10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

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Since this isn't a forecast I figured it would be best to post it in a NOW thread.

The recon flight currently investigating Hurricane Wilma has found a minimum central pressure of 954mb and a maximum FL wind of 80kt. Wilma has a very low pressure for a category two hurricane and I think that we should expect extraordinary (need to redefine after 2005?) things from this system in the coming days.

URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

Also, yet again, we're seeing a huge storm in Wilma; the cloud canopy covers an area roughly equal to that of the entire GoM.

24L at 2315z:


I really cannot believe that we're about to see another major hurricane this season -- and its name is Wilma. This is an amazing season to witness...I just hope that I'm not saying the same thing about 2006.
 
Originally posted by Vortex message

H. 954 mb
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
[/b][/quote]

954mb?! :shock: It's not shocking to see 954mb obviously, but 16mb in 3 hours is mighty impressive. IR satellite imagery shows a pinhole eye developing, with VERY cold cloud tops surrounding the eye in a very symmetric fashion. I do expect rapid intensification to continue given the awesome symmetric cloud pattern about the very small eye. Pressure should continue to drop rapidly, though the winds may not respond as quickly given that the current wind field is very small.
 
18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5 WILMA

DVORAK supports a major hurricane now. This thing looks very similar to the way Rita/Katrina looked before developing annular characteristics. CDO is very well established along with a tightly vertically stacked MLC/LLC combination. Light shear + high SST/THCP = disaster in the making.
 
That is some pretty impressive consolodation of the IR pattern. The new plane has about 10 degrees to go... so figure 2 hours. I wont be surprised at all if they report <940.
 
Awsome to see the eye for structuring stage in a TS/Hurricane....you can CLEARLY see the rain beginning to taper off in the center....I'd say this will be out next Major Hurricane...
 
Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Awsome to see the eye for structuring stage in a TS/Hurricane....you can CLEARLY see the rain beginning to taper off in the center....I'd say this will be out next Major Hurricane...

I think it already is.

EDIT: 11PM discussion has increased the winds to 95kt and "THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE." Also, I think that it is very important to note that "THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS."
 
UMMMMMMMMMMM....THIS THING IS BOMBING

0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100

154kt FL wind as they passed through the eyewall. Wilma is most definitely at least category 4 intensity - likely borderline category 5. The pressure altitude went from 5000' to 10000' in a matter of ten minutes of airtime. I am in disbelief.
 
901MB and 26C eye temperature.

Forgive me, but holy sh!t.

URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
 
That is the most unbelievable deepening I have ever heard of. I am at a complete loss of words... 76mb drop in 13 hours and 69mb in 7.5 hours!. I can't say as though I have EVER heard of any hurricane/typhoon ever dropping that quickly. I'm sorry if I can't post more meteorologically-significant content, but I am at a complete loss of words. I imagine that they are doing some data quality checks before putting out anything official, since that is an unheard of deepening.
 
Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
901MB and 26C eye temperature.

Forgive me, but holy sh!t.

Yeah, agreed. I'm floored. I don't know quite what to say. 76mb drop in 12 hours. That's way beyond bomb cyclogenesis. I knew we were in for something dramatic when I saw the "pinhole" eye form. This is going to be one to watch for sure.

For the folks in Florida, let's hope that ridge breaks down and the shear increases to take this beast down before landfall.
 
Wow that is just crazy. Dare I say we will flirt with an Atlantic Basin record? And dare I say that a bunch of people are going to wake up very afraid?

I agree Jeff, I cannot think of anything to say. :!: Look at the cloud tops down to -87C. Thats just ridiculous. Insane. This hurricane season is just incredible.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
That is the most unbelievable deepening I have ever heard of. I am at a complete loss of words... 76mb drop in 13 hours. I can't say as though I have EVER heard of any hurricane/typhoon ever dropping that quickly. I'm sorry if I can't post more meteorologically-significant content, but I am at a complete loss of words.

I'm literally on the phone with my chase partner and am unable to speak. I have never been knocked speechless like this in my entire life, let alone by the rate of intensification of a hurricane. WTF is going on right now. Unbe-fucking-lievable.

EDIT: I WOULD KILL TO BE ON THAT RECON FLIGHT TONIGHT WITH THAT NEARLY-FULL MOON. STADIUM EFFECT MUST BE OUT OF THIS WORLD AND MUST LOOK TOTALLY INSANE WITH AN EYE DIAMETER OF LESS THAN 5 MILES.
 
I dont even know what to say. Im shocked. a 5 mile eye, 901mb, an unheard of rapid intensifying, that amazing ultra cold CDO.

just wow.
 
Special advisory was just posted. High end Cat 4 now...

HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA...

and

AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

They probably could have gone higher but most likely will in the next complete advisory. Either that or they can't believe it and are trying to find some way to quality control it. I'm turning on the TV to watch the anchors go bananas.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Originally posted by Alex Lamers

They probably could have gone higher but most likely will in the next complete advisory. Either that or they can't believe it and are trying to find some way to quality control it. I'm turning on the TV to watch the anchors go bananas.

...Alex Lamers...

Yeah... The max fl winds of 165kts fit with the 901mb extrapolation. Remember, they're flying at 850mb, so apply a 20% reduction, as opposed to the more typical 10% reduction if they were flying at 700mb. Regardless, I can't imagine a Cat 4 storm with 901mb central pressure! That's one of the lowest pressures recorded in the Atlantic... I hope the recon flight can hang out near the storm to make sure we get a good "lowest pressure"... I hate to think that we may miss the lowest pressure between recon flights, such as may have happened with Rita (not saying there's any evidence to support that, but probability wise, it's possible). I just happened to be watching TWC when the Vortex message came in.... The on-air met (the guy who flies with the AF recon crew) was absolutely floored.
 
I have been completely swamped all day and evening at work. Just taking a look at the IR loop since 16:45Z today. I don't recall ever seeing a storm organize so quickly.

Per the 10/19 11 a.m. NHC public advisory:
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

To this, 10/20 at 1 a.m.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

A drop of 76 mb in 14 hours? Maybe we're on Neptune, after all.

TonyC

<adding to my initial post after seeing Jeff's pressure-drop post below>
69mb in 7.5 hours?
??
<craps brick...>
 
The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.
 
Originally posted by MClarkson
The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.

MClarkson, where'd you get that info?

From the supplementary Vortex:
"AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY"

Flight level had been 850mb, which they usually fly when CP is >940mb I believe. In the eye of Wilma, they were only 50mb above the sea surface, and with 40+ foot waves, etc, I can only imagine how quickly they wanted to gain altitude.
 
That's an incredible pressure gradient!!!

I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure bottomed out in the mid 880's sometime tomorrow! The NHC is playing Wilma very conservatively, which is most likely why they have this thing as a CAT 4, but if those winds were at 150 mph 30 minutes ago, then they are near 160 now. There is no way that hurricane is a CAT 4, not with the pressure nose diving to 901 mb.
 
We have all been talking about Alpha and I guess Wilma got a little offended! She is going to break some pressure records. Thats just amazing drop, I can't believe it. :shock:
 
Originally posted by Simon Brewer
The NHC is playing Wilma very conservatively, which is most likely why they have this thing as a CAT 4, but if those winds were at 150 mph 30 minutes ago, then they are near 160 now. There is no way that hurricane is a CAT 4, not with the pressure nose diving to 901 mb.

I don't think the NHC could ever bring itself to raise the intensity by 50 or 60kt in two hours. Cat5 in a few minutes probably --- 155kt by 11am?
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-MClarkson
The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.

MClarkson, where'd you get that info?

From the supplementary Vortex:
"AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY"

Flight level had been 850mb, which they usually fly when CP is >940mb I believe. In the eye of Wilma, they were only 50mb above the sea surface, and with 40+ foot waves, etc, I can only imagine how quickly they wanted to gain altitude.[/b]

0430. 1658N 08154W 01531 5327 117 114 178 178 119 01250 0000000000
0431 1657N 08154W 01525 5421 116 131 174 174 136 01151 0000000100
0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100
0432 1655N 08156W 01516 5823 118 128 184 184 161 00738 0000000100
0432. 1653N 08156W 01410 5935 133 036 254 242 052 00520 0000000000

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/r.../2005101904.rcn

at 0430:30 they were at 1250meters and at 0432:30 they were at 520
 
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