Wilma has continued to weaken slowly, despite the emergence of a nice, albeit large (35mi in diameter), eye this evening. Latest VORTEX data message shows a 930mb central pressure with 128kt max flight-level winds. Standard 10% reduction yields 115kt surface winds, or weak Cat 4. The eye has become a little more ragged in the last IR image, though I was surprised to new fresh imagery at all since we should be an hour and a half into the GOES 12 eclipse time. Regardless, shear analysis from CIMSS at U-Wisc indicated largely <10kt shear over most of the storm. WV imagery showing dry air munching away on the western portion of Wilma, with very little advancements in the upper-level outflow to the west over the past several hours. The lack of expansion looks to be a function of both dry air and weak westerly shear. It does appear that the storm has turned a bit more to the west relative to its motion the past 3-4 hours, as has been expected with the trough to the north not picking Wilma up (but providing enough sw flow aloft to allow it to gain latitude more quickly). The wind field is pretty large, however. Temp gradient across the eyewall is 10 degrees, with eye temp of 20. Given this, and its sat appearance, I do think it could strengthen a bit tonight, but I don't really see it getting above strong Cat 4 again.
