Michael Snyder
EF3
I ran the 1985-2016 June Tornado numbers into my ENSO spread sheet for the States of Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.
If nothing else its good for entertainment until we get closer to the 2017 season.
Some interesting numbers associated with June months:
(1985-2016) the average has been 79.1 tornadoes during the month of June for the 5 states.
-Starting with 2012 there has been a dearth of Tornado activity across the 5 states covered. During the Period only 2014 (101 tornadoes) was an above average year (blue color is La Nina, Red El Nino, black is Neutral). 2012 (25), 2013 (23) , 2015 (42), 2016 (15) were well below average.
-June 2016 The 15 Tornadoes reported in was the lowest in the 32 year period!
-June 2016 Kansas/Oklahoma had a total of 0 Tornadoes. The first time that has happened in the period.
-Texas- 2012,2013,2015,2016 had 3 Tornadoes in each year. 3 is the lowest tornado count for Texas during the period and it's has happened 4 of the last 5 years now. In 1992 Texas had 82 Tornadoes in the month of June!
-Hard to say what the reason for the lull in tornadoes is for the 5 states in June. AGW, multidecadal Oscillation? I'll guess it's likely combination of these factors and I'm sure someone here can elaborate more on these ideas.
-Tornadoes/season/June (based on previous winter ENSO)
TX KS OK CO NE Average
27.6 19.4 7.5 18.9 14.7 88.2 - El Nino
22.0 14.2 4.7 22.1 20.1 83.1 - Neutral
15.3 16.3 4.7 12.3 19.4 67.8 - La Nina
-Tornadoes/Season/June (based on actual June monthly ENSO temps)
TX KS OK CO NE Average
26.6 17.1 4.9 25.9 15.6 90.0
22.2 17.3 5.9 15.3 17.7 78.3
11.2 14.0 6.0 14.2 22.8 68.2
-Overall, El Nino brings more tornadoes during June, although the 15 tornadoes during 2016 after the recent very strong El Nino did drag the average down.
-June 1992 with 223! tornadoes was the highest total for the 1985-2016 period, this came after a fairly strong EL Nino.
If nothing else its good for entertainment until we get closer to the 2017 season.
Some interesting numbers associated with June months:
(1985-2016) the average has been 79.1 tornadoes during the month of June for the 5 states.
-Starting with 2012 there has been a dearth of Tornado activity across the 5 states covered. During the Period only 2014 (101 tornadoes) was an above average year (blue color is La Nina, Red El Nino, black is Neutral). 2012 (25), 2013 (23) , 2015 (42), 2016 (15) were well below average.
-June 2016 The 15 Tornadoes reported in was the lowest in the 32 year period!
-June 2016 Kansas/Oklahoma had a total of 0 Tornadoes. The first time that has happened in the period.
-Texas- 2012,2013,2015,2016 had 3 Tornadoes in each year. 3 is the lowest tornado count for Texas during the period and it's has happened 4 of the last 5 years now. In 1992 Texas had 82 Tornadoes in the month of June!
-Hard to say what the reason for the lull in tornadoes is for the 5 states in June. AGW, multidecadal Oscillation? I'll guess it's likely combination of these factors and I'm sure someone here can elaborate more on these ideas.
-Tornadoes/season/June (based on previous winter ENSO)
TX KS OK CO NE Average
27.6 19.4 7.5 18.9 14.7 88.2 - El Nino
22.0 14.2 4.7 22.1 20.1 83.1 - Neutral
15.3 16.3 4.7 12.3 19.4 67.8 - La Nina
-Tornadoes/Season/June (based on actual June monthly ENSO temps)
TX KS OK CO NE Average
26.6 17.1 4.9 25.9 15.6 90.0
22.2 17.3 5.9 15.3 17.7 78.3
11.2 14.0 6.0 14.2 22.8 68.2
-Overall, El Nino brings more tornadoes during June, although the 15 tornadoes during 2016 after the recent very strong El Nino did drag the average down.
-June 1992 with 223! tornadoes was the highest total for the 1985-2016 period, this came after a fairly strong EL Nino.
