10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

[Ed Boik]

Anyone else notice the pinwheeling of Wilma's eye?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...t-vis-loop.html
I have never seen anything like that before.

 

[B Ozanne]

Originally posted by Ed Boik
Anyone else notice the pinwheeling of Wilma's eye?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/fl...t-vis-loop.html
I have never seen anything like that before.

Those are wobbles. Very common with intense hurricanes. These wobbles are highly visible since the eye is so small.

No doubt that super-cooled air is descending from the stratosphere so fast it can't warm up! I hope the next recon plane doesn't freeze up. Just kidding.

 

[Justin Walker]

Wilma appears to be ingesting some dry air, this is evident on the satellite image here: the time is 1515
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FL...LOAT/VIS/20.jpg
I think we will see W begin to weaken. This is good news for the areas of Yucatan P and western Cuba! W still will be very strong though when she passes through that area.

 

[Justin Walker]

It appears W may be starting an ERC. There is some evidence that a outer eyewall is developing. W's structure is definately changing. I don't think she will be as strong as she was last night and who knows how long this ERC could last. It took Rita a long time to complete it's first ERC. BUT...it is the 2005 season...so who really knows what WILL happen. :roll:

 

[Andrew Khan]

I wonder when this thing will get a bigger eye? Right now the eye is so small...yet, the pinwheeling effect, is really awsome, nad yet mysterious. What causes the 'wobbling' effect? Records/reports say, that Wilma is the Strongest, biggest hurricane EVER recorded in the Atlantic Basin, in history! IT's got the record lowest Milibar PRessure, the most erratic strength gaining in the shortest amount of time, and it has 175 winds...with very DEEP convection. Just wondering when all of the evacuations (if any) will begin....

 

[David Wolfson]

I don't remember seeing anything like the "wobble" W. is doing. It looks like more than trochoidal motion; rather an angular rotation of a central super-vortex around a larger vortex that just keeps going and going. Darndest ERC this interested amateur has ever seen.

 

[MClarkson]

Windfield has expanded a bit, based on the last recon pass, and is showing an outer wind max about 40 nm away from the eye...91 knots. 152kt in the main eyewall.

pressure at 892.

At some point she is gonna go through an ERC, and she will likely emerge from that with a larger eye, and even broader windfield, but less intense(she could restrengthen some, before the cooler waters and shear in the gulf intrude).

 

[Scott Olson]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsdsol...ol/RSOMAIN.HTML Eye starting to fill in a bit. HRD has last nights wind data already avaliable and shows a very compact wind-field.

 

[cdcollura]

Spirograph!

Good day everyone,

Wilma definitely is developing an outer eyewall. If you see on the visible loop, a "dark" area wobbles on the opposite side of the "pinhole" eye and is always across from the eye, like if it is connected by an imaginary line and rotating about a midpoint on that line.

I wonder if this is a mesovortex of some sort, developing in the "moat" between the outer and inner eyewalls and causing the wobble as both go around.

The wobbles are amazing, like your old "spirograph" toy with the colored pens ... Along a curving line with a hyper-cycloid / cardiod type pattern.

I wonder, just for argument's sake, if we assumed the eye passed over Cozumel, Mexico when this was happening ... Would the eye be able to "loop" around and hit the island again?

The "moat" region also shows on the visible floater (space between the inner and developing outer eyewall) with the inner wall forming a raised circular disk (with the "pinhole" in its center). I am curious whay will happen after the eyewall replacement is complete - Still have concentric eyewalls and their repleacement cycles, or maybe even an annular hurricane with a larger single eyewall?

This is just incredible.

Chris Collura - KG4PJN

 

[Dan Robinson]

It appears that the clear 'pinhole' eye is not at the center of the circulation. Is that even possible? It is rotating around an external axis with remarkable consistency.

 

[Andrew Khan]

This is very amazing, to see...it's my first time ever seeing such an interesting effect as this. It looks like Hurricane Wilma will be a BIG tornado producer once it makes landfall. It is really looking like it's going through the eyewall replacement phase, but something I think, is that Wilma will not be able to maintain this high category five state, because of it's extremely low pressure system, it's very waverly....we'll see...

 

[Justin Walker]

Winds up a little and pressure hanging out at 892mb.

Originally posted by NHC
THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...17.9 N... 83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 892 MB.

EDIT: Oops...I was looking at knts at 5pm and then mph at 8pm, just a brain fart!!

 

[rdale]

That's exactly the same as the 5pm report.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Khan, there is absolutely no way you can forecast the potential for a cyclone to produce tornadoes this far out....

Second of all, who is to say that this system doesn't take a jog left and die over the Yucatan? I've seen it many a time before...

Aaron

 

[rdale]

"Khan, there is absolutely no way you can forecast the potential for a cyclone to produce tornadoes this far out.... "

Especially in a NOW thread ;>