MClarkson
EF5
884!
10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma
- Thread starter Sam Sagnella
- Start date
Scott Olson
EF5
This is absolutely incredible! I have never seen an eye that small before and look it's surronded by a huge area of incredibly cold cloud tops. This is a historic storm a record breaker and it's amazing!
Kevin Bowman
EF4
dont forget hurricane gilbert
Simon Brewer
EF3
884 with a 2-5 mile wide eye.....THAT is INSANE!!!!
And it's still DEEPENING!!!!
It's gonna encroach upon the 870's mb !!!!
And it's still DEEPENING!!!!
It's gonna encroach upon the 870's mb !!!!
Scott Olson
EF5
The world record is Typhoon tip at 870mb.. Also, the eye seems to be moving NNW. Atlantic record already set, some records in regards to eye and deepening vs. time also most likely set. Amazing!
MClarkson
EF5
It could have been a little lower than 884 because the dropsonde still had 23 knots of wind on it at the surface. Unfortunatly, the plane is now heading home, without a replacement till tommorow afternoon.
Scott Olson
EF5
Right and she may still deepen more only to never truly be sampled. Such a shame, I can't imagine Wilma will be able to maintain such an intensity but 884 or even 881 may not have been the lowest.
THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE
Simon Brewer
EF3
wow, I really wish there was a plane in there taking data, because Wilma will probably bottom out by 9 or 10 am and who knows? The pressure might be 875mb or lower....
B Ozanne
EF5
Pressure has now been calibrated and confirmed at 882mb.
Rocky Rascovich
EF4
W O W !!
I thought the wind max displayed on the map at the TPC website was a typo ontil I read the advisory. My initial forecast (that I never posted) was for Cat 3 strength, maybe Cat 4.....wrong. Nothing suprises me anymore about this season.
One thing I...almost...am certain of is this intensity is very temporary. I project areas from Tampa to Fort Myers will be under the gun by Sat PM and will come ashore as a Cat 2 storm..the chief cause will be increasing shear and cooler SST's as it comes into the gulf. Yet, this will certainly cause a frenzy in South Fla. as they prepare for yet another onslaught.
I thought the wind max displayed on the map at the TPC website was a typo ontil I read the advisory. My initial forecast (that I never posted) was for Cat 3 strength, maybe Cat 4.....wrong. Nothing suprises me anymore about this season.
One thing I...almost...am certain of is this intensity is very temporary. I project areas from Tampa to Fort Myers will be under the gun by Sat PM and will come ashore as a Cat 2 storm..the chief cause will be increasing shear and cooler SST's as it comes into the gulf. Yet, this will certainly cause a frenzy in South Fla. as they prepare for yet another onslaught.
Jeff Snyder
EF5
It is VERY curious that the hurricane-force winds extended only 15 miles from the eye. With record low pressure, I cannot imagine the pressure gradient that is present w/in that 15 miles of the eye. I equally cannot imagine that winds are "only" 175mph. This is the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic, the wind field is tiny, and yet the winds are "only" 175mph. I was certainly expecting more like 190mph max winds. The gradient in the pressure gradient is insane!
Morgan Palmer
EF5
I saw that too and thought it very curious. Rita had a hurricane/TS spread at one point before landfall of 85mi/205mi. And at that time, of course, its pressure was not as low.
The eye is only 4nm, which would suggest a small intense core of winds, but 15nm??? I might believe 30 or 40nm, but if it really is 15nm, could it break a record (we'll make one up) for the tightest pressure gradient ever recorded on the planet? I haven't looked at all the recon data and decoded it yet to look at the field.
The eye is only 4nm, which would suggest a small intense core of winds, but 15nm??? I might believe 30 or 40nm, but if it really is 15nm, could it break a record (we'll make one up) for the tightest pressure gradient ever recorded on the planet? I haven't looked at all the recon data and decoded it yet to look at the field.
cdcollura
EF5
Good morning,
Wilma, to the suprise of many, EXPLODED overnight.
Last night at 11 PM, I saw 972 MB at last report, with 100-MPH winds. Woke up this morning, only 6 hours later, and see 881 MB with 175 MPH sustained winds. I thought it was a joke or a misprint, but it is NOT.
First of all, 881 MB shatters the all-time Atlantic surface pressure record, which was presented back in 1988 by hurricane Gilbert, a record not broken until this morning, 17 years later.
Also, the pressure drop ... 972 to 881 MB in only 6 hours, that is a 91 MB drop in that time frame, averaging 15.2 MB PER HOUR - WOW!! Another record ... Explosive deepening re-defined!
Finally, the season 2004 has already broken a record for the first time TWO category 5 hurricanes were observed (Katrina and Rita) ... Now we have to say THREE category 5 storms.
These look like they (cat-4 storms) are not so rare anymore.
Now, we talk about SW Florida. Hopefully, as the storm turns that way, which it WILL, it will weaken from the effects of the trough. How much it will weaken is a question, but most models paint Wilma coming ashore near Naples, FL as a category 3 storm (most likely not a 5, thank God), but with as much as 130-MPH sustained in some models.
Still very bad, ESPECIALLY with storm surge. Take this thing seriously!!
As the storm comes in, it has a tight wind core, and that can change too, but this will confine the winds close to it's center. This morning, Wilma had the pin-hole eye, 2-4 miles wide, very much like Charley did back in 2004, as well as another storm, typhoon Forest back in 1970's near the Phillipines.
The point here is that such "pinhole" eyes spin up and down readily and have eyewall replacement / concentric eyewall cycles. Intensity is now most likely governed by internal dynamics of the storm, and can fluctuate easily as much as 2 categories from this alone.
Possibly, Wilma will have completed such a cycle, then encounter the trough, and weaken enough to "soften the blow" on SW FL. The storm will, ofcourse, weaken as it transits the state, and re-emerge on the other side as a weaker system, much like Charley did.
We really need to watch this thing closely.
Chris C - KG4PJN
Wilma, to the suprise of many, EXPLODED overnight.
Last night at 11 PM, I saw 972 MB at last report, with 100-MPH winds. Woke up this morning, only 6 hours later, and see 881 MB with 175 MPH sustained winds. I thought it was a joke or a misprint, but it is NOT.
First of all, 881 MB shatters the all-time Atlantic surface pressure record, which was presented back in 1988 by hurricane Gilbert, a record not broken until this morning, 17 years later.
Also, the pressure drop ... 972 to 881 MB in only 6 hours, that is a 91 MB drop in that time frame, averaging 15.2 MB PER HOUR - WOW!! Another record ... Explosive deepening re-defined!
Finally, the season 2004 has already broken a record for the first time TWO category 5 hurricanes were observed (Katrina and Rita) ... Now we have to say THREE category 5 storms.
These look like they (cat-4 storms) are not so rare anymore.
Now, we talk about SW Florida. Hopefully, as the storm turns that way, which it WILL, it will weaken from the effects of the trough. How much it will weaken is a question, but most models paint Wilma coming ashore near Naples, FL as a category 3 storm (most likely not a 5, thank God), but with as much as 130-MPH sustained in some models.
Still very bad, ESPECIALLY with storm surge. Take this thing seriously!!
As the storm comes in, it has a tight wind core, and that can change too, but this will confine the winds close to it's center. This morning, Wilma had the pin-hole eye, 2-4 miles wide, very much like Charley did back in 2004, as well as another storm, typhoon Forest back in 1970's near the Phillipines.
The point here is that such "pinhole" eyes spin up and down readily and have eyewall replacement / concentric eyewall cycles. Intensity is now most likely governed by internal dynamics of the storm, and can fluctuate easily as much as 2 categories from this alone.
Possibly, Wilma will have completed such a cycle, then encounter the trough, and weaken enough to "soften the blow" on SW FL. The storm will, ofcourse, weaken as it transits the state, and re-emerge on the other side as a weaker system, much like Charley did.
We really need to watch this thing closely.
Chris C - KG4PJN
Josh Durkee
EF1
Has any other tropical system gone from TS to Cat. 5 in this short amount of time?
HAltschule
EF5
Very doubtful. I have never seen something this explosive. Talk about Bombogenesis. I hereby define that this kind of deepening, 15 mb per hour, be known as "atomogenesis".
Even Meteorologist Buckwheat was shocked at the rate of Wilma's strengthening. (See Avatar picture on left). Enough said.
NOTE: Wilma is moving very erratically with the latest motion appearing to be to the West-Southwest or South now. I have a feeling this hurricane is going to give us all kinds of problems...especially big forecast problems.
