10/18/05 NOW: Hurricane Wilma

[Jeff Snyder]

It's an interesting situation... Key West radar shows significnatly weaker returns in the western part of the eyewall, while satellite shows very cold convection over the same area. I understand attentuation and beam height, but I would still expect stronger returns over the western quad. The only thing I can think of is that the precip is originating from the updrafts that are int he western half of the storm, but the precip is being rapidly shoved around the storm and into the eastern half.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
The only thing I can think of is that the precip is originating from the updrafts that are int he western half of the storm, but the precip is being rapidly shoved around the storm and into the eastern half.

That would be absolutely amazing if that is in fact what's occurring. Also, the TPC only bumped Wilma up to 120mph for the 0700z advisory...hmm...

 

[Jeff Snyder]

That is interesting that they bumped it up only 5mph. I'm trying to figure out what's going on in the eye right now... A look at Key West radar shows that either the eye is consolidating rather quickly, or the eye is filling in a bit. The eye is certainly less circular now. There was a very interesting feature that has slammed around the se quad of the storm in the past 20 minutes. It looked like a 'ripple' in the inner eyewall.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder
That is interesting that they bumped it up only 5mph. I'm trying to figure out what's going on in the eye right now... A look at Key West radar shows that either the eye is consolidating rather quickly, or the eye is filling in a bit. The eye is certainly less circular now. There was a very interesting feature that has slammed around the se quad of the storm in the past 20 minutes. It looked like a 'ripple' in the inner eyewall.

I noticed that 'ripple' too and I was noticing how quickly it whipped around the SE eyewall and that was also in the same area and timeframe of those 130/135kt wind readings. Interesting.

 

[MClarkson]

latest vortex reports lightning in the eyewall, which is indicative of reorganizing of some sort, in this case, clearly strengthening.

Pressure down to 952 with 10 knots of wind on the drop, so maybe 951.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Yeah, definately some mixed signals with Wilma. The radar presentation has deteriorated some, and pressure is still high for a possible Cat 4. Then again, recon did measure 135kt, the eyewall temp grad is up to 9mb, and lightning is being observed in the eyewall. That high wind max may have been associated with that odd mesoscale feature that whipped around the eastern part of the storm.

 

[Jason A.C. Brock]

WOW! Check out the line of storms that will be going into the Orlando area that is forming now to the SE. Mickey Mouse better be spotting for tornadoes right now. Juat a line of Sups forming there. Too bad this thing isnt coming in during daylight. However there may be some "lucky" folks be in the eye at daybreak. What a sight that would be.

 

[MClarkson]

I think theres some attenuation since keywest is getting rained on hard.

look at miami long range and it looks better defined... plus miami isnt going to be picking up all the low level crud that is often present even in somewhat healthy eyes.

 

[J West]

Just a reminder to check out the local media nutjobs...I'm watching the multi-feed and it's pretty funny watching the on-air guys having a bad hair day. Why they insist on being outside in a hurricane is beyond me.

http://www.weatherserver.net/hurricanecenter/

 

[Sam Sagnella]

The eye has really started becoming elongated north to south and I'm sure that any strenthening trend observed earlier is over. Good luck to all those riding out the storm in the Naples area, which has unfortunately also seen tornado damage in the past two hours.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Station in Naples, FL is reporting pressure of 966mb, current winds are at 55mph with gusts up to 75mph. The eye is right south of the city. It seems landfall will be over Marco area (20km SSE of Naples) as strong CAT 3.
Large eye still well visible on satellites/radar with impressive cold cloud tops around.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I still wonder if in the post mortem on this storm, they don't upgrade it to Cat 4. There were some 126 kt recon readings in the SE eyewall as the storm was landfalling. It's weird, because the pressure doesn't really support it that well at 950mb, but the numbers don't lie. It's possible that there isn't a 90% reduction going on, I dunno... I'm guessing that there are going to be a lot of papers written about the hurricanes this year.

 

[Scott Olson]

The Tower at Everglades city just reported 953.6mb.
Still haven't been able to find anything regarding windspeed except weak CAT 1 stuff. Key West was getting some strong winds near hurricane force when I went to sleep at 1am but it looks as though the station may have suffered damage.

EDIT: RUNNING LIST OF BEST CREDIBLE WIND REPORTS FOUND:

BUOY NEAR KEY-WEST: 8z
74KTS SUSTAINED 90KTS GUSTS

OCHOBI TOWER:
10-m WM: 60.0 Sec 39.4 m/s ( 88.2 mph) @ 155.7° @ 24/10:56:58

10-m WM: 3.0 Sec 46.9 m/s ( 104.8 mph) @ 154.5° @ 24/11:06:31
956mb

Looks like areas around Miami may get the worst of it. Already lots of 55mph and 70+ gusts

EDIT: PRESSURE GOT WAS AS LOW AS RECORDED AS 954mb by Everglades Tower.

 

[Marko Korosec]

Current reports:

Miami: 65mph, gusts 92mph (pressure 969mb)
Ft Lauderdale: 55mph, gusts 83mph
Fort Myers: 55mph, gusts 70mph
Pompano Beach: 58mph, gusts 75mph
Naples: 61mph, gusts 82mph

Here is one automatic WS in Miami which is reporting gusts ~80mph: http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation...p?ID=KFLMIAMI15

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Interesting thing... Miami 88D is in VCP 121, but they are generating new Tilt 1 images every 1 minute in some cases, or at least every 4 minutes consistently. It appears that they're using only the lowest tilts, so scan time is much faster. Never seen an NWSFO set up a scan strategy to allow for 1 minute 0.5degree updates. They seem to be back to 4-5 minute updates now.