07/18/05: TALK: GREAT LAKES

[nickgrillo]

Well, at this time, things look pretty unsupportive of any isolated, supercellular activity across MI...

However, I could certainly see a bunch of unorganized storms with large hail / damaging winds, given sufficant shear and instability, but the chances for anything tornadic are low, but I am really in the need for some storms - so could go for this stuff :lol:

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I hear you man. Chances are pretty crappy for anything legit as far as supercells and tornadoes...but some isolated severe storms are certainly possible...and I'm game if that should be the case.

 

[J West]

I'll have my car ripped apart for a comms gear install, so that means there will be something severe enough that I could have chased.

Keep your ears open for a late-breaking storm that goes severe quickly...looks like that will be the only chance, although the models generally indicate a lazy afternoon of Miller and my recliner :?

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

I have to concur, wind profiles are too weak to support any tornadic or supercelluar activity. Pulse severe looks more likely than anything, maybe a squall line as well.

I'll keep an eye on it just because its a severe weather chance, but I'm not going to be too excited.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Aric Cylkowski
I have to concur, wind profiles are too weak to support any tornadic or supercelluar activity. Pulse severe looks more likely than anything, maybe a squall line as well.

I'll keep an eye on it just because its a severe weather chance, but I'm not going to be too excited.

There is way too much shear for true pulse severe weather, which usually occurs when wind fields are <15knts all the way up. Pulse severe thunderstorms are generally "airmass" storms. In this situation, we have pretty strong wind fields, though unidirectional, and exceptional instability. This is in place as a pretty strong front blows through the region, so the result will more than likely be an organized squall line.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

i think any tornadic threat tomorrow will have to occur with any bow echo comma head that may or may not form. It is unlikely, that there will be any tornadoes tomorrow, but then again it is michigan so you never know what will spin up.

BTW, wasn't 8-21-03 similar to tomorrow? Everything formed a line almost as soon as the storms went up, yet there still was the F-2 in webberville.

 

[nickgrillo]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
BTW, wasn't 8-21-03 similar to tomorrow? Everything formed a line almost as soon as the storms went up, yet there still was the F-2 in webberville.

21-Aug-2003 wasn't as unidirectional as tomorrow. That day featured a pretty good risk for tornadoes in the northern half of lower MI, but that never (beyond warnings) happened. Then, a line developed across central MI, a cell broke off the main line, and with wind fields supporting it - it dropped a large tornado near Webberville.

Tomorrow is likely not gonna be like that, we'll have unidirectional winds only supportive of squall lines pretty much. Has anybody read DTXs wording? They really seem to notice tomorrows event in the HWO.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Thanks nick, i couldn't remember the setup from the 21st. I know it looked like a huge cap bust at about 5.30pm when the cap broke over saginaw bay and all hell broke loose. Got some nice golf ball sized hail from it.

Yes, dtx. sure is playing up the event, now if only they fix there radar before tomorrow.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

Thanks Dewey, didn't know that.

GFS brings the front in on Tuesday rather than on Monday, and the NAM is starting to do the usual "weakening before the event" drill. I have to agree with everything else, this is going to be a squall event.

Overall, the damaging wind and hail indicated in the forecast looks more promising than the threat for tornadoes. I think the SPC will give a 2% chance for lower MI (probably more localized to the western end of the state), if at all.

This has all the makings of a mid-summer squall line, something to look at but not something to go after (unless you really want to chase).

 

[Robert Dewey]

Todays chances look pretty good, despite the SLGT risk that SPC has. For starters, temps are already in the low 80's, and expected to rise into the low to mid 90's. With the visible loop showing plenty of sunshine, I see no reason why this won't happen. Low level moisture is pooling quite nicely - as a matter of fact, looking at the obs, I see a Td of nearly 80F in west-central lower MI. With widespread T's in the low 90's and Td's in the low/mid 70's, instability should be pretty extreme. Wind fields are pretty strong, with nearly 40-50knts at 500mb and +35knts at 700mb pushing in a bit later.

Still looks like a squall line, and there is already evidence of this in northwest lower MI.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

the severe thunderstorm watch is already out, mainly a wind threat as was already said.

the only thing i don't like is the timing, the storms are already firing. I would have liked about a 1pm start time, to allow for more heating. with storms going this early, heating maybe limited a slight bit, but not enough to prevent highs near or above 90.

EDIT, and i wish DTX would get there radar working.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Originally posted by Jeremy Lemanski
the severe thunderstorm watch is already out, mainly a wind threat as was already said.

the only thing i don't like is the timing, the storms are already firing. I would have liked about a 1pm start time, to allow for more heating. with storms going this early, heating maybe limited a slight bit, but not enough to prevent highs near or above 90.

EDIT, and i wish DTX would get there radar working.

I think timing is just right, at least for southeast MI. With storms just now beginning to fire, they should probably reach the area around 3PM-5PM west to east, which about the hottest part of the day, maximizing instability.

I'm not sure what is going on with DTX's NEXRAD, but it's been down for close to a week now.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

Originally posted by rdewey

I'm not sure what is going on with DTX's NEXRAD, but it's been down for close to a week now.

it worked for two hours last night, then went down again. :cry: :cry:

 

[Jayson Prentice]

For those interested in the DTX radar here is there radar status:


WSR-88D STATUS NOTIFICATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
105 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005

THE KDTX WSR-88D IS DOWN DUE TO A TRANSMITTER FAILURE. TECHNICIANS
HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED AND ARE EVALUATING THE REPAIR. AN ESTIMATED
RETURN TO SERVICE IS NOON TODAY.

 

[Aric Cylkowski]

DTX radar is back online.

Squall line coming in from the west, scattered hail echos (some up to an inch) detected. We may get a few isolated spinups, but nothing in the way of tornadic activity. Looks like just another summer squall.