10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

Hurricane Wilma will be increasing in velocity, over the next 12 hours, nocturnally do to the turning from a system. In the next 24 hours, I believe it will take a turn for the worse, an dbecome a CAT 4....then 3, due to the cold water it will engulf soon...
 
There's a difference between the SPC indicating "isolated tornadoes may be possible" and you saying this will be "a BIG tornado producer." There is an inherent tornado threat with any landfalling tropical cyclone, and this is the reason for the SPC even mentioning the word 'tornado' six days away. Impossible to predict the extent of any potential tornado threat beyond the point that they may be possible...

Also, check out the view of Hurricane Wilma from the ISS.
http://www.nbc30.com/news/5127310/detail.html
 
I am unsure if this is the place to post this

and apologize in advance if it is not (and would hope the mods would move it to the roight place for me)
I amcurrently in New Port Richey (a little north of Tampa) visiting family

If there is anyone in Fla who would be interested in getting together to go poking around the edges of this storm, please contact me at 706-207-0227
 
Signs of a eye appearing again. I think she will emerge with a huge eye, quite the contrast from the pinhole eye W had tues/wed. W is also appears to be making her NW turn...hopefully avoiding the vacation hotspots in Yucatan P. I think we will see W strenghten tonight back to cat 5.
 
Agree. Looks like the ERC is nearing completion and W should tighen up a bit overnight and have a fairly large wind field. Cozumel already sustained at 40 mph. Not a very good scenario right now where Cancun (pop. 500k) could get hit with Cat 4+ winds for solid duration as W makes her hook over or near the city. The buildings there are said to be built to withstand strong hurricane winds... but after Katrina you have to wonder about surge. W has had a couple days now to convert wind energy into wave energy
 
Crazy supercells in one of the outer bands currently rotating towards the NE Yucatan coast. I'm sure there are some intense tornadoes embedded, and this just adds to the severity of the situation for Cancun-Cozumel.

2257z radar:
radcanc1cq.jpg


WORST TIMING EVER FOR AN ERC -- Wilma will be strengthening back up to category 5 as it approaches the shore. I hope everyone is hunkered down in a STURDY, STURDY shelter because this is going to be way up there on Mexico's list of worst hurricanes ever.
 
Sounds like they are preparing well... I have a 2nd cousin and his wife in Cancun for vacation. As of yesterday, they were being ushered off to a storm shelter.

Aaron
 
Originally posted by Sam Sagnella
WORST TIMING EVER FOR AN ERC -- Wilma will be strengthening back up to category 5 as it approaches the shore. I hope everyone is hunkered down in a STURDY, STURDY shelter because this is going to be way up there on Mexico's list of worst hurricanes ever.
Click to expand...
Yea...couldn't agree with you more, but it is my feeling that Cozumel and Cancun will at least avoid the ne quadurant. However, with W moving so slow, it doesn't really matter very much. :roll:
I know Cozumel is an island, but how will the possible 25 foot surge effect the area. Will it completely cover Cozumel?
 
I dont think the surge is going to be that bad. At least nothing on the order of katrina. The angle of approach and topography of the region is not conducive to epic surge. But cat 5 winds, if they strike cancun dead on, will clearly be devastating.
 
Originally posted by MClarkson
I dont think the surge is going to be that bad. At least nothing on the order of katrina. The angle of approach and topography of the region is not conducive to epic surge. But cat 5 winds, if they strike cancun dead on, will clearly be devastating.
Click to expand...

While I don't think surge will be as bad as Katrina, I wouldn't discount it too much, given that the c.p. was 882mb yesterday morning, and it was a Cat 5 for almost a day. The eye does appear to be clearing out nicely now, with a symmetric cloud top pattern indicative of a well-organized, strong hurricane. The timing is not favorable for those in the ne Yucatan, as the semi-typical nocturnal convective flare-up looks as if it will coincide with the semi-typical strengthening that occurs after an ERC.
 
Buoy 42056 is located roughly 75 miles away from the 00z NHC position.
Wave Height (WVHT): 32.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 12 sec
Average Period (APD): 8.9 sec
Click to expand...

These major league waves will be very destructive along the heavily-developed and commercialized east-facing beaches of the Yucatan.
 
Keep in mind that when it was a Cat 5 that the hurricane force winds only extended 15nmi from the eye... I'm sure that has a negative impact on surge protection... at least for a large area.

Aaron
 
its not the strength its the geography, and oblique angle of approach.

The coast of the northern yucatan is relatively steep, which reduces surge. Cancun is a convex coastline, the water can flow around to the north.
 
Wilma has GOT to be very close to being a Category 5 right now...impressive deep convection now completely encircles they eye and it appears as though the ERC is now completely over.

03z update a 155mph Category 4?
 
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