10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

[Justin Walker]

Here is a image I found regarding the surge potential. As MClarkson stated, the Cancun/Cozumel area has geography working for them with the steep shelf.
EDIT: Sorry if some misunderstood...I was infering surge potential from the geography.

 

[Andrew Khan]

Wow, looks like New Orleans might get another run for they're money...hope all will go well. Where did you get t his graphic?

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
Wow, looks like New Orleans might get another run for they're money...hope all will go well. Where did you get t his graphic?

Um, no it won't...not even close. That graphic is just the ocean depth (an indication of surge potential) -- not the surge forecast.

 

[HAltschule]

Why would New Orleans get a run for its money? I don't get it? Not even remotely close to affecting N.O. other than some higher swells.

 

[Andrew Khan]

I was talking about higher waves/storm surge.....I am aware it is no where NEAR N.O...you mis-understood what I was stating....

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Andrew Khan
I was talking about higher waves/storm surge.....I am aware it is no where NEAR N.O...you mis-understood what I was stating....

They're most likely not going to get any storm surge with the system staying quite far away from New Orleans.

 

[Pat Lawrence]

WOW, Justin! That is a great bathymetric map! Kudos to the producer of the image.

Pat

 

[Justin Walker]

Originally posted by Pat Lawrence
WOW, Justin! That is a great bathymetric map! Kudos to the producer of the image.

Let me give credit where credit is due. You can find many bathymetric maps here. I got the previous image from Jeff Masters' Wunder Blog. Jeff really knows his hurricane stuff.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

0447. 2006N 08537W 03050 5083 126 112 078 078 116 02972 0000000000

Recon is showing sustained FL winds of 112kt still more than 60 miles from the 03z position.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Sam Sagnella

0447. 2006N 08537W 03050 5083 126 112 078 078 116 02972 0000000000

Recon is showing sustained FL winds of 112kt still more than 60 miles from the 03z position.

Sam,

I thought the wind ob was the one that's second from the right... So 116kts in this case... No?

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jeff Snyder)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Sam Sagnella

0447. 2006N 08537W 03050 5083 126 112 078 078 116 02972 0000000000

Recon is showing sustained FL winds of 112kt still more than 60 miles from the 03z position.

Sam,

I thought the wind ob was the one that's second from the right... So 116kts in this case... No?[/b]

They're both wind obs, the one second from the right is the peak 10-sec wind speed for the period and is thus not counted as 'official' (as I understand it), the one I highlighted is the average wind speed for the period.

EDIT: It appears as though there is a double wind maxima of 112kt and 125kt at a radius of ~60nm and ~30nm, respectively.

EDIT2: They reached the center at 0502z, and it is located very near 19d25'N, 86d03'W. Curiously, the highest FL winds on the inbound leg were 'only' 125kt.

EDIT3: The latest VORTEX has a minimum central pressure of 930mb, an eye diameter of 35 miles, with an eye/eyewall temperature difference of +10C.

URNT12 KNHC 210516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/05:01:20Z
B. 19 deg 26 min N
086 deg 02 min W
C. 700 mb 2477 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 128 kt
G. 28 deg 019 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 10 C/ 3051 m
J. 20 C/ 3054 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 1324A WILMA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 128 KT NE QUAD 04:55:50 Z

This is not what I expected them to find...however, it is quite possible that they have not yet sampled the highest winds, which are likely in the eastern eyewall.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Wilma has continued to weaken slowly, despite the emergence of a nice, albeit large (35mi in diameter), eye this evening. Latest VORTEX data message shows a 930mb central pressure with 128kt max flight-level winds. Standard 10% reduction yields 115kt surface winds, or weak Cat 4. The eye has become a little more ragged in the last IR image, though I was surprised to new fresh imagery at all since we should be an hour and a half into the GOES 12 eclipse time. Regardless, shear analysis from CIMSS at U-Wisc indicated largely <10kt shear over most of the storm. WV imagery showing dry air munching away on the western portion of Wilma, with very little advancements in the upper-level outflow to the west over the past several hours. The lack of expansion looks to be a function of both dry air and weak westerly shear. It does appear that the storm has turned a bit more to the west relative to its motion the past 3-4 hours, as has been expected with the trough to the north not picking Wilma up (but providing enough sw flow aloft to allow it to gain latitude more quickly). The wind field is pretty large, however. Temp gradient across the eyewall is 10 degrees, with eye temp of 20. Given this, and its sat appearance, I do think it could strengthen a bit tonight, but I don't really see it getting above strong Cat 4 again.

 

[MClarkson]

with land interaction likely beginning soon, the onset of a bit of westerly shear, the large windfield, I think their isnt much time left for strengthening.

With the large windfield and healthy eye, I dont see much more than slow weakening either, till the eye gets near shore.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Even though recon still finds a double wind maxima, the eye has contracted down from 35mi wide to 30mi and the pressure has dropped one millibar in the last hour.

 

[David Wolfson]

W. is definitely moving NNW in the last few sat pics. Unless it jogs west in the next few hours Cozumel will catch only the west eyewall and the big eye itself may just graze the tip of Yucatan at Cancun. The eye also seems to be tightening down a bit more. I dunno how they do it, but WeatherTAP is updating the satellite every ten minutes or so with a picture that's only a few minutes old when it posts. Quite mesmerizing, actually!