06/13/05 TALK: Midwest through Oklahoma

[Scott Lincoln]

I think a good starting point for a chase will be in central iowa. Nice mix of instability and shear and proximity to the low. Probably Fort Dodge to Creston will be the initiation point. Storms will track eastward from there and intensify, depending on how much sunshine is received today.
I am almost for sure that I will be chasing today.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Im thinking somewhere near Des Moines for a starting point. I've liked the area near the Iowa / Missouri border for the last few runs...and it hasnt changed much right now. Basically the entire eastern half of Iowa looks primed...but, I especially like the SE part of the state. Sooo, I'll just I-80 towards Des Moines, and rework things once im in that area.

 

[Kevin Askew]

Im night shift here will be getting some sleep soom & get up round 4ish. Wife gets in about 5:15 then we will be ready. but have to be back at work around 10 tonight. Ya know night time chases here are plentiful. We are initially targeting randolph county att. But St. Claire Co. looks real good right now. Just depends on initiation timing I guess.definantly could see a few strong naders in that area judging by EHI. Lots a sunlight here in Marion right now with little chance of clouds from ongoing line moving out of Cent MO. FYI if chasing MO, the ONLY way to go is SEMO area . Very flat, our favorite chase territory.
Happy hunting
Kevin

 

[Joel Wright]

The Fort Dodge IA area still looks pretty good to me.

Most of Iowa is receiving full insolation already, so the early morning convection left the state fairly unscathed. I'm kind of wondering about the LCL heights this afternoon. I would like to see some higher Td's in a situation like this.

I am back on nights this month, so I won't be able to go out unfortunately. Good luck to anyone who ventures out today! 8)

 

[Colin Davis]

The Fort Dodge IA area still looks pretty good to me.

Most of Iowa is receiving full insolation already, so the early morning convection left the state fairly unscathed. I'm kind of wondering about the LCL heights this afternoon. I would like to see some higher Td's in a situation like this.

I am back on nights this month, so I won't be able to go out unfortunately. Good luck to anyone who ventures out today! 8)

According to the NAM and RUC both, TDs progs are near 70 across the eastern half of IA, back into MO.

SFC analysis already shows mid 60s Tds in the area, with SE SFC winds at many sites.

In our area, I don't see LCL levels being a problem.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Leaving for Des Moines now, will reevalulate situation once I head to the area. With best shear in Iowa east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 80, it sounds like a good target as of this moment, latest satellite shows clearing in all of S Iowa, so that is a good sign.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

I will most likely be playing in northwest Iowa today, if anybody is interested in teaming let me know. I'll most likely start out here in Spencer, IA and then move from there...

Cloud cover already breaking apart just to my south... May turn out better then expected across here.

 

[Glen Romine]

Looking over the situation this morning. Rather disgusted to see that SPC went with an upgrade to the outlook without even waiting for morning soundings to come in. Early outlooks always make me supicious. And, after looking at soundings in/around the area, not caring much for what I see. General consensus is thin surface moisture - which makes me think mixing out badly early, perhaps across most of IA - with veering winds at the surface across a broad area. Surface boundary with healthy backed winds is from ~FSD -MSP, but upstairs the winds are pretty sad and uniformly from the south making this boundary a questionable target unless you hug the surface low. South of this area - few targets are obvious. RUC and ETA runs have consistently developed a small region of backed surface winds/enhanced helicity over western IL area, perhaps associated with persistent upper level divergence noted in the model forecast. But - both seem to be missing the current convective trends across MO this morning - so tough to rely on this coming together. That said - morning activity may indeed lay out a boundary to work with - if morning convection were to die off soon enough to allow for some recovery - but is persisting rather nicely right now - and water vapor showing strong subsidence in the wake of this feature. Will have to ponder this a bit more to decide what my plans arer for today.

Glen

 

[Carla Bisby]

I'm heading for the MO/IA border area right now. If anyone wants to be a nowcaster today I could use it (PM me).

 

[Angie K Holliday]

i won't be out chasing today, but the storms may be chasing me. i'll be watching 3 kids, along with the weather. i'm a little under the weather myself, but if anything comes around here, i'll be out in the yard with the camera.

too bad i can't be out chasing, since i know the roads pretty well, but there's just no way it can be done.

good luck to all out chasing, and i just hope my house and my mom's house aren't in harm's way today.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

As long as we can get some moisture, I'll be targetting NW iowa. Better moisture to the east, more backed winds to the north. Maybe trying to intercept storms that are near Waterloo?

 

[Mike Johnston]

Share some of Glen's concerns w/ this stacked low setup today. However, like the depth of surface low and still think there could be some nice deep layer shear, as well as low-level helicity, developing out ahead later this afternoon. Ongoing convection over N central MO appears to be weaking as of this hour, and satellite shows good clear slot behind over central KS, NW MO, and much of IA.

I'll be staying home today, but if anyone needs nowcasting help, just PM me. Good luck to everyone chasing today!

 

[Bill Schintler]

Chase target for today, June 13

Chase target:
20 mi west of Centerville, IA (Appanoose CO.).

Timing:
Storm initiation 3 PM CDT.

Storm type and intensity:
Supercell storms capable of winds to 70mph. There is also a small tornado threat.

Discussion:
Potent shortwave will round base of negatively-tilted upper trough/low lifting NEWRD through NE this afternoon. At the surface, a pressure trough/wind shift line will develop along I-35 by 21Z. This feature will serve as the focus for thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Ample instability with MLCAPE’s to 2500J/kg coupled with very high 0-6km shear to 60kts will support storm organization with supercells. Tornado threat may be minimized with anticipated straight hodographs, however if winds in the lower levels back more then predicted by models, very large SRH values will result, potentially enhancing tornado threat. Hail threat should be minimal given relatively high WBZ values around 10,000 ft.

- bill

 

[Joel Wright]

It sure seems like it's slow to warm up today in the warm sector. 11am local time temps in the low and mid 70's? CAPE is rather minimal as well. I realize it's still pretty early but I would have expected things to be heating up considerably more by this time.

On the positive side though, a nice cumulus field has already developed across much of IA.

 

[Craig Maire II]

wow

Watching and waiting right now, the sun has come out and there's plenty of talk about tornados on the local TV and NWS stations, I live in CedarFalls Iowa and am ready to chase/spot today.