Mike Hollingshead
If it got it from the NAM it was then certainly going in a better direction. The mm5 on Earl's site had a better handle on this before the nam.
It depends on which model you look at...... 12 run of NAM is neutral/slightly positive... 12Z run of GFS is negative tilt.
NMC is favoring the GFS solution. Based on BUFKIT forecast soundings from the latest run, eastern OK/northeast TX/Arkansas/northwest LA have the best chances for supercells...mainly Saturday night into Sunday. Unfortunately, it looks like the "best chase" opportunity will be in the trees at night .
Interesting the GFS has shown pretty much what the eta has now come to, for several runs. Chalk one up for the GFS....or at least to this point. The MM5 was also similar to the latest ETA for a few runs.
I'm thinking of a Lincoln to Nebraska City line and then into southern IA...early At least it seems to be the place the models think the dews will reach.
For what it's worth, depending on what MM5 you are using it could be getting it's IBC (Initial Boundary Conditions) from the NAM... I think the GFS is initializing things better, and is leading to better performance (up until now, at least).
I'm way past keeping an updraft intact...but is it going to be possible to chase this stuff with those kinds of speeds (don't know the road networks in the NC MO area--the 5% tornado area this morning)...IMO, I doubt it.
Hopefully though Lincoln will be far enough west. It is currently 33 in North Platte, lol.