10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

[Sam Sagnella]

Since this isn't a forecast I figured it would be best to post it in a NOW thread.

The recon flight currently investigating Hurricane Wilma has found a minimum central pressure of 954mb and a maximum FL wind of 80kt. Wilma has a very low pressure for a category two hurricane and I think that we should expect extraordinary (need to redefine after 2005?) things from this system in the coming days.

URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

Also, yet again, we're seeing a huge storm in Wilma; the cloud canopy covers an area roughly equal to that of the entire GoM.

24L at 2315z:


I really cannot believe that we're about to see another major hurricane this season -- and its name is Wilma. This is an amazing season to witness...I just hope that I'm not saying the same thing about 2006.

 

[Chris Hayes]

8PM advisory has minimum central pressure at 954mb and winds up to 100mph :shock:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Vortex message

H. 954 mb
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

[/b][/quote]

954mb?! :shock: It's not shocking to see 954mb obviously, but 16mb in 3 hours is mighty impressive. IR satellite imagery shows a pinhole eye developing, with VERY cold cloud tops surrounding the eye in a very symmetric fashion. I do expect rapid intensification to continue given the awesome symmetric cloud pattern about the very small eye. Pressure should continue to drop rapidly, though the winds may not respond as quickly given that the current wind field is very small.

 

[Brett Adair]

18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5 WILMA

DVORAK supports a major hurricane now. This thing looks very similar to the way Rita/Katrina looked before developing annular characteristics. CDO is very well established along with a tightly vertically stacked MLC/LLC combination. Light shear + high SST/THCP = disaster in the making.

 

[MClarkson]

That is some pretty impressive consolodation of the IR pattern. The new plane has about 10 degrees to go... so figure 2 hours. I wont be surprised at all if they report <940.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Awsome to see the eye for structuring stage in a TS/Hurricane....you can CLEARLY see the rain beginning to taper off in the center....I'd say this will be out next Major Hurricane...

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Awsome to see the eye for structuring stage in a TS/Hurricane....you can CLEARLY see the rain beginning to taper off in the center....I'd say this will be out next Major Hurricane...

I think it already is.

EDIT: 11PM discussion has increased the winds to 95kt and "THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE." Also, I think that it is very important to note that "THE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON WILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS."

 

[Sam Sagnella]

UMMMMMMMMMMM....THIS THING IS BOMBING

0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100

154kt FL wind as they passed through the eyewall. Wilma is most definitely at least category 4 intensity - likely borderline category 5. The pressure altitude went from 5000' to 10000' in a matter of ten minutes of airtime. I am in disbelief.

 

[MClarkson]

EXTRAP 901MB 943 MB in the eyewall and 157knots flight level!

edit: the 943 mb drop was in the eyewall.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

901MB and 26C eye temperature.

Forgive me, but holy sh!t.

URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

 

[Jeff Snyder]

That is the most unbelievable deepening I have ever heard of. I am at a complete loss of words... 76mb drop in 13 hours and 69mb in 7.5 hours!. I can't say as though I have EVER heard of any hurricane/typhoon ever dropping that quickly. I'm sorry if I can't post more meteorologically-significant content, but I am at a complete loss of words. I imagine that they are doing some data quality checks before putting out anything official, since that is an unheard of deepening.

 

[Chris Nuttall]

Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
901MB and 26C eye temperature.

Forgive me, but holy sh!t.

Yeah, agreed. I'm floored. I don't know quite what to say. 76mb drop in 12 hours. That's way beyond bomb cyclogenesis. I knew we were in for something dramatic when I saw the "pinhole" eye form. This is going to be one to watch for sure.

For the folks in Florida, let's hope that ridge breaks down and the shear increases to take this beast down before landfall.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Wow that is just crazy. Dare I say we will flirt with an Atlantic Basin record? And dare I say that a bunch of people are going to wake up very afraid?

I agree Jeff, I cannot think of anything to say. :!: Look at the cloud tops down to -87C. Thats just ridiculous. Insane. This hurricane season is just incredible.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
That is the most unbelievable deepening I have ever heard of. I am at a complete loss of words... 76mb drop in 13 hours. I can't say as though I have EVER heard of any hurricane/typhoon ever dropping that quickly. I'm sorry if I can't post more meteorologically-significant content, but I am at a complete loss of words.

I'm literally on the phone with my chase partner and am unable to speak. I have never been knocked speechless like this in my entire life, let alone by the rate of intensification of a hurricane. WTF is going on right now. Unbe-fucking-lievable.

EDIT: I WOULD KILL TO BE ON THAT RECON FLIGHT TONIGHT WITH THAT NEARLY-FULL MOON. STADIUM EFFECT MUST BE OUT OF THIS WORLD AND MUST LOOK TOTALLY INSANE WITH AN EYE DIAMETER OF LESS THAN 5 MILES.

 

[MClarkson]

I dont even know what to say. Im shocked. a 5 mile eye, 901mb, an unheard of rapid intensifying, that amazing ultra cold CDO.

just wow.