07L: Hurricane Gustav

[Joshua T. Clark]

What is everyone's thoughts on this. The 00Z model guidance odjective aid package is on the street and it appears that all of the models a beginning to come together and direct Gustav to a potential landfall on either side of the TX/LA border. From what I see with this model package there seems to be an overall agreement between the models on a forecast track for Gustav.

 

[Chris Hayes]

I've seen a general tred to the west more and moe with the models. It appears NO could be spared which is a good thing. Good to see there arent huge population centers in the general area of where the models are pointing at. HOWEVER, any further west and Houston is in danger. Houston has a MUCH higher population than the New Orleans region, not to mention there are a lot of refineries, pipelines, etc in Houston along the Houston Ship Channel Stay away from that area!

 

[Jared Farrer]

I am curious what you veterens lean towards when it comes to model guidence? I am use to using things like the NAM and GFS for severe weather. Which models are more appropriate for forecasting track, strength, etc.

 

[al pietrycha]

For those looking for a high spatial res of sfc obs, I have opened my hrcn sfc plot to the public. Unfortunately, come 9 am MDT tomorrow I'll be away until Monday before I can narrow in the map along the Gulf coast with sfc obs and radar reflectivity; tomorrow before I leave I'll take my best guess at landfall and adjust the map should Gustav come in before midday Mon. That written, here is what is running tonight...

http://stormeyes.org/maps/sfchrcn.gif

Note, map updates at :12 and :25 after each hour.

-Al

P.S. If you find something like this fun/useful/helpful I'd like to hear about it for future use.

 

[James Conrad]

http://tropicalatlantic.com/plots/07-googlemaps.shtml I think has the best spaghetti plots because you can toggle over google maps. past and future tracks.. thats my $02

 

[rdale]

There is no "one model" for forecasting... If there was - we wouldn't have all these questions, nor would we need experts at NHC. Models are just one part of the forecasting process. Note the link I posted in the educational section if you want to learn more.

 

[Ryan Orlando]

If anyone wants a different picture of where Gustav goes then go here:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

 

[B Ozanne]

I am curious what you veterens lean towards when it comes to model guidence? I am use to using things like the NAM and GFS for severe weather. Which models are more appropriate for forecasting track, strength, etc.

I'm not sure they lean towards any one particular model for every storm. If anybody starts pinpointing landfall and strength four days out they are just guessing, and if they get it right they are just lucky. Of course people get lucky all the time. I'd challenge anybody to beat the forecast cone of the NHC at 4-5 days, verify it, then do it again and again.

 

[rdale]

NHC would help their cause if they gave out a forecast cone instead of drawing a line then a cone around it...

 

[rdale]

If anyone wants a different picture of where Gustav goes then go here:

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pa...0388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL

That's not a different forecast - those are just computer model output as we've mentioned above.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Unless the projected path and time frame changes, I'm likely not heading out. I'm not a big fan of that area and a nighttime show is even worse. That is not to say it won't be exciting in some areas, or things could change. Everyone be safe, and remember the most dangerous things are not always the storm.

The season is still young.

W.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Current probabilities of interest (as image, since text gets munged):



I'm really hoping this takes a left turn; I'm not thrilled by the prospect of a NOLA strike again, as I have family going to college there. It's interesting that the NHC remains on the eastern edge of their model runs; I wonder if this is for continuity or because they feel the models are overplaying the ridge.

 

[MClarkson]

Well its starting to look pretty good on IR sat, the eye is coming out. Here we go! RI time! Next plane makes its first eye pass shortly.


Keep in mind that with the low angle of approach to the coast like this... the strong right side will rake the coast for an extended distance on the northeast side... while to the left of the final landfall location will experience even weaker conditions than normal left side bias. This is also a direction that aims surge at NO/lake p. pretty well... although it may stay far enough offshore to avoid a direct hit.

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

UPDATE TO 2AM EDT ADVISORY (210AM EDT)
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAX WINDS NEAR 100MPH
MAKING GUSTAV CAT 2 HURRICANE

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/300609.shtml

 

[Mark Farnik]

It appears Gustav may be in the beginning stages of a rapid intensification process, given the latest findings from the hurricane hunters and seeing as the cloud tops in around the eye are cooling rapidly on the infrared satellite image. If this trend continues, it wouldn't be surprising if Gustav breaches Cat 3 status in 6-12 hours and could potentially be nearing Cat 4 by this time tomorrow as he approaches the far western provinces of Cuba. Once he's past Cuba, it's entirely within the realm of possibility he could pull a Katrina type intensifcation as he moves out over the Loop Current.
Two other interesting things I noticed while scrutinizing the infrared satellite loop - Gustav's windfield is beginning to expand very quickly, particularly on the north and east side of the storm, and if my eyes aren't decieving me, Gustav might have made a very slight, almost imperceptible wobble just to the right of his primary northwesterly motion.