2004-05-22 FCST: OK/KS/MO/IA Area

[Joey Ketcham]

Will be an awesome time for me to put to use my wxworx system. Right now I'm mapping out on my GPS my targeted areas, I'm thinking somewhere along the line of hanging out between Grand Island and Lincoln... anywhere that'll allow me hookup for internet access to view the latest forecasts.

 

[Jason Montano]

I just got done looking at the radar and it looks as though the OFB from the MCS is already moving through OAX and I can confirm that w/ a wind direction shift, now from the east (or so it seems) idk, im tired!! With the OFB already through here might the target area, for tomorrow, move to the South?

 

[Mikey Gribble]

SPC outlook has given me the motivation to leave tonight. I have a habit of not waking up to the alarm and don't want to risk over sleeping. I am hoping to redeem myself after 3 consecutive skunkings up north. Good luck to all you out there.

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The morning charts show a fortuitious amalgamation of ingredients developing over much of Kansas and Nebraska.

A boundary is obvious this morning along the NE/KS border. To the north of the boundary, surface winds are easterly. The convection that helped reinforce this boundary overnight is out of the way, so the boundary should have a chance to "cook" during the day. Meanwhile, a surface low is progged to deepen significantly during the day back around Goodland. Given these two factors, I would expect the boundary to become more diffuse, but still be strong enough for moisture to "pool" along the KS/NE border.

With the boundary in place, strong low-level isallobaric forcing directed toward the west, and a strong jet aloft from the WSW, deep-layer and low-level shear profiles should be excellent -- perhaps locally "ideal", along and north of the boundary. Thermodynamically, the "pooling" of the moisture should help lower cloud bases in the vicinity of, and north of, the old boundary. 00Z progged soundings from GRI/HSI area show an excellent thermodynamic profile for tornadoes...we will see if it comes to pass. In summary, there is a good chance that a rather large area of Nebraska along and north of the boundary will have excellent shear and thermodynamic profiles for tornadoes. Unless an unforeseen problem develops, I forecast supercells developing near the triple point and eastward along the boundary to move ENE at ~25 mph across southern Nebraska, and be cyclic tornado-producers.

Farther south along the dryline in Kansas, the cap should break again today with scattered supercells. The shear will be plentiful, but low-level shear will obviously be not quite as good as along the boundary up north. And, as yesterday, the cloud bases will be a bit high with 20-25 degree dewpoint depressions. Still, a few tornadoes will be possible down the line. It's worth noting that two of the dryline supercells yesterday put out softball-size hail, and conditions will continue to be favorable both along the dryline and northern boundary for giant hail today.

Good luck to everyone giving today a chase effort. Please be careful, it will be a zoo out there! See you out there...

 

[Chris Hayes]

Since I'm not able to chase the outbreak to day across the plains, I'm hopiing for another derecho event to occur today. I'm hoping apex of the bow echo complex, if one develops, heads right over me. I didnt get the 80mph + winds I was hoping for yesterday, so maybe today will be my day. What does everyone think about the possibility for a derecho event today across IN/OH/PA? SPC mentioned the area may need to be upgraded to moderate risk if an MCS/Derecho does indeed develop.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Nice work, Kevin - thanks for the positive reinforcement!

Looks like today may turn out to be everything that Wednesday was not. Quite a frightning combination of factors are coming together for a severe weather fest right here at home. I will be just north of the warm front today in Nebraska, where the wind gets wiggy and the storms get jiggy.

Folks - the reminder about being careful is well-warranted on a day like this. There will no doubt be hordes of people out since this is a weekend event. We'll see chasers, tour groups, bus groups, the media and no doubt the tornado car will make another appearance. So remember to give us a good name today ... be careful, make smart decisions ... and if you end up being interviewed by a reporter at some point, remember to highlight how safe you chased (and that you didn't speed), and how you issued timely reports to protect others.

... And, of course, don't forget to totally enjoy a rockin good show.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Any thoughts on this intense dry punch and the effects it may have?

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc1...hr_sfc_dewp.gif

I know the dry punch May 4th 03 in this same region was similar and it was TOO strong. Started cycling dry air back into the triple point storms. They died with a massive burst of outflow...action quickly jumped FAR to the east. It has me worried and maybe I shouldn't be. Just not so sure I want to be "back in there" or just try and stay to it's ne.

MIke

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Mr. Peregrine, very aptly put. (edit here..have to be specific about which "Mike"...lol)

My chase group is targeting N. KS today, the closest big threat. I like virtually all of Nebraska, and I think (like Kevin S.) that the threat for tornadoes is very high. This is a practically perfect chase day for those in NE, provided that the boundary moves N. as forecast. The only caveat is the weak low level winds in Nebraska, this might limit the tornado threat somewhat, but the instability should compensate for most of that weakness.

Well, I sure hope the outflow boundary decides to stay put in N. KS. That would help my traveling a bit (from Norman). Alas, will have to make the drive home tonight (ugh).

I really hope there is some good action to keep me awake tonight. Might have to pull of the road to get some shuteye on the way home, depending on where we (going with Jeff S. et al.) end up today. Ya'll be safe on the road.

Gabe

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Also I think David Hoadley mentioned some bad road construction going north out of Kearney in one of his reports. So if you are fleeing may not want to flee in that direction, same goes with pursuing!

Also....

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta1...hr_sfc_cape.gif

Much more reasonable punch. Can deal with that.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...&hours=hr12hr18

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...&hours=hr12hr18

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...&hours=hr12hr18

Could be some "fun" night "chasing". Hoping no one gets run over after dark, as it could be a bit tricky unless you have a good nowcaster or constant data.

Mike

 

[Mike Peregrine]

After looking at the CAPE bullseye, looks like Beatrice (a favorite choice of many chasers) will be the place to start for me today - - you can't get much more unstable than that -

Also - highway 36 has some construction that was really a pain in the butt last week for me, so be prepared for slow-downs ... construction is everywhere right now.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Hmmm - wonder where the pooling will be ...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc1...hr_sfc_mcli.gif

Notice the pockets along the dryline in south-central KS as well ...

I love what outflow boundaries do to sfc winds:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/ruc1...hr_sfc_mslp.gif

 

[Austin Ivey]

Well I'm heading out to SC Kansas now. Looks like there will be an erosion of CIN just east of the DL at initiation. ICT afd tells of 100 knot jet streak passing over cen. kansas this evening; hopefully just in time for a good show. Can't make it all the way to NE; but after seeing the storms that fired yesterday along the DL and knowing that we have better shear today and a very sharp DL by late afternoon, its hard to believe something wont go up and start turning. High temp-dp spreads and corresponding high lcls indicate low prob. of tornados but what the heck its Saturday folks!!

Matt Biddle and Mark Svendold are in Norfolk NE after viewing a nice tornado near Hadar yesterday. They report the back roads are SOAKED and trecharous, so everyone chasing in the rain soaked areas today use extreme caution when debating to navigate a "side road"!!

 

[Joe Smith]

Chris, Quad Cities has issued the first t warning for the line of storms in eastern Iowa and Mo. crossing into Illinois during the next hour. Potential is there as SPC mentioned for another derecho to develop this afternoon....will be prime heating as it heads into Ohio. If severe report frequency increases I would expect next day one outlook to uprgrade to moderate for Indiana eastward to Ohio.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.wxcaster.com/modelskewt.php3?mo...&STATIONID=koma

Rather impressive for 1 am Sunday morning....lol. That is for Omaha. I could see a high risk for the threat tonight seems to carry alone.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

The world's quickest and dirtiest forecast suggests and area from Red Cloud, Nebraska to Hebron. I hope this ellipses shifts southward about 50 miles, however. I'm concerned about the 850 winds slacking off near the border--not sure if that's model silliness or something to ponder. However, with due east surface flow, 850 from the southeast shouldn't be a problem. 850 at five knots would be a problem. Maybe the boundary will sink deeper into Kansas and under the better LLJ.