Thanks for the heads up Chris. I am sitting here just south of Pittsburg, KS waiting for something to happen. Will be a night event, but our group will be out and about. Severe warned cell in northern elk county in Kansas starts off the show. Storms should picked up in coverage and intensity esp. as the upper level winds pick up later.
Recent satellite images show that initiation looks less and less likely in north-central Oklahoma as the Cu are rapidly eroding. I would be concerned as well with the storms that just developed east of Wichita as they look to be headed into a region of very dry air (per the latest surface obs courtesy of UCAR).
RUC is progging a very concentrated area of precip by 7pm near Tulsa. Of course, these are precip forecasts so you shouldnt swear by them. However, for those of you chasing in NE OK I would definitely watch it and maybe grab some dinner near Tulsa if you're hungry. Convection should take off between 6 and 8pm as the entrance region of the 500mb vorticity maximum reaches the area (cooling mid levels, eroding CAP). Tds are currently in the mid 50s in and around Tulsa and should rise steadily as the sun sets and the LLJ kicks in. LCLs should lower, and taking everything else into consideration initiation in Oklahoma should happen within the next few hours. Also interesting to note that from IR sattelite imagery there appears to be a decent dust storm across SW OK and NE TX. Even looks like there might be a few grassfires given some enhanced areas showing up on sattelite.
EDIT: I just realized after posting this that I was in the NOW thread, and this is more of a FCST.. oops.
If this storm holds together which it has the potential to do it will affect the KC Metro in the next couple of hours. This has all the right setups for a long tracking supercell. Its all on its own and has freed itself from the line that is firing across SE KS. Also the cell to the north of Tor Warned storm looks like its trying to wrap around a meso as well and in the last 2 frams a small area of rotation has appeared with that cell to the north. KC Metro needs to watch this one.
Edit: Took a look at the Topeka NWS radar and the precip on the north cell is wrapping around a meso.
It's riding along the "warm front" which is basically the leading edge of the "moisture." I am allowed to use quotation marks in February lol. This thing might have a base somewhere in the lower stratosphere...but it probably looks quite nice. I'd watch this area and east later when the LLJ cranks up and LCL's come down due to diurnal cooling.
The right turn is the factor if the moisture isnt there yet it will be. Looks like the tornadic storm is splitting again 2 areas of rotation on the back sides of the precip. This is going to be a big night!
The cell near Colony is looking very impressive. GR2AE Hail algorithim is showing 3.73" hail and it is showing 70dbz throughout the hail growth layer. Last two tilts have showed a classic TBSS.
EDIT: GR2AE now at 4.5". 1.4 tilt now showing precipitation being wrapped around the updraft. Recent report indicates only .88" in Colony where core moved over. Mid-level rotation quite pronouced just east of Colony.
Rotation appears to have passed a mile or two north of Lone Elm.