06/13/05 TALK: Midwest through Oklahoma

Don't have time to work on a forecast, so we'll start with TALK ... looks like this system is digging in and slowing a bit, giving rise to some possibilities tomorrow across Missouri/Iowa and into Illinois. Let's talk about it when/if we get a chance today ...

(edit - after I posted, realized someone had already started a FCST thread ... thanks)
 
I am becoming concerned about an area from East-Central and East Iowa into Southeast Minnesota and Northeast Missouri east into adjacent portions of Wisconsin and Illinois. Looks like initial supercells with potential for a squall line evolving with time. Given MLJ building in behind evolving squall line...wouldn't be surprised to see some bowing segments and wind damage swaths to near Lake Michigan by 03/04Z. Best tornado threat looks to be along or just west of Mississippi River.

EDIT: almost forgot, I threw out the NAM since it changes its mind every model run. UKMET/GFS have been remarkably consistent. 4km high res WRF places the region I mentioned in a relative void of cloud cover in the morning so I expect rapid destabilization and convection patterns closer to what GFS is indicating.

...Alex Lamers...
 
I think another good area will be just along the low pressure system which is forecasted to slow/stall out over southwestern MN. But, those storms will have to likely be the first isolated ones before they group together...

I'm seeing what I can do for chasing... Would like to have a partner, anybody interested?? :wink:
 
I think another good area will be just along the low pressure system which is forecasted to slow/stall out over southwestern MN. But, those storms will have to likely be the first isolated ones before they group together...

I'm seeing what I can do for chasing... Would like to have a partner, anybody interested?? :wink:

depnding on your target for monday and timeframe I might be up to a chase. I work to 2-3pm out of carroll and will back on fourth between carroll and story city from 5am till Millertime. :D
I thinking though it will stay east and north along a area of Lamoni Ia. to dubuque Ia. or slightly north of DUQ up thru wisconsin(they will need there daily waterspout) :lol: .
that's just a Noob's guess
baby.gif
. what do i know i'm just a Asst Fire Chief.
cop.gif
 
This is just a tough forecast to make right now. So much of it depends on the overnite mcs, and where its located, and how soon it gets out of the area. Im scheduled to work tomorrow nite...but if I pulled a few strings I may be able to get out of it. However with this being so iffy right now, I'm reluctant to start moving other people around. The SPC's confidence with the 25% hatched makes me lean towards getting the day off. But the latest model runs tell me to stay put.
 
Well...the strings have been pulled, and I'm free to chase tomorrow. The situation is stilly iffy, depending on the course and speed of the mcs developing now in the plains.

Attm, I would say western Iowa is the best place to be. However, that's going to depend on the amount of recovery that area can see after the precipitation moves out. If enough insolation occurs, and things can heat up there, it could be a good show.

There is a second area of interest however, further south into Missouri and Illinois with the mcs. With sufficient heating ahead of the thunderstorms, reintensification is likely, and this could include some supercells and tornadoes. A couple negatives in this area is the poor terrain and road networks down there...as well as the possibility that this could end up just being embedded supercells. I dont care how many tornadoes come out of that cluster if you're not even going to be able to see any.

This is basically going to be a gametime decision. I'll wait on tonites run, and the situation tomorrow morning to determine which area I hit up. But as it stands now, the two areas of concern appear to be western Iowa, and then Missouri and SW Illinois.
 
South into Missouri???? Are you kidding?
Missouri is a chaser's death trap. Let's hope all the good stuff stays in Iowa. SW Iowa has the same hills as Missouri, but straight roads that are in nice grids.
 
South into Missouri???? Are you kidding?
Missouri is a chaser's death trap. Let's hope all the good stuff stays in Iowa. SW Iowa has the same hills as Missouri, but straight roads that are in nice grids.

Well, thats why I said I didnt like that area for its poor terrain.

Either way...the 18z run recovers the airmass over Iowa much better...so a venture into Missouri shouldnt be needed. Even so...you can put a high risk over central MO, and I wont go.
 
Yeah... I figured that out the hard way....
Last high risk in Missouri I was sucked into going by the lure of tornadoes. No other way to describe it other than... bad.
 
Considering there's a lot of ongoing convection in the risk area, this may be a bit premature, but oh well.

Just based on models and assuming things recover from previous convection, I would target the Fort Dodge IA area at first guess. Tomorrow morning may reveal something completely different, but for now that's basically my first stab.
 
I think a lot is still up in the air, I would aim further west then FOD... I'm hoping that since this should be right here in my backyard I shouldn't be making to far of a trip.. ;)

Awaiting tonights model runs before I make a final decision like many of you...
 
If this evening's NAM verifies, I might not have far to go at all from the STL area. CAPE and helicity look good along a line from COU roughly through the STL area into southwest IL, with a couple spots with EHI predicted between 4 and 5. I can probably get away from work around 2, so a relatively short chase would be nice - maybe I'll finally get a chance to chase some decent storms in Illinois.

On the downside, if this verifies, the STL and COU metro areas could be in for some nasty weather tomorrow.
 
Thinking Nebraska City towards Des Moines. Not excited about the day, but a shorter chase will be nice.
 
Yeah, I just noticed that. Depending on what evolves out there today, I might head towards Kirksville this afternoon. I'm about ready to get off a night shift, so I need to sleep first. I will re evaluate everything around 11 AM and will go from there. Setup looks good depending on what this AM convection decides to do.[/quote]
 
I think a good starting point for a chase will be in central iowa. Nice mix of instability and shear and proximity to the low. Probably Fort Dodge to Creston will be the initiation point. Storms will track eastward from there and intensify, depending on how much sunshine is received today.
I am almost for sure that I will be chasing today.
 
Im thinking somewhere near Des Moines for a starting point. I've liked the area near the Iowa / Missouri border for the last few runs...and it hasnt changed much right now. Basically the entire eastern half of Iowa looks primed...but, I especially like the SE part of the state. Sooo, I'll just I-80 towards Des Moines, and rework things once im in that area.
 
Im night shift here will be getting some sleep soom & get up round 4ish. Wife gets in about 5:15 then we will be ready. but have to be back at work around 10 tonight. Ya know night time chases here are plentiful. We are initially targeting randolph county att. But St. Claire Co. looks real good right now. Just depends on initiation timing I guess.definantly could see a few strong naders in that area judging by EHI. Lots a sunlight here in Marion right now with little chance of clouds from ongoing line moving out of Cent MO. FYI if chasing MO, the ONLY way to go is SEMO area . Very flat, our favorite chase territory.
Happy hunting
Kevin
 
The Fort Dodge IA area still looks pretty good to me.

Most of Iowa is receiving full insolation already, so the early morning convection left the state fairly unscathed. I'm kind of wondering about the LCL heights this afternoon. I would like to see some higher Td's in a situation like this.

I am back on nights this month, so I won't be able to go out unfortunately. Good luck to anyone who ventures out today! 8)
 
The Fort Dodge IA area still looks pretty good to me.

Most of Iowa is receiving full insolation already, so the early morning convection left the state fairly unscathed. I'm kind of wondering about the LCL heights this afternoon. I would like to see some higher Td's in a situation like this.

I am back on nights this month, so I won't be able to go out unfortunately. Good luck to anyone who ventures out today! 8)

According to the NAM and RUC both, TDs progs are near 70 across the eastern half of IA, back into MO.

SFC analysis already shows mid 60s Tds in the area, with SE SFC winds at many sites.

In our area, I don't see LCL levels being a problem.
 
Leaving for Des Moines now, will reevalulate situation once I head to the area. With best shear in Iowa east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 80, it sounds like a good target as of this moment, latest satellite shows clearing in all of S Iowa, so that is a good sign.
 
I will most likely be playing in northwest Iowa today, if anybody is interested in teaming let me know. I'll most likely start out here in Spencer, IA and then move from there...

Cloud cover already breaking apart just to my south... May turn out better then expected across here.
 
Looking over the situation this morning. Rather disgusted to see that SPC went with an upgrade to the outlook without even waiting for morning soundings to come in. Early outlooks always make me supicious. And, after looking at soundings in/around the area, not caring much for what I see. General consensus is thin surface moisture - which makes me think mixing out badly early, perhaps across most of IA - with veering winds at the surface across a broad area. Surface boundary with healthy backed winds is from ~FSD -MSP, but upstairs the winds are pretty sad and uniformly from the south making this boundary a questionable target unless you hug the surface low. South of this area - few targets are obvious. RUC and ETA runs have consistently developed a small region of backed surface winds/enhanced helicity over western IL area, perhaps associated with persistent upper level divergence noted in the model forecast. But - both seem to be missing the current convective trends across MO this morning - so tough to rely on this coming together. That said - morning activity may indeed lay out a boundary to work with - if morning convection were to die off soon enough to allow for some recovery - but is persisting rather nicely right now - and water vapor showing strong subsidence in the wake of this feature. Will have to ponder this a bit more to decide what my plans arer for today.

Glen
 
i won't be out chasing today, but the storms may be chasing me. i'll be watching 3 kids, along with the weather. i'm a little under the weather myself, but if anything comes around here, i'll be out in the yard with the camera.

too bad i can't be out chasing, since i know the roads pretty well, but there's just no way it can be done.

good luck to all out chasing, and i just hope my house and my mom's house aren't in harm's way today.
 
Back
Top