2/21/2008 FCST: TX/LA/MS

[Bill Tabor]

I was forecasting some severe in the south east 1/5 of TX tomorrow, but after consulting the 4 km NMM WRF precip graphics and the RUC it now appears to me that much of this activity will be further east tomorrow and mostly out of my area of interest. I'll have to look at this in more detail. So Mods can delete this post / thread if you wish.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

It's been forever and a day since I actually looked at a forecast. No idea why I picked today to actually look at stuff (maybe it's all the other distractions thus far today).

Anyways, looks to be pretty interesting set up in E TX. LCH 12Z sounding shows evidence of a MAUL or at least of one possibly forming. The front is still to the north, so there doesn't look to be any big lift mechanism for the MAUL and get it cranking. However, as the front slides further south and the right entrance region helps cool off the weak inversion just above the feature, storms might get going and going quick. The storm N of DFW right now may be a small hint at what to expect for today. However, given the height of the MAUL-like feature on the LCH sounding makes me wonder how well the clouds will do (as far as staying more liquid than ice) with bases just above freezing. Could be a coupious amount of hail day or a large hail day. Given the strong shear, I'm more to lean the way the SPC is going and say large hail. While I doubt the storms today will be the most picturesque things, they might make for an interesting radar picture later.