10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

I thought I saw a hook echo on the radar about 10:10EST near Orlando. I didn't notice anything looking at the velocity images though, just some green in the red and what not...wow...I might have to go...um..."out" tomorrow...I just wish I could.

Jason
 
Current analysis showing a focused area of surface moisture convergance across western FL. Strong insolation during the afternoon has allowed for the boundary layer to become very unstable -- with sbCAPE a widespread 2000-3000 j/kg. In addition, adequate vertical shear (40-50knts) will easily maintain storm-scale rotation, while increasing low-level shear as Wilma pushes closer will enhance the risk for tornadoes. A defined mini-supercell, now TOR-warned, to the southwest of Bowling Green is showing a nice low-level mesocyclone -- and I wouldn't be surprised to see a tornado or two from the convection now ongoing in the Tampa area.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.
 
I am living in Orlando now, I should have my night cut out for me! I think i may get a few gusts to hurricane force, not sure though. It is breezy here. those radar sigs. look like the nasty hook echos from back home....
 
The storm entering SWrn Brevard county very likely has a tornado on the ground. It has shown very persistant rotation for the better part of an hour and a half with several ground truth reports coming in, but thankfully this storm should cross US 192 to the west of the populated areas right along the shore. Everyone in the southern 2/3 of the FL peninsula really needs to have all of their attention focused on the tornado threat as it is a very real one.
 
I just saw the vid of that wedge waterspout. I didn't realize they could get that big. Could it be that it was an actual tornado, just over water?
I know that sounds rather like a stupid question, but, even though waterspouts are "defined" as tornadoes over water, they are not usually associated with convective weather. Thoughts?...opinions?...
Angie
 
picture0vvv467ca.jpg

This was posted as a Waterspout from today in Florida on a photography forum that I frequent. I take no credit for the picture and heres a link to the thread on the other forum http://photography-on-the.net/forum/showth...ad.php?t=107613.
 
Originally posted by Angie Norris
I just saw the vid of that wedge waterspout. I didn't realize they could get that big. Could it be that it was an actual tornado, just over water?
I know that sounds rather like a stupid question, but, even though waterspouts are \"defined\" as tornadoes over water, they are not usually associated with convective weather. Thoughts?...opinions?...
Angie

It was a tornado over water. Just like the ones that happen over land with a hurricane (although I think I read they most likely happen more often once a hurricane begins to make/makes contact with land due to increased friction, which creates differences in wind speed/direction with height; and greater instability because lands heats up fairly quickly, compared to water, with cloud gaps).

As far as a "fair-weather" waterspout is concerned, even these are associated with convective currents. Any type of cumulus is created by convection, whether it be a cumulonimbus, or a cumulus congestus (a shower, or even the old "Few Cu (humilis)"). These tend to be weak, but they are still associated with convection....just not the good old plains type supercell :)

Anyway, you asked for my opinion....How correct it is will always be subject to interpretation! :)

Pat
 
RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN KEY WEST FLORIDA INDICATE WILMA IS VERY NEAR CATEGORY THREE...OR MAJOR... HURRICANE STRENGTH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 
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