2 - 3 Week Out Tornado Forecast?

[David Williams]

I'm struck by how much they're glazing over the research and details in this article.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...does-2-3-weeks-in-advance-20160304-story.html

 

[rdale]

You should not be struck that the Chicago Tribune didn't get into 850mb shear and 500mb deltas It's a good concept - his webpage last year posted the forecasts and they verified fairly well. It'll be exciting to see if it was just a fluke or actually something usable.

 

[Chris Dickerson]

I actually came here to post this same article from a Cincinnati news source. I don't have the formal meteorological education to debate the merits of this model, but I'm curious to see what some of the degreed mets on here think of this.

 

[rdale]

Seems to have merit in theory, and as I mentioned it did fairly well last year.

 

[John Farley]

The publicity on this seems to be pretty widespread, as there was a pretty extensive article in the Santa Fe paper today. It mentioned his model predicted an uptick in tornado activity in the next week or two back in mid-February, which certainly looks like a possibility right now.

 

[rdale]

He was the special guest on Weatherbrains this week. http://weatherbrains.com/weatherbrains/?p=5260

 

[James Hilger]

Not necessarily tornadoes, but Dougs forecasts even months out are usually within 2-3 days accurate. I've seen it wrong only a couple of times in two years. Joplin area though. http://headypattern.com/tuesday-nig...-rain-continues-but-what-about-severe-storms/

 

[rdale]

I always wonder about those sites.. I grabbed that forecast so we can see in two months

 

[V. Gensini]

I'm lead author on the study (and also a fellow chaser) and would be happy to answer any questions from STers.

 

[V. Gensini]

For those interested, The Weather Channel will be airing a show (WxGeeks) on this very topic today (April 24th 2016) at 11 AM CDT / Noon EDT.

 

[Stan Rose]

can't comment on the research, but the headline of that story was extremely misleading!

 

[JamesCaruso]

Has anyone been following up on verification?

Where can these forecasts be accessed?

 

[JeremyS]

Has anyone been following up on verification?

Where can these forecasts be accessed?

According to the screen grab that rdale posted above for May 8-14th and then 15-21st, the 8-14th worked out pretty well, with the severe weather on Sunday-Wednesday. Next week, we'll see

 

[James Hilger]

According to the screen grab that rdale posted above for May 8-14th and then 15-21st, the 8-14th worked out pretty well, with the severe weather on Sunday-Wednesday. Next week, we'll see

Although we normally do get severe weather in that timeframe, the rest the year, will amaze you. It's pretty incredible.

 

[JamesCaruso]

Here's a link to the actual forecast page if anyone needs it:


http://weather.cod.edu/~vgensini/ertaf/