Bill Tabor
EF5
This doesn't look neg tilt to me. It looks neutral to slightly pos tilt. Am I missing something?
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- Weather and Chasing
- Target Area
11/12/05 FCST: Upper Midwest through Southern Plains
- Thread starter Mickey Ptak
- Start date
This doesn't look neg tilt to me. It looks neutral to slightly pos tilt. Am I missing something?
Fred Gossage
EF1
It depends on which model you look at...... 12 run of NAM is neutral/slightly positive... 12Z run of GFS is negative tilt.
nickgrillo
EF5
http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_500_G...NDVORT_30HR.gif <-- More neutrally-tilted (n-s)
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHT...MPVORT_30HR.gif <-- Negatively-tilted (nw-se)
Bill Tabor
EF5
Ok, I was only looking at NAM. Also I just looked at NAM 300mb rather than just 500mb. If you consider the whole thing all the way across the US to Canada it does seem to have a very slight neg tilt except in southern areas, but the 500mb map doesn't show it.
Tom Dulong
EF2
NMC is favoring the GFS solution. Based on BUFKIT forecast soundings from the latest run, eastern OK/northeast TX/Arkansas/northwest LA have the best chances for supercells...mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Unfortunately, it looks like the "best chase" opportunity will be in the trees at night .
Bill Tabor
EF5
Earl sure has some good graphics Nick but so many links to them. Which one to the main page of these model links? I notice they are wxcaster2 links, but I've only seen wxcaster stuff before. Wonder how he has the time to do all these great detailed products?
nickgrillo
EF5
http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm and http://www.wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm would be the pages I most frequently use on his site (and those pages have the two graphics I listed above).
Bill Tabor
EF5
I found a similar link to your top one but for some reason it doesn't show as wxcaster2 in the URL - odd.
Here it is: http://128.121.193.153/CENTRAL_ETA_500_GPH...NDVORT_30HR.gif
Hmm - just realized maybe I'm not supposed to post all this additional stuff related to discussion of URL's under the forecasts link even though it was an extension of the original topic. Not sure. Is it just supposed to be forecast comments alone? If so I guess we can delete / move these other comments related to Earls page. Sorry.Mickey Ptak
EF5
Not really the kind of data I want to see at this point, but a chase is still not out of the game plan as of yet. It will be interesting to see what tomorrows morning analysis brings to the table.
Current surface analysis showing moisture returning north form C TX with 55-60Td. So moisture has plenty of time to ride that strong LLJ and arrive in OK,TX,KS, and MO. According to BUFKIT fcst soundings NE OK has the best looking forecasted hodographs with very nice curvature. Granted surface winds are still out of the S/SW so that could pos a problem with 1km shear.
Although this is a preliminary game plan I am going to halfheartedly say somewhere in NE OK is going to be target possibly SE KS. With my best guess is that things will fire up around the TP and development continues southward through KS and into NE OK. At least that's the way the NAM has it so more than likely if that holds true any development that starts in NE OK may be supercellular in the beginning. The question is however is there going to be any daylight left by that time? I’ll let you know tomorrow around 6pm. We will see.
EDIT: Scratch that hodograph comment. Took a better look and it looks linear. bla...
Mick
Everything Ive seen thus far has all been pointing to one thing, that being linear/squall line convection. The reason why I say this is due to the very warm/dry air that resides over top the low levels in this area. With increasing low level mositure, whats going to happen is parcels will rise but will hit their LCL's fairly rapidly in the early hours of the day due to the significant cap above and condense into stratus, thus, killing the any chance of surface heating as is quite typical for this time of year. Look at the wv imagery and youll see why this will happen.
From OUN AFD:
and SPC Day 2:
As for me, you gonna think I made this up but I swear I didnt. I have an appointment to meet a fashion photographer tomorrow in Ft. Smith thats flying in from his studio in St. Louis to take some model photos for my modeling career. I swear to you I didnt make this up. If not for that, I would not be driving out that direction for weather b/c in my opinion, the dynamics are ingrediants arent that great for that long of a drive. But like someone else said on here, it will be interesting to look at the 12Z data tomorrow morning.
EDIT: I think the title of this thread may need to be changed to Ozarks/Upper Midwest or OK/KS/MO/AR
Chris Lott
EF4
I'm basically like everyone else here. Anything in the supercell nature will be in the SE Kansas-SE Oklahoma area with anything to the south in Texas forming into a squall line. TD's are already in the low-mid 60's through Central TX. right now (Waco is at 65 at 5:30 pm CDT). Moisture will be in place tomorrow but I believe there will be too strong a cap. But as the saying goes, we'll wait and see.
Kiel Ortega
EF4
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2004
- Messages
- 325
Just took a quick look at the model runs and current conditions...those winds sure do flip around and a nice linear profile sets up early on (even now!). Meanwhile, cyclogensis is already occuring near DEN (models seemed to have nailed this)...but as the situation goes overnight, hodographs are going to be quite linear (note the 00Z Tumcumcari profiler) in the TA all day tomorrow. IMO, looks like the shear vector is going to be rather parallel to the dry line/front (whatever it is...like I said, I took a quick look)...squall line looks very likely. Combine this with initial (and probably mature) motions along the front (not off it) and a quick system, initiation may even prove difficult.
Matthew Havin
EF2
The 0Z NAM is starting to finally pick up on strengthening the low....... has it at 0Z Sunday at 992 mb over southern MN. Linear-fest probably likely a tick east of people's previous thoughts...... with anything interesting in SE KS east of Chanute and then plowing into SW MO.Mike Hollingshead
Interesting the GFS has shown pretty much what the eta has now come to, for several runs. Chalk one up for the GFS....or at least to this point. The MM5 was also similar to the latest ETA for a few runs.
I'm thinking of a Lincoln to Nebraska City line and then into southern IA...early At least it seems to be the place the models think the dews will reach.
Robert Dewey
EF5
For what it's worth, depending on what MM5 you are using it could be getting it's IBC (Initial Boundary Conditions) from the NAM... I think the GFS is initializing things better, and is leading to better performance (up until now, at least).Similar threads
