09/10/10 NOW: KS, MO, OK

[Mike Smith]

Tornado watch in effect until 1am.

At 6:55pm clusters of storms are north of Topeka, northeast of downtown KC and near Ottawa.

There is a wave on the front (sfc analysis + fine line on TICT) southwest of Wichita. There are TCU visible southwest of ICT. This area would seem to be most promising for a tornado if thunderstorms develop and sfc winds continue to back.

Extremely unstable east of a BIE-FRI-15W of ICT to 25 NW of END.

UPDATE: 7:03pm. Weak rotation indicated in cell just NE of St. Marys. SVR just issued on storm. Weak hook on 1.45° tilt from TOP -88D.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The first storm that was west of Holton, KS looked good briefly before having its inflow invaded by outflow from the storm to its southwest. That storm (the one just northeast of St. Mary's) has an OFB outrunning its inflow region and will not be producing a tornado. The one just to its southwest (the one near KTWX), does not appear to be organized at this time, and the storm southwest of that (it was near Alta Vista) has fallen apart.

 

[Mike Smith]

Exploding thunderstorms NW of El Dorado and near Conway Springs, KS. Storms are moving ENE. The northern storm appears to already have hail.