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10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

It's an interesting situation... Key West radar shows significnatly weaker returns in the western part of the eyewall, while satellite shows very cold convection over the same area. I understand attentuation and beam height, but I would still expect stronger returns over the western quad. The only thing I can think of is that the precip is originating from the updrafts that are int he western half of the storm, but the precip is being rapidly shoved around the storm and into the eastern half.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
The only thing I can think of is that the precip is originating from the updrafts that are int he western half of the storm, but the precip is being rapidly shoved around the storm and into the eastern half.

That would be absolutely amazing if that is in fact what's occurring. Also, the TPC only bumped Wilma up to 120mph for the 0700z advisory...hmm...
 
That is interesting that they bumped it up only 5mph. I'm trying to figure out what's going on in the eye right now... A look at Key West radar shows that either the eye is consolidating rather quickly, or the eye is filling in a bit. The eye is certainly less circular now. There was a very interesting feature that has slammed around the se quad of the storm in the past 20 minutes. It looked like a 'ripple' in the inner eyewall.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
That is interesting that they bumped it up only 5mph. I'm trying to figure out what's going on in the eye right now... A look at Key West radar shows that either the eye is consolidating rather quickly, or the eye is filling in a bit. The eye is certainly less circular now. There was a very interesting feature that has slammed around the se quad of the storm in the past 20 minutes. It looked like a 'ripple' in the inner eyewall.

I noticed that 'ripple' too and I was noticing how quickly it whipped around the SE eyewall and that was also in the same area and timeframe of those 130/135kt wind readings. Interesting.
 
latest vortex reports lightning in the eyewall, which is indicative of reorganizing of some sort, in this case, clearly strengthening.

Pressure down to 952 with 10 knots of wind on the drop, so maybe 951.
 
Yeah, definately some mixed signals with Wilma. The radar presentation has deteriorated some, and pressure is still high for a possible Cat 4. Then again, recon did measure 135kt, the eyewall temp grad is up to 9mb, and lightning is being observed in the eyewall. That high wind max may have been associated with that odd mesoscale feature that whipped around the eastern part of the storm.
 
WOW! Check out the line of storms that will be going into the Orlando area that is forming now to the SE. Mickey Mouse better be spotting for tornadoes right now. Juat a line of Sups forming there. Too bad this thing isnt coming in during daylight. However there may be some "lucky" folks be in the eye at daybreak. What a sight that would be.
 
I think theres some attenuation since keywest is getting rained on hard.

look at miami long range and it looks better defined... plus miami isnt going to be picking up all the low level crud that is often present even in somewhat healthy eyes.
 
The eye has really started becoming elongated north to south and I'm sure that any strenthening trend observed earlier is over. Good luck to all those riding out the storm in the Naples area, which has unfortunately also seen tornado damage in the past two hours.
 
Station in Naples, FL is reporting pressure of 966mb, current winds are at 55mph with gusts up to 75mph. The eye is right south of the city. It seems landfall will be over Marco area (20km SSE of Naples) as strong CAT 3.
Large eye still well visible on satellites/radar with impressive cold cloud tops around.
 
I still wonder if in the post mortem on this storm, they don't upgrade it to Cat 4. There were some 126 kt recon readings in the SE eyewall as the storm was landfalling. It's weird, because the pressure doesn't really support it that well at 950mb, but the numbers don't lie. It's possible that there isn't a 90% reduction going on, I dunno... I'm guessing that there are going to be a lot of papers written about the hurricanes this year. ;)
 
The Tower at Everglades city just reported 953.6mb.
Still haven't been able to find anything regarding windspeed except weak CAT 1 stuff. Key West was getting some strong winds near hurricane force when I went to sleep at 1am but it looks as though the station may have suffered damage.

EDIT: RUNNING LIST OF BEST CREDIBLE WIND REPORTS FOUND:

BUOY NEAR KEY-WEST: 8z
74KTS SUSTAINED 90KTS GUSTS

OCHOBI TOWER:
10-m WM: 60.0 Sec 39.4 m/s ( 88.2 mph) @ 155.7° @ 24/10:56:58

10-m WM: 3.0 Sec 46.9 m/s ( 104.8 mph) @ 154.5° @ 24/11:06:31
956mb

Looks like areas around Miami may get the worst of it. Already lots of 55mph and 70+ gusts

EDIT: PRESSURE GOT WAS AS LOW AS RECORDED AS 954mb by Everglades Tower.
 
Interesting thing... Miami 88D is in VCP 121, but they are generating new Tilt 1 images every 1 minute in some cases, or at least every 4 minutes consistently. It appears that they're using only the lowest tilts, so scan time is much faster. Never seen an NWSFO set up a scan strategy to allow for 1 minute 0.5degree updates. They seem to be back to 4-5 minute updates now.
 
Found a non-NWS station thats part of CO-OP that seems to look alright at the moment.

77mph /113mph gust CHKF1
A station nearby reported 69sus/105gust

West Palm Beach 75mph sus/94 gust
 
NWS Key West employees observed a very intense, long lived waterspout that lasted over 1 1/2 hours. This report was in their words. Wow.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
Interesting thing... Miami 88D is in VCP 121, but they are generating new Tilt 1 images every 1 minute in some cases, or at least every 4 minutes consistently. It appears that they're using only the lowest tilts, so scan time is much faster. Never seen an NWSFO set up a scan strategy to allow for 1 minute 0.5degree updates. They seem to be back to 4-5 minute updates now.
There is no rapid-scan VCP (yet - 2.3 minutes on the way). What they were doing was apparently manually restarting the VCP after each 0.5 tilt. I've seen the OUN WFO do this on occasion for low-topped storms. It does, BTW, mess up all the algorithms that rely on complete volume scan data.
 
Anyone have a website for a good webcam that is actually still working in the Boca Raton area? Please let me know if you do.
 
Originally posted by HAltschule
NWS Key West employees observed a very intense, long lived waterspout that lasted over 1 1/2 hours. This report was in their words. Wow.

Just to add:
LARGE INTENSE WATER SPOUT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER
RAINBAND OF TC WILMA WAS SPOTTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEES...ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF THE WEST END OF
KEY WEST AT CLOSEST APPROACH...AND MOVING NNW AT ABOUT 40 MPH. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS VERY LONG LIVED...AT LEAST 1.5
HOURS.

They observed a waterspout that was moving 40mph for 1.5 hrs? If so, I hope he had a camera thats just incredible.

EDIT:
Take a look at the Fowey Rocks Buoy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...p?station=FWYF1

The NWS in Miami is reporting the Buoy with higher windspeeds than that displayed. Can someone clarify why?

8 am SUSTAINED WIND OF 101 MPH WITH GUST TO 127 MPH AT FOWEY
ROCKS CMAN.

The buoy shows 101 and 109 respectively. Anemometer height: 43.9 m above site elevation, are they using some sort of formula here or just a typo on the gust?

Several of their reported windspeeds for Fowey Rocks don't match up at all with anything.
 
Originally posted by Scott Olson+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Scott Olson)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-HAltschule
NWS Key West employees observed a very intense, long lived waterspout that lasted over 1 1/2 hours. This report was in their words. Wow.

Just to add:
LARGE INTENSE WATER SPOUT ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER
RAINBAND OF TC WILMA WAS SPOTTED BY NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EMPLOYEES...ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF THE WEST END OF
KEY WEST AT CLOSEST APPROACH...AND MOVING NNW AT ABOUT 40 MPH. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS VERY LONG LIVED...AT LEAST 1.5
HOURS.

They observed a waterspout that was moving 40mph for 1.5 hrs? If so, I hope he had a camera thats just incredible.[/b]

Yeah, that certainly doesn't seem right. However, if the 1.5 "hours" was in error, 1.5 "minutes" probably wouldn't draw the "very long lived" comment, so I don't think it's a typo. That said, I'm not sure how you could observe a waterspout/tornado for 1.5 hours when it's moving 40mph (heck, it's in a hurricane, so I wouldn't be surprised it the motion was a little faster). I guess it's probably possible, since that means the waterspout tracked 60 miles, which may have been viewable the entire time if it started 30 miles from the office, moved closer, then away.
 
City officials in Pompano Beach, FL report 120mph gust on their weather computer system. 9:40am

PS: 10:23am report. My mom lives in Boca Raton, FL and says that car windows have been blown out in the parking lot and that huge trees are down making most roads impassable. She said this Hurricane is worse in Boca Raton than any Hurricanes of last year.
 
Obviously most of the damage is probably going to be on the eastern side of FL since it impacted alot of the everglades and since that part is highly populated. The tower in Everglades City did record a near vortex pressure of 954mb which is pretty impressive and sustained winds in the mid-category 1 range. Best sustained wind i've seen was 88mph but there have been alot of strong guests from Miami to Palm Beach.

EDIT: West Palm Beach recorded a 100mph gust at 1310z
EDIT: A RAWS Station recorded a 110mph gust
 
I have seen a lot of gusts in the 110-125mph range, but the highest sustained winds that I've seen so far have been right around 90mph. FCMP towers remained <= 90mph on the 60-sec, and <120mph on the 3 sec gusts.
 
This report from Dry Tortugas National Park:

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE EMPLOYEES RECORDED A 134 MPH WIND GUST AND 13 TO 15 FOOT STORM SURGE AT FORT JEFFERSON IN THE EYEWALL OF WILMA.

Might not be so dry this morning :lol:
 
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