07L: Hurricane Gustav

[MClarkson]

Last plane eye pass extrapped 953mb. Sat image good and getting better. Lightning is a good indication of unbalanced eye structure and a rapid change, in this case, intensification. Would be surprised if we dont see a 4 or a 5 before Cuba. Western Cuba is going to get *nailed*.

 

[B Ozanne]

On its current track the eye will pass over or east of the Isle of Youth. The 8am NHC track is west of the Isle of Youth. Unless of course it wobbles back. This small change now could lead to a dramatic shift in the cone at the end of 3 days.

 

[Warren Faidley]

72 hours ahead of time it is impossible to have any idea if the landfall will be during night or day. 2 mph speed change, or a 3 % change in angle of approach each can change landfall time by 12 hrs. or more.

You are absolutely right. I'm still planning on heading out, especially now that back-up storm Hanna is looking more like it might strike Florida. I'm also still thinking the path of Gustav will end up being shifted more east, as any wobble or minor flux in the H/L set-up could change things by several hundred miles, either way. As someone else noted, there has been a slight shift to the east in recent sat. images.

W.

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I don't know how relevant the latest (06z) GFDL run is but wow 137 knts peak winds at landfall definitely got my attention. Also 142 knts at 42 hours, jeez. Luckily the HWRF has a drastically different prediction of near 100 kts at landfall. So take that for what its worth.

 

[MatthewCarman]

So far the death toll has risen to over 70 people. Time for round 2 when Gustav and Hannah both hit the US.

 

[rdale]

Wouldn't that be round 3 for Gustav? And I'm not nearly as confident as you that Hanna will be a killer for the U.S.

 

[Marc Austin]

Wouldn't that be round 3 for Gustav? And I'm not nearly as confident as you that Hanna will be a killer for the U.S.

Well, let's count them out:

1st landfall: Haiti with 70 dead so far
2nd landfall: Jamaica
3rd landfall: most likely western Cuba assuming no drastic change in path
4th landfall: northern GoM

So actually, it appears it will be it's 4th landfall when it makes it to the U.S.

And as for Hanna, well I agree with you in the sense that there's no way to determine if Hanna will strike the U.S., but even as a tropical storm, it has the potential to take lives. Look at Fay, never became a hurricane, but still proved to be deadly.

If Gustav strikes near New Orleans, I can't imagine anyone wanting to live there again. I also don't like the idea of revisiting the evacuation hell that ensued near Houston as Rita approached.

I must agree with Warren, I'm still not entirely sold on the current forecast path, even though most of the models show a general trend towards central/western LA/east TX, this storm is most likely to go through several eyewall replacement cycles and subsequent wobbles that could entirely change it's path east or west. It certainly seems to be pulling a rapid intensification at present and is looking beautiful on vis satellite.

 

[B Ozanne]

You forgot the Cayman Islands.

It looks like the coc will now pass east of the Isle of Youth and possibly traverse Cuba at its narrowest point. Cuba is actually well known to suffer few casualties from hurricanes. They have an efficient and truly mandatory evacuation system.

Front page of nola.com says in bold letters: "Gustav will hit west of Houma"
That is nuts. The NHC sees equal chances of it hitting anywhere between Galveston, TX and the AL/MS border.

 

[Chris Hayes]

Gustav is now a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of 145mph. One heckuva bounce from yesterday when it was tropical storm turned minimal hurricane

 

[Shane Adams]

Gustav is now a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of 145mph. One heckuva bounce from yesterday when it was tropical storm turned minimal hurricane

Where are you getting this information? I went to NHC right after reading this and they've still got it at 125mph from the 11am EDT update. Am I missing something (again)?

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

12z GHM model forecast landfall


12z HWRF model forecast landfall


Boy, those two are now in really good agreement on landfall. Seems like the HWRF has been stuck on that location for the majority of its runs, including 126 hours out.

 

[Connor McCrorey]

Shane, they issued an update recently.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/301718.shtml

 

[B Ozanne]

Where are you getting this information? I went to NHC right after reading this and they've still got it at 125mph from the 11am EDT update. Am I missing something (again)?

Intermediate update at 1:20pm EDT, just a short note they put out. I'd tell you where it is but its probably gone by now.

 

[Chris Hayes]

12z GHM model forecast landfall


12z HWRF model forecast landfall


Boy, those two are now in really good agreement on landfall. Seems like the HWRF has been stuck on that location for the majority of its runs, including 126 hours out.

Yeah, most of the models do seem to be pointing at a Sw/Sc LA landfall. Not many large towns down there, but if landfall was at 912 or 924mb, god forbid, I wonder how big of a storm surge that would send up towards New Orleans?

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

These are current as of 1pm CDT on Saturday. I mirrored them on my website so they load faster.

Fresh from the Terra satellite:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/...efl1_143.A2008243160001-2008243160501.1km.jpg