Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
i wonder if this is only round one, as the front is way west yet and the sun is out behind this line. Already back in the mid 80s with points around 70 on the west side of the state.
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Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
Starting to see small scale bows running NE along the line of storms, those will likely produce the strongest wind gusts.
Also, many reports of damage in the northern lower already.tom hanlon
EF2
Mesoscale discussion by SPC regarding the two warned areas in MI/IN mentions activity firing up behind the squall line.
What do you guys think about some "second chance" storms happening behind the line ? My experience is that these can be good if the main line comes through early enough and if there is enough heating. Plenty of moisture in place to get the cloud bases low. Low LCL can lead to surprising activity. What would just be funnels end up touching down.
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tom hanlon
Robert Dewey
EF5
I sure hope this line flares up in intensity. I don't think the chances of things developing directly behind the line are all that good - in fact, looking at the VIS satellite, there is quite a bit of subsidence.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Storms look like they are bowing out, at least between LAN to BTL, but I would like to see reflectivies alot higher than what they are. This 45-50DBz's isn't cutting it :lol:Jeremy Lemanski
EF3
well, here is a preview of what is to come for you guys. Storms are for the most part done now. I had a wind gust to a whopping :roll: 35-40mph with heavy rain and some lightning, and i say SOME, not a whole lot for the amount of energy there was.tom hanlon
EF2
Fun line to watch and practice the endlessly dificult art of predicting the most active part of a line.
I like the line in IN much more than MI. Airmchair chasing but if I could be there, although I would not hope for all that much I like the section of the line about three counties down in IN. The northern piece just swallowed a cell in front of the line and it looks like it will do the same three counties South of MI. Nice sharp break there expect some bowing as it moves East. Satellite imagery shows this as less of a line and more of a series of discrete cells.
If I could I would target a point 40 miles west of the centerpoint of a line drawn between FT wayne and Angola IN.
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Tom Hanlon
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Wouldnt say a waste of a "good day" We expected linear, and thats just what we got. I actually headed out as well, around central Illinois. Didnt get much more than a gross black shelf cloud, a little lightning and heavy rains. Was more of just a joy ride out away from town instead of sitting around watching it at the computer. Might as well get out for the day, right? Even if its not to chase tornadic supercells.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I never really looked at MI's set up as obviously, there was no reason for me to give a crap. But, I know the winds really sucked it up here, so chances were that things wouldnt be very organized, and wouldnt last terribly long. Sure enough, a nice line blew up, but it puffed out an OFB and destroyed the entire thing.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Wish that was the case for me...but I'm stuck living in the chaser trap known as Illinois for at least 2 years. At least I should actually have free time next May and will be able to actually, leave. I'm just ready to flip the calender on to a new year and just get this crap over with.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
I finally was able to branch away from local chasing the last couple years, and then this year finally got my own car set up for chasing and was able to leave on my own...but had probably my two busiest months ever during May and June...so I wasnt able to leave the state for any of the plains set ups. Was frustrating to sit here with nothing, watching all the potential just a couple states over. I guess, if I had to have a May and June where I couldnt chase, this was a good year to have it.
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Certainly not like the past couple years though. Imagine being unable to leave during May 1-10 2003, or the last half of May 2004. I was certainly not happy I couldnt go this year...but if I HAD to watch one from the sidelines, it was a good choice. Eight tornadoes in Illinois this year...compared to 132 in 2003. I know which year I'd rather not chase
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