10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

[Alex Lamers]

Special advisory was just posted. High end Cat 4 now...

HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS 150 MPH WINDS IN WILMA...

and

AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE TODAY.

They probably could have gone higher but most likely will in the next complete advisory. Either that or they can't believe it and are trying to find some way to quality control it. I'm turning on the TV to watch the anchors go bananas.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers

They probably could have gone higher but most likely will in the next complete advisory. Either that or they can't believe it and are trying to find some way to quality control it. I'm turning on the TV to watch the anchors go bananas.

...Alex Lamers...

Yeah... The max fl winds of 165kts fit with the 901mb extrapolation. Remember, they're flying at 850mb, so apply a 20% reduction, as opposed to the more typical 10% reduction if they were flying at 700mb. Regardless, I can't imagine a Cat 4 storm with 901mb central pressure! That's one of the lowest pressures recorded in the Atlantic... I hope the recon flight can hang out near the storm to make sure we get a good "lowest pressure"... I hate to think that we may miss the lowest pressure between recon flights, such as may have happened with Rita (not saying there's any evidence to support that, but probability wise, it's possible). I just happened to be watching TWC when the Vortex message came in.... The on-air met (the guy who flies with the AF recon crew) was absolutely floored.

 

[Tony Cook]

I have been completely swamped all day and evening at work. Just taking a look at the IR loop since 16:45Z today. I don't recall ever seeing a storm organize so quickly.

Per the 10/19 11 a.m. NHC public advisory:

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 977 MB.

To this, 10/20 at 1 a.m.

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE. WILMA IS
NOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY FIVE TODAY. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.

A drop of 76 mb in 14 hours? Maybe we're on Neptune, after all.

TonyC

<adding to my initial post after seeing Jeff's pressure-drop post below>
69mb in 7.5 hours?
??
<craps brick...>

 

[MClarkson]

The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Goodbye, minimum central pressure record.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by MClarkson
The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.

MClarkson, where'd you get that info?

From the supplementary Vortex:
"AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY"

Flight level had been 850mb, which they usually fly when CP is >940mb I believe. In the eye of Wilma, they were only 50mb above the sea surface, and with 40+ foot waves, etc, I can only imagine how quickly they wanted to gain altitude.

 

[Simon Brewer]

That's an incredible pressure gradient!!!

I wouldn't be surprised if the pressure bottomed out in the mid 880's sometime tomorrow! The NHC is playing Wilma very conservatively, which is most likely why they have this thing as a CAT 4, but if those winds were at 150 mph 30 minutes ago, then they are near 160 now. There is no way that hurricane is a CAT 4, not with the pressure nose diving to 901 mb.

 

[Justin Walker]

We have all been talking about Alpha and I guess Wilma got a little offended! She is going to break some pressure records. Thats just amazing drop, I can't believe it. :shock:

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Simon Brewer
The NHC is playing Wilma very conservatively, which is most likely why they have this thing as a CAT 4, but if those winds were at 150 mph 30 minutes ago, then they are near 160 now. There is no way that hurricane is a CAT 4, not with the pressure nose diving to 901 mb.

I don't think the NHC could ever bring itself to raise the intensity by 50 or 60kt in two hours. Cat5 in a few minutes probably --- 155kt by 11am?

 

[MClarkson]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-MClarkson

The plane went from 4000 feet to 1700 feet in 2 minutes and had to pull up fast.

thats how low the 850 mb they were flying at got.

MClarkson, where'd you get that info?

From the supplementary Vortex:
"AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY"

Flight level had been 850mb, which they usually fly when CP is >940mb I believe. In the eye of Wilma, they were only 50mb above the sea surface, and with 40+ foot waves, etc, I can only imagine how quickly they wanted to gain altitude.[/b]

0430. 1658N 08154W 01531 5327 117 114 178 178 119 01250 0000000000
0431 1657N 08154W 01525 5421 116 131 174 174 136 01151 0000000100
0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100
0432 1655N 08156W 01516 5823 118 128 184 184 161 00738 0000000100
0432. 1653N 08156W 01410 5935 133 036 254 242 052 00520 0000000000

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/products/nhc/r.../2005101904.rcn

at 0430:30 they were at 1250meters and at 0432:30 they were at 520

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

You can't make this stuff up...

Ok... maybe you can =)

Aaron

 

[Gabe Garfield]

Adding my own shock and awe post:

I can imagine that the crews on the recon planes are probably getting just a little bit concerned, considering that this is unchartered territory. What amazes me most is that the hurricane force winds only extend 15 miles from the center. Simply amazing.

Gabe

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Just to correct my previous post... 69mb drop in 7.5 hours. That's nearly 10mb per hour SUSTAINED for 7 hours... :shock: Rita and Katrina had short burts that were of this rate, but those were only 1-3 hours in length.

She can still drop a bit... Maximum Potential Intensity supports a minimum pressure of about 880mb... http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

EDIT: For those who are curious, it appears that Wilma is the most rapildy intensifying hurricane in the Atlantic on record, assuming she deepens a bit more during the next 15 hours. Gilbert dropped 72mb in 24 hours, compared to 69mb in 7.5hrs of Wilma. From http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E2.html :

Subject: E2) Which tropical cyclone intensified the fastest?

Typhoon Forrest in September 1983 in the Northwest Pacific Ocean deepened by 100 mb (976 to 876 mb) in just under 24 hr (Roger Edson, personal communication). Estimated surface sustained winds increased a maximum of 15 m/s (30 kt, 35 mph) in 6 hr and 44 m/s (85 kt, 98 mph) in one day (from 33 to 77 m/s [65 to 150 kt, 75 to 173 mph]).

In the Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert went from 960 mb to 888 mb in a 24 hour period for a 3 mb/hr pressure drop. The winds went from 57 to 82 m/s (110 kt to 160 kt, 127 mph to 184 mph) in that 24 hour period. And Hurricane Beulah in 1967 underwent a 6.33 mb/hr drop over a six hour period.

 

[Simon Brewer]

Jeff,........that is absolutely incredible!

Question: What is the record for the number of CAT 5 Hurricanes (in the Atlantic Basin) in 1 year?

Wilma claims at least 2 MET Records that I know of and what other Records will Wilma break?

 

[MClarkson]

168 knot max 700mb wind. Using the typical 90% reduction, that is about 150 knots of surface wind, roughly.

0610. 1657N 08209W 03077 5592 201 158 108 108 168 02536 0000000100