2/1 - 2/3 FCST S. PLAINS/MIDWEST/GL/NE STORM

[DWest]

The models are starting to agree on the potential for a major winter storm over parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and the southern two thirds of Missouri - with many of the models recently shifting towards the GFS solution, which paints more than a foot of snow for many of these regions. From what I gather, those areas to the south that don't pick up large snow totals may be facing the threat of accumulating ice - which never brings any good.

That said, I don't think anybody really knows where the line of heavy snow is going to station itself - a day ago, the GFS painted the majority of snowfall over the Texas panhandle and all of Oklahoma - at this point it seems to want to place the majority over parts of Missouri, and has an inclination to move the snow slightly further north with every run. I suppose that has to do with how far north the warm air wedge makes it.



[Animated GIF of most recent GFS total snow depth valid through 2/3 1800]



[HPC total QPF valud through 2/2 1200]

 

[jshields]

yes this has the potential to be a huge storm somewhere across the central/southern plains. the euro has been furthest north and showing up to 1.75" of qpf and very strong winds across kansas, nebraska, and into iowa and points east. while the gfs has been furthest south with the heaviest snow from oklahoma through missouri and central illinois, and winds not as severe. the gfs did shift north a bit on today's runs and so did the canadian on the 12Z run. i'm excited as this would be the first real snowstorm to come out of the southwest and have an open gulf to access!

here's from the 06Z run of the GFS on 1/28: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

 

[bradjones]

Wow oh how the models can tease with ease. The GFS has backed off on snow totals like night and day. But the GFS does show about 1inch of precip over central Oklahoma. I wonder if the cold air will make it in time here in Oklahoma it seems to be a race. Any thoughts?

 

[Mike Smith]

The models have generally done a surprisingly good job within 48 hours of the storms this year. Beyond that, they have been highly inconsistent.

Just told a newspaper reporter (who had to write a story today for a Sunday paper) that I suggested he say something like "meteorologists are watching a storm in the Southwest that has the potential to bring accumulating snow to much of the region" and leave it at that. I think that is all there is so say right now.

 

[Mike Smith]

Quick comment on the 18Z GFS. While it shows the ≥12" of snow toward SW MO, the 500mb pattern is one that is highly favorable to heavy snow in north central OK and south central KS.

So, don't give up on S+ for KS and OK.

 

[DWest]

Quick comment on the 18Z GFS. While it shows the ≥12" of snow toward SW MO, the 500mb pattern is one that is highly favorable to heavy snow in north central OK and south central KS.

So, don't give up on S+ for KS and OK.

I'm taking a look at what's currently available of the 1800 right now, it seems to be lightening the snow totals and placing them further north and east (again)....don't see any 12"+ totals anywhere with this run, especially in SW MO. Am I looking at the correct data or am I looking in the wrong place?



All in all I agree with your statement with the models though, they like to shift rather dramatically more than a day or two out. My own experience in putting too much confidence in earlier models has lead to quite a few disappointments.

 

[Jesse Risley]

The models will have to resolve issues with the baroclinic zone and how that all relates to standing arctic air and the associated high pressure system over the Rockies, as that baroclinic zone will impact the final track of the surface low. I noticed that both the 12z GFS and the 12z ECMWF from this morning had rather notable northward shifts in the track of the surface low from what Thursday's 12z runs were showing. As always, once the upper air RAOB network adequately samples the system, the model reliability will improve, as noted with Mike's reference to dramatic reliability improvements with less than 48 hours before the arrival of the main energy to the areas impacted.

 

[Mike Smith]

The above image is from the 18Z GFS from Earl Barker's site. The red = 15". The reddish gray ≥ 19". Note the area of red from ICT to WSW of END.

Note: I just saw this forecast derived from the 18Z. The area of red is in the place that I would have put it based on my reading of the 500mb vorticity pattern. So, I believe we are starting to see some consistency regarding a heavy snow threat in N OK and S. KS along with a band to the ENE.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

Mike,

Thanks for your insights, I posted a detailed discussion on the Firsthand Weather webpage earlier this afternoon regarding the evolution of the winter storm through Monday night. I hope to have another update posted Sunday afternoon. It def looks like Green Country and the Ozarks are in for a dumptruck of sig snow. Cant wait to see what the models show tomorrow morning with regards to run-to-run consistancy. One thing I was noticing yesterday from the ECMWF was a coupled jet structure over Arkansas with a sfc low in the left exit region from the open low coming out of NRN Mexico together with the right entrance region of the jet streak departing across the Mid-Atlantic States.

http://firsthandweather.com/jwhitehead

 

[Andrew Francis]

I was wondering when this was gunna get posted.

being in C. OK I am hoping the models shift south @ the last minute and bring that heavy band into my territory!

Those of us here in central OK have seen only about a dusting thus far this season.

 

[jshields]

Mike- the image you posted is from the 06Z run this morning. i know that bc i recognized it from when i looked this morning about 10 am here is the map from the 18Z run today: http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_120HR.gif

since its time sensitive, here is a saved image:

it seems like the last 2 runs of the gfs(12Z and 18Z) have shifted the heaviest snow further east into missouri

The above image is from the 18Z GFS from Earl Barker's site. The red = 15". The reddish gray ≥ 19". Note the area of red from ICT to WSW of END.

Note: I just saw this forecast derived from the 18Z. The area of red is in the place that I would have put it based on my reading of the 500mb vorticity pattern. So, I believe we are starting to see some consistency regarding a heavy snow threat in N OK and S. KS along with a band to the ENE.

 

[jshields]

here was the 12Z run of the GFS just for comparison as well:

not sure why its waiting to dump more snow until further east, beyond the obvious answer that the moisture is going to be more available further east. i guess we'll see!! btw i'm personally hoping for the euro to verify. last nights run gave eastern nebraska about 1.75" in qpf, which did back down to 1" of qpf on todays 12Z run. but at least its further north. i might as well throw in the 12Z run of the canadian model too, which also shows further north and more precip once you get into missouri

 

[Chris Carter]

This was actually picked up by the Euro model a few days ago, but much farther to the north. The model broke off and went with the GFS but once it picked up Tue storm as a south track the Euro switched back to the north track. Now the Canadian model is hopping onto the idea of the Euro. We will see what happens, my bet is the euro plans to be right since it picked it up first.

 

[Mike Smith]

Thanks for correcting the record. That said, the 500mb pattern Tuesday (including the just-issued 00Z NAM) still looks quite favorable for heavy snow (≥4") over north central OK and south central Kansas.

 

[jshields]

i think it's just as fun and interesting to see what each wfo discussion says about the upcoming storm!! it seems like each office has their own take on the models and when they favor one over the other, they have their own reason. i've read anything from phasing of the storms isn't climatologically favored this time of year to the gfs will be right bc its been the most consistent, to the euro is right bc its better at this type of weather pattern and energy coming onshore. except for a couple of runs, the euro and the gfs has really held their own forecast and they both offer pretty different solutions. i am 99% certain that someone will get hit really hard though