07/18/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

Well, at this time, things look pretty unsupportive of any isolated, supercellular activity across MI...

However, I could certainly see a bunch of unorganized storms with large hail / damaging winds, given sufficant shear and instability, but the chances for anything tornadic are low, but I am really in the need for some storms - so could go for this stuff :lol:
 
I hear you man. Chances are pretty crappy for anything legit as far as supercells and tornadoes...but some isolated severe storms are certainly possible...and I'm game if that should be the case.
 
I'll have my car ripped apart for a comms gear install, so that means there will be something severe enough that I could have chased.

Keep your ears open for a late-breaking storm that goes severe quickly...looks like that will be the only chance, although the models generally indicate a lazy afternoon of Miller and my recliner :?
 
I have to concur, wind profiles are too weak to support any tornadic or supercelluar activity. Pulse severe looks more likely than anything, maybe a squall line as well.

I'll keep an eye on it just because its a severe weather chance, but I'm not going to be too excited.
 
Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski
I have to concur, wind profiles are too weak to support any tornadic or supercelluar activity. Pulse severe looks more likely than anything, maybe a squall line as well.

I'll keep an eye on it just because its a severe weather chance, but I'm not going to be too excited.

There is way too much shear for true pulse severe weather, which usually occurs when wind fields are <15knts all the way up. Pulse severe thunderstorms are generally "airmass" storms. In this situation, we have pretty strong wind fields, though unidirectional, and exceptional instability. This is in place as a pretty strong front blows through the region, so the result will more than likely be an organized squall line.
 
i think any tornadic threat tomorrow will have to occur with any bow echo comma head that may or may not form. It is unlikely, that there will be any tornadoes tomorrow, but then again it is michigan so you never know what will spin up.

BTW, wasn't 8-21-03 similar to tomorrow? Everything formed a line almost as soon as the storms went up, yet there still was the F-2 in webberville.
 
Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
BTW, wasn't 8-21-03 similar to tomorrow? Everything formed a line almost as soon as the storms went up, yet there still was the F-2 in webberville.

21-Aug-2003 wasn't as unidirectional as tomorrow. That day featured a pretty good risk for tornadoes in the northern half of lower MI, but that never (beyond warnings) happened. Then, a line developed across central MI, a cell broke off the main line, and with wind fields supporting it - it dropped a large tornado near Webberville.

Tomorrow is likely not gonna be like that, we'll have unidirectional winds only supportive of squall lines pretty much. Has anybody read DTXs wording? They really seem to notice tomorrows event in the HWO.
 
Thanks nick, i couldn't remember the setup from the 21st. I know it looked like a huge cap bust at about 5.30pm when the cap broke over saginaw bay and all hell broke loose. Got some nice golf ball sized hail from it.

Yes, dtx. sure is playing up the event, now if only they fix there radar before tomorrow.
 
Thanks Dewey, didn't know that.

GFS brings the front in on Tuesday rather than on Monday, and the NAM is starting to do the usual "weakening before the event" drill. I have to agree with everything else, this is going to be a squall event.

Overall, the damaging wind and hail indicated in the forecast looks more promising than the threat for tornadoes. I think the SPC will give a 2% chance for lower MI (probably more localized to the western end of the state), if at all.

This has all the makings of a mid-summer squall line, something to look at but not something to go after (unless you really want to chase).
 
Todays chances look pretty good, despite the SLGT risk that SPC has. For starters, temps are already in the low 80's, and expected to rise into the low to mid 90's. With the visible loop showing plenty of sunshine, I see no reason why this won't happen. Low level moisture is pooling quite nicely - as a matter of fact, looking at the obs, I see a Td of nearly 80F in west-central lower MI. With widespread T's in the low 90's and Td's in the low/mid 70's, instability should be pretty extreme. Wind fields are pretty strong, with nearly 40-50knts at 500mb and +35knts at 700mb pushing in a bit later.

Still looks like a squall line, and there is already evidence of this in northwest lower MI.
 
the severe thunderstorm watch is already out, mainly a wind threat as was already said.

the only thing i don't like is the timing, the storms are already firing. I would have liked about a 1pm start time, to allow for more heating. with storms going this early, heating maybe limited a slight bit, but not enough to prevent highs near or above 90.

EDIT, and i wish DTX would get there radar working.
 
Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
the severe thunderstorm watch is already out, mainly a wind threat as was already said.

the only thing i don't like is the timing, the storms are already firing. I would have liked about a 1pm start time, to allow for more heating. with storms going this early, heating maybe limited a slight bit, but not enough to prevent highs near or above 90.

EDIT, and i wish DTX would get there radar working.

I think timing is just right, at least for southeast MI. With storms just now beginning to fire, they should probably reach the area around 3PM-5PM west to east, which about the hottest part of the day, maximizing instability.

I'm not sure what is going on with DTX's NEXRAD, but it's been down for close to a week now.
 
For those interested in the DTX radar here is there radar status:


WSR-88D STATUS NOTIFICATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
105 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

THE KDTX WSR-88D IS DOWN DUE TO A TRANSMITTER FAILURE. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND ARE EVALUATING THE REPAIR. AN ESTIMATED
RETURN TO SERVICE IS NOON TODAY.
 
DTX radar is back online.

Squall line coming in from the west, scattered hail echos (some up to an inch) detected. We may get a few isolated spinups, but nothing in the way of tornadic activity. Looks like just another summer squall.
 
i wonder if this is only round one, as the front is way west yet and the sun is out behind this line. Already back in the mid 80s with points around 70 on the west side of the state.
 
Starting to see small scale bows running NE along the line of storms, those will likely produce the strongest wind gusts.

Also, many reports of damage in the northern lower already.
 
Mesoscale discussion by SPC regarding the two warned areas in MI/IN mentions activity firing up behind the squall line.

What do you guys think about some "second chance" storms happening behind the line ? My experience is that these can be good if the main line comes through early enough and if there is enough heating. Plenty of moisture in place to get the cloud bases low. Low LCL can lead to surprising activity. What would just be funnels end up touching down.

--
tom hanlon
 
I sure hope this line flares up in intensity. I don't think the chances of things developing directly behind the line are all that good - in fact, looking at the VIS satellite, there is quite a bit of subsidence.
 
Storms look like they are bowing out, at least between LAN to BTL, but I would like to see reflectivies alot higher than what they are. This 45-50DBz's isn't cutting it :lol:
 
well, here is a preview of what is to come for you guys. Storms are for the most part done now. I had a wind gust to a whopping :roll: 35-40mph with heavy rain and some lightning, and i say SOME, not a whole lot for the amount of energy there was.
 
Fun line to watch and practice the endlessly dificult art of predicting the most active part of a line.

I like the line in IN much more than MI. Airmchair chasing but if I could be there, although I would not hope for all that much I like the section of the line about three counties down in IN. The northern piece just swallowed a cell in front of the line and it looks like it will do the same three counties South of MI. Nice sharp break there expect some bowing as it moves East. Satellite imagery shows this as less of a line and more of a series of discrete cells.

If I could I would target a point 40 miles west of the centerpoint of a line drawn between FT wayne and Angola IN.

--
Tom Hanlon
 
Wouldnt say a waste of a "good day" We expected linear, and thats just what we got. I actually headed out as well, around central Illinois. Didnt get much more than a gross black shelf cloud, a little lightning and heavy rains. Was more of just a joy ride out away from town instead of sitting around watching it at the computer. Might as well get out for the day, right? Even if its not to chase tornadic supercells.
 
I never really looked at MI's set up as obviously, there was no reason for me to give a crap. But, I know the winds really sucked it up here, so chances were that things wouldnt be very organized, and wouldnt last terribly long. Sure enough, a nice line blew up, but it puffed out an OFB and destroyed the entire thing.
 
Wish that was the case for me...but I'm stuck living in the chaser trap known as Illinois for at least 2 years. At least I should actually have free time next May and will be able to actually, leave. I'm just ready to flip the calender on to a new year and just get this crap over with.
 
Back
Top