Bill Schintler
EF4
Chase target for November 12
Chase target:
St. Joseph, MO.
Timing:
Storm initiation 4 PM CST.
Storm type:
Supercell storms early in evolution, transitioning into a squall line by early evening. A full spectrum of severe weather is expected, including isolated tornadoes. Storms will move rapidly to the northeast at 60 mph.
Discussion:
12Z UA analysis indicated 95kt H3 streak rounding base of opening trough in the ERN Rockies, along with attendant strong divergence in the right-rear quadrant of this feature lifting towards SRN KS.
At the surface a fairly deep moisture return was underway, as evidenced by a plume of surface dewpoints between 55F and 60F in CNTRL/ERN KS. KTOP 12z sounding indicated a 150mb deep moist layer, while KSGF was 300mb deep! Temperatures in the low-70’s by late afternoon will contribute to SBCAPE’s of only 1000J/kG. However, strong synoptic-scale forcing in association with the aforementioned streak and associated H5 vort max, in addition to 0-6km deep-layer shear to 70kts with long, slightly curving hodographs and resulting (0-3km) SRH’s to 400m^2/s^2 should result in a late-season severe WX event.
- bill
Chase target:
St. Joseph, MO.
Timing:
Storm initiation 4 PM CST.
Storm type:
Supercell storms early in evolution, transitioning into a squall line by early evening. A full spectrum of severe weather is expected, including isolated tornadoes. Storms will move rapidly to the northeast at 60 mph.
Discussion:
12Z UA analysis indicated 95kt H3 streak rounding base of opening trough in the ERN Rockies, along with attendant strong divergence in the right-rear quadrant of this feature lifting towards SRN KS.
At the surface a fairly deep moisture return was underway, as evidenced by a plume of surface dewpoints between 55F and 60F in CNTRL/ERN KS. KTOP 12z sounding indicated a 150mb deep moist layer, while KSGF was 300mb deep! Temperatures in the low-70’s by late afternoon will contribute to SBCAPE’s of only 1000J/kG. However, strong synoptic-scale forcing in association with the aforementioned streak and associated H5 vort max, in addition to 0-6km deep-layer shear to 70kts with long, slightly curving hodographs and resulting (0-3km) SRH’s to 400m^2/s^2 should result in a late-season severe WX event.
- bill