• A friendly and periodic reminder of the rules we use for fostering high SNR and quality conversation and interaction at Stormtrack: Forum rules

    P.S. - Nothing specific happened to prompt this message! No one is in trouble, there are no flame wars in effect, nor any inappropriate conversation ongoing. This is being posted sitewide as a casual refresher.

10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

Current analysis showing a focused area of surface moisture convergance across western FL. Strong insolation during the afternoon has allowed for the boundary layer to become very unstable -- with sbCAPE a widespread 2000-3000 j/kg. In addition, adequate vertical shear (40-50knts) will easily maintain storm-scale rotation, while increasing low-level shear as Wilma pushes closer will enhance the risk for tornadoes. A defined mini-supercell, now TOR-warned, to the southwest of Bowling Green is showing a nice low-level mesocyclone -- and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two from the convection now ongoing in the Tampa area.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.
 
I am living in Orlando now, I should have my night cut out for me! I think i may get a few gusts to hurricane force, not sure though. It is breezy here. those radar sigs. look like the nasty hook echos from back home....
 
The storm entering SWrn Brevard county very likely has a tornado on the ground. It has shown very persistant rotation for the better part of an hour and a half with several ground truth reports coming in, but thankfully this storm should cross US 192 to the west of the populated areas right along the shore. Everyone in the southern 2/3 of the FL peninsula really needs to have all of their attention focused on the tornado threat as it is a very real one.
 
I just saw the vid of that wedge waterspout. I didn't realize they could get that big. Could it be that it was an actual tornado, just over water?
I know that sounds rather like a stupid question, but, even though waterspouts are "defined" as tornadoes over water, they are not usually associated with convective weather. Thoughts?...opinions?...
Angie
 
picture0vvv467ca.jpg

This was posted as a Waterspout from today in Florida on a photography forum that I frequent. I take no credit for the picture and heres a link to the thread on the other forum http://photography-on-the.net/forum/showth...ad.php?t=107613.
 
Originally posted by Angie Norris
I just saw the vid of that wedge waterspout. I didn't realize they could get that big. Could it be that it was an actual tornado, just over water?
I know that sounds rather like a stupid question, but, even though waterspouts are \"defined\" as tornadoes over water, they are not usually associated with convective weather. Thoughts?...opinions?...
Angie

It was a tornado over water. Just like the ones that happen over land with a hurricane (although I think I read they most likely happen more often once a hurricane begins to make/makes contact with land due to increased friction, which creates differences in wind speed/direction with height; and greater instability because lands heats up fairly quickly, compared to water, with cloud gaps).

As far as a "fair-weather" waterspout is concerned, even these are associated with convective currents. Any type of cumulus is created by convection, whether it be a cumulonimbus, or a cumulus congestus (a shower, or even the old "Few Cu (humilis)"). These tend to be weak, but they are still associated with convection....just not the good old plains type supercell :)

Anyway, you asked for my opinion....How correct it is will always be subject to interpretation! :)

Pat
 
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 
It does seem that the wdege waterspout was spawned by a supercell so it was a tornado...just over water.
John, that cell has a tornado on the ground.
This is going to be a wild night for Florida.
Angie
 
Reports are now coming in that the Brevard County tornado struck the visitors center at the Kennedy Space Center! WOW

Here's another report from what appears to be the same tornado earlier in its lifespan.

CHANNEL 13 TV REPORT CONTINUED IN THE COCOA VILLAGE/ROCKLEDGE AREA. DAMAGE TO APARTMENT COMPLEX IN AREA. EXTENT OF DAMAGE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. REPORTED BETWEEN 943PM AND 947 PM.
 
WOW! That is an amazing report regarding the Space Center! Don't know that this has ever happened before??

Thanks for the info!

Pat
 
No surprise we saw some decent tornadic supercells today... The Key West and Miami 0z soundings are both very favorable for tornadic supercells, with the Key West sounding showing ~2000 j/kg CAPE and >500 0-3km SRH.

EDIT: Just saw that the 1z Day 1 from SPC shows MDT risk with 15% hatched tornado risk for sw FL. This is quite impressive, and I don't think I have ever seen such a high risk for a landfalling hurricane. I've seen 15% before, but not 15% hatched. Typically, the highest tornado threat develops the day or two after landfall, as the cyclone weakens and allows for the development of stronger instability downstream.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
No surprise we saw some decent tornadic supercells today... The Key West and Miami 0z soundings are both very favorable for tornadic supercells, with the Key West sounding showing ~2000 j/kg CAPE and >500 0-3km SRH.

EDIT: Just saw that the 1z Day 1 from SPC shows MDT risk with 15% hatched tornado risk for sw FL. This is quite impressive, and I don't think I have ever seen such a high risk for a landfalling hurricane. I've seen 15% before, but not 15% hatched. Typically, the highest tornado threat develops the day or two after landfall, as the cyclone weakens and allows for the development of stronger instability downstream.

SBCAPE remains near 3000J/kg and it was closer to 4000 at the time of Day 1 issuance.
 
"Reports are now coming in that the Brevard County tornado struck the visitors center at the Kennedy Space Center!"

I talked to people around KSC and they say it pulled up before approaching the VC - got any more info?
 
anyone know where we can track the hurricane recon aircraft? I wish they had like a live webcam you could view on the web of what they're going through or at least have a page of recent .gif images.
Nother question I have, how much lightning do hurricanes have? Is it sporadic or does it differ from hurricane to hurricane?
 
disregard, I'm an idiot.

There's a new recon flight about to take off in GA.


Also...in response to rdale's point, I talked to a friend in the Titusville area and they said that there was damage reported on the news. I haven't heard anything since, and have been scouring the news pages looking for more information finding nothing, however. I think there's a chance that this may have been a hasty reporter talking about something unconfirmed...though I do know that there was confirmed damage a short distance from the facility.
 
WOW

Recent recon pass through the SE eyewall of Wilma found -- get this -- 130kt FL winds. That would rediculously make this storm a Category 4...a lot of people did NOT evacuate for Wilma because they expected 'only' a category two. This is really bad news for a lot of people. The eye diameter is still humongous and, in the last half an hour, a SErn eyewall has really come together.

0608. 2437N 08226W 03041 5231 222 124 104 104 127 02853 0000000100
0609 2436N 08224W 03047 5221 221 129 086 086 130 02870 0000000100
0609. 2435N 08222W 03048 5207 218 127 082 082 129 02885 0000000100

EDIT: Just reviewing my post now and am wondering if I might have overlooked something...does the "1" instead of a "0" in the third digit from the right in the last column on the right indicate that the windspeeds are inaccurate?
 
well thats certainly an interesting development. 130knots flight level supports a borderline 4 using the standard reduction, which keep in mind, was significantly understimating surface winds in cancun for wilma. 955 mb is typically a weak 3, especially with a wind field so broad... storm motion now is fast but its not that fast, considering we can see late season and high latitude tropical storms really crank at 40+knots, like wilma will be doing in a day. I guess thats why weather is so fascinating... you never know when the big surprises are coming. With the right side eyewall about to approach the keys, I think the people there who were expecing a 2 could be in for a really big one.
 
does the \"1\" instead of a \"0\" in the third digit from the right in the last column on the right indicate that the windspeeds are inaccurate?

I really have no clue what those numbers meen, but I have never heard the planes onboard instruments called into question. Its probably a dual inertial nav + GPS system that calculates winds, and they are pretty accurate.

EDIT:plane has doubled back to recheck the winds in that region.
 
even better... 135

0644. 2440N 08205W 03045 5170 216 123 078 078 128 02918 0000000100
0645 2441N 08207W 03046 5180 216 128 078 078 130 02909 0000000100
0645. 2442N 08208W 03051 5190 219 131 082 082 134 02904 0000000100
0646 2443N 08209W 03043 5204 222 132 090 090 135 02883 0000000100
0646. 2443N 08210W 03055 5211 221 114 096 096 119 02887 0000000100
 
Back
Top