Bill Tabor
EF5
Strong SW LLJ with WAA will shift east across the central plains associated with massively negatively-tilted shortwave...
This doesn't look neg tilt to me. It looks neutral to slightly pos tilt. Am I missing something?
Strong SW LLJ with WAA will shift east across the central plains associated with massively negatively-tilted shortwave...
It depends on which model you look at...... 12 run of NAM is neutral/slightly positive... 12Z run of GFS is negative tilt.
It depends on which model you look at...... 12 run of NAM is neutral/slightly positive... 12Z run of GFS is negative tilt.
http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_500_GPHTMPWNDVORT_30HR.gif <-- More neutrally-tilted (n-s)
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHT...MPVORT_30HR.gif <-- Negatively-tilted (nw-se)
http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_500_GPHTMPWNDVORT_30HR.gif <-- More neutrally-tilted (n-s)
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHT...MPVORT_30HR.gif <-- Negatively-tilted (nw-se)
Earl sure has some good graphics Nick but so many links to them. Which one to the main page of these model links? I notice they are wxcaster2 links, but I've only seen wxcaster stuff before. Wonder how he has the time to do all these great detailed products?
and SPC Day 2:THE LOWER LEVELS WILL MOISTEN QUITE A
BIT TONIGHT WITH STRATUS AFFECTING MOST AREAS BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.
MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE VERY WARM/DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT RESIDES ON
TOP OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO
OVERCOME EVEN WITH ASCENT OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
POPS LOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS
FOR PRECIP REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FROM PARTS OF THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY NEWD TO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
Interesting the GFS has shown pretty much what the eta has now come to, for several runs. Chalk one up for the GFS....or at least to this point. The MM5 was also similar to the latest ETA for a few runs.
I'm thinking of a Lincoln to Nebraska City line and then into southern IA...early At least it seems to be the place the models think the dews will reach.