and I will likely be heading for NW OK tomorrow to play the dryline. Nebraska's not even an option, so I could care less about the setup there. We'll take our chances with the cap. I haven't chased now for a couple of weeks, so I'll be happy just to get out there.

Thankfully, if any storms do manage to fire along the dryline, they should remain discrete. So, despite the low tornado potential due to high LCLs (forecasted, at least), there could be some good structure opportunities.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Still up in the air for me, I haven't chased in a long time and now it's a weekend and I'm free... not sure yet if I want to play around the dryline or if I want to target more into Nebraska.. of course being at work right now I can't really look over everything but I will probably know for sure later tonight.

 

[Billy Griffin]

:shock: W O W !!! The dryline actually was able to spark a little this evening. One impressive cell signature on radar kinda north/northeast of Dodge City. No warning ever went out on it that I know of as far as tornado. Three cells actually went up just east of me and were VERY beautiful to watch as the sun set and they moved off. Hailers 'bout all they amounted to though.

With all the fun and excitement going on currently, has anyone put any more thought in tomorrow's potential "big day" ??

I suppose we're all awaiting the 1am outlook, which normally amounts to about as much a reliable forecast as throwing darts blindfolded !!

Still thinking the REAL energy and possible tornadic cells will be more towards the KS/NE line. Dryline may indeed fire after all, but I'm still concerned that there's just not enough energy to make those cells rotate and tornado. Obviously, I've been wrong many times before though.

Any thoughts ???

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I'm back on the fence for tomorrow.

Just looked at the 0Z ETA. Temps remain very warm at 850mb, warming significantly by 0Z Sunday. Originally, I felt the cap would be breakable due to the arrival of upper level support, but...

...the best vorticity at 500mb looks to be delayed until closer to Sunday morning. Granted, the ETA probably isn't picking up on the little bits of shortwave energy likely to pass overhead beforehand, but the fact that the BEST energy may arrive too late doesn't increase my confidence any.

With afternoon temps in the low to mid 90s, the cap will at least take a beating. Other side of that coin, however, is the high temp/dewpoint depression - so, pretty high-based storms if something fires.

I'm not sure. I'm in the mood to chase, but Woodward (my target) is a LONG way from DFW on this sort of conditional day. I'll admit that a couple of this evening's dryline storms looked interesting on radar and satellite, but it took until after 0Z before they really got going. With a potentially stronger cap tomorrow, I'm wondering if the long drive is worth an hour or two of chase time, especially when the chance of any tornado time is pretty much nil.

I'm going to make my decision before I go to bed...I guess I'll wait up for the 6Z Day 1 to see what the guys behind the glass think.

 

[Billy Griffin]

Currently @ home in Dumas, TX (Doom - us)

My plans for now, unless something dramatically changes, are to meet up with my chase team near DDC, then plot our course north. Maybe northern Kansas into extreme southern Nebraska will fire some big 'naders tomorrow ??

Yeah, you being in DFW is a long way just up to close to me. I think I can make the NE line in about 5-6 hours, so not too bad there.

Sure hope something is workable tomorrow in the central plains.

 

[Austin Ivey]

Yeah im borderline also for manana. The warm 850 temps are very bothersome as well as nearly 0% chance of a tornado. Worried also that good moisture will be mixed out by the time upper support may arrive, however late that ends up being.

I'm actually at the motel 6 in raton NM tonight, so that I wouldnt have to make the trek over the sangre de cristos tomorrow should I decide to go. It cuts 3 hours off a drive to kansas for me.

Anyway, like Jeff said, ill see what the spc says and take a look at morning soundings and ua profilers in order to make my final decision.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well, tomorrow is the first day of my ten day chase vacation, and it looks like it might be an exciting start. While I'm certainly hopeful that the DL chasers will get their wish for some dramatic skies out west, I will likely stick with the closer-to-home option of our friendly neighborhood quasi-stationary front in Nebraska/Iowa tomorrow. If it turns out anything like today, I'll be ecstatic by this time tomorrow night. Another high CAPE day in store, looks like ... I will most likely head north to the weaker cap/maximum heating zones, hoping that nothing will pop up over the homestead when I do.

Primary concerns that I'll be watching tomorrow: CAPE/CINH ... boundary positions, including outflow boundaries left from this massive MCS train tonight. Looks like it will turn out to be a big factor. If we end up with another grunge-fest like last Wednesday then I'll be tempted to dump all my gear and run over it. But hopefully we'll wake up tomorrow to a yellow outline on the map. ... and no matter where the convection turns up tomorrow, I will be there. All the best to everyone -

 

[David Schuttler]

I'll choose the 6-7 hour drive north rather than the 4-5 hour's west from Tulsa this go around.

 

[Joel Wright]

That boundary is going to be really well defined again tomorrow after being re-enforced by the strong outflow boundaries. With a fairly deep LP in NE which will help to enhance low level forcing I think tomorrow could be a great day to chase. It certainly won't be a boring day lol. I would target somewhere in eastern NE or northwest-north-central IA near wherever the boundary ends up. Massive CAPE to the south nosing into the sharp boundary will yeild some monsterous storms for sure. As many have pointed out this areas will be "grungy" with haze and reduced visibilities, but this still looks to be the best area. Good luck to all tomorrow!

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I'm still leaning more towards just staying home on this one, I'm just not impressed with the setup and strong cap tomorrow. Living in extreme SE KS, it'd be a heck of a drive for some marginally severe storms (hail and winds). I'll wait for my final decision in the morning after looking at the setup and see the latest discussions, but at this point I'm about 90% leaning towards not going.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Boy, SPC's 1am outlook contains some very strong wording concerning tornado potential in NEB tomorrow.....too bad my chasing partner decided to go without me without even calling!!

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW LEVEL SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND PERSISTENT STORM ROTATION FOR CELLS MOVING EAST.

NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE.

Could be very interesting.....now if I only had a way to get up to Nebraska to meet up with Jason...... :angryfire:

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I definately like the new Day 1 dicussion, by the sounding of it certainly sounds as if they're expecting a number of supercells in the Nebraska area.

I'm gonna wake my butt up at 7 AM, review the latest discussions and then probably head north to Nebraksa, shouldn't take but 5 hours or so.. given I'm just 2.5 hrs south of KC.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

On another note, considering I will not be chasing tomorrow thanks to my partner, lol, I should be available to nowcast should anybody need it......i will warn you though, if the Rangers are in another close game with the hated Yanks, you might have to ring a couple of times, lol.