06/13/05 TALK: Midwest through Oklahoma

[Mike Peregrine]

Don't have time to work on a forecast, so we'll start with TALK ... looks like this system is digging in and slowing a bit, giving rise to some possibilities tomorrow across Missouri/Iowa and into Illinois. Let's talk about it when/if we get a chance today ...

(edit - after I posted, realized someone had already started a FCST thread ... thanks)

 

[Alex Lamers]

I am becoming concerned about an area from East-Central and East Iowa into Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Missouri east into adjacent portions of Wisconsin and Illinois. Looks like initial supercells with potential for a squall line evolving with time. Given MLJ building in behind evolving squall line...wouldn't be surprised to see some bowing segments and wind damage swaths to near Lake Michigan by 03/04Z. Best tornado threat looks to be along or just west of Mississippi River.

EDIT: almost forgot, I threw out the NAM since it changes its mind every model run. UKMET/GFS have been remarkably consistent. 4km high res WRF places the region I mentioned in a relative void of cloud cover in the morning so I expect rapid destabilization and convection patterns closer to what GFS is indicating.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I think another good area will be just along the low pressure system which is forecasted to slow/stall out over southwestern MN. But, those storms will have to likely be the first isolated ones before they group together...

I'm seeing what I can do for chasing... Would like to have a partner, anybody interested?? :wink:

 

[Robbie Cox]

I think another good area will be just along the low pressure system which is forecasted to slow/stall out over southwestern MN. But, those storms will have to likely be the first isolated ones before they group together...

I'm seeing what I can do for chasing... Would like to have a partner, anybody interested?? :wink:

depnding on your target for monday and timeframe I might be up to a chase. I work to 2-3pm out of carroll and will back on fourth between carroll and story city from 5am till Millertime.
I thinking though it will stay east and north along a area of Lamoni Ia. to dubuque Ia. or slightly north of DUQ up thru wisconsin(they will need there daily waterspout) :lol: .
that's just a Noob's guess

. what do i know i'm just a Asst Fire Chief.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

This is just a tough forecast to make right now. So much of it depends on the overnite mcs, and where its located, and how soon it gets out of the area. Im scheduled to work tomorrow nite...but if I pulled a few strings I may be able to get out of it. However with this being so iffy right now, I'm reluctant to start moving other people around. The SPC's confidence with the 25% hatched makes me lean towards getting the day off. But the latest model runs tell me to stay put.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Well...the strings have been pulled, and I'm free to chase tomorrow. The situation is stilly iffy, depending on the course and speed of the mcs developing now in the plains.

Attm, I would say western Iowa is the best place to be. However, that's going to depend on the amount of recovery that area can see after the precipitation moves out. If enough insolation occurs, and things can heat up there, it could be a good show.

There is a second area of interest however, further south into Missouri and Illinois with the mcs. With sufficient heating ahead of the thunderstorms, reintensification is likely, and this could include some supercells and tornadoes. A couple negatives in this area is the poor terrain and road networks down there...as well as the possibility that this could end up just being embedded supercells. I dont care how many tornadoes come out of that cluster if you're not even going to be able to see any.

This is basically going to be a gametime decision. I'll wait on tonites run, and the situation tomorrow morning to determine which area I hit up. But as it stands now, the two areas of concern appear to be western Iowa, and then Missouri and SW Illinois.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

South into Missouri???? Are you kidding?
Missouri is a chaser's death trap. Let's hope all the good stuff stays in Iowa. SW Iowa has the same hills as Missouri, but straight roads that are in nice grids.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

South into Missouri???? Are you kidding?
Missouri is a chaser's death trap. Let's hope all the good stuff stays in Iowa. SW Iowa has the same hills as Missouri, but straight roads that are in nice grids.

Well, thats why I said I didnt like that area for its poor terrain.

Either way...the 18z run recovers the airmass over Iowa much better...so a venture into Missouri shouldnt be needed. Even so...you can put a high risk over central MO, and I wont go.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Yeah... I figured that out the hard way....
Last high risk in Missouri I was sucked into going by the lure of tornadoes. No other way to describe it other than... bad.

 

[Joel Wright]

Considering there's a lot of ongoing convection in the risk area, this may be a bit premature, but oh well.

Just based on models and assuming things recover from previous convection, I would target the Fort Dodge IA area at first guess. Tomorrow morning may reveal something completely different, but for now that's basically my first stab.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I think a lot is still up in the air, I would aim further west then FOD... I'm hoping that since this should be right here in my backyard I shouldn't be making to far of a trip..

Awaiting tonights model runs before I make a final decision like many of you...

 

[John Farley]

If this evening's NAM verifies, I might not have far to go at all from the STL area. CAPE and helicity look good along a line from COU roughly through the STL area into southwest IL, with a couple spots with EHI predicted between 4 and 5. I can probably get away from work around 2, so a relatively short chase would be nice - maybe I'll finally get a chance to chase some decent storms in Illinois.

On the downside, if this verifies, the STL and COU metro areas could be in for some nasty weather tomorrow.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Thinking Nebraska City towards Des Moines. Not excited about the day, but a shorter chase will be nice.

 

[Matthew Havin]

For anyone still up...... SPC looks to issue a MOD risk today for E IA, N-Central IL, SW WI, SE MN, and NE MO per MD 1324.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1324.html

 

[Anthony Silver]

Yeah, I just noticed that. Depending on what evolves out there today, I might head towards Kirksville this afternoon. I'm about ready to get off a night shift, so I need to sleep first. I will re evaluate everything around 11 AM and will go from there. Setup looks good depending on what this AM convection decides to do.[/quote]