06/13/05 TALK: Midwest through Oklahoma

[Joel Wright]

The SW/NE oriented band of convection across MO didn't help matters much either. A large cool pool in central MO from the morning convection focused the strongest storms of the day down in southern and eastern MO, where the CAPE was by far the best. Td's were well into the 70's down there. Mid 60 degree dewpoints in IA in mid June usually won't cut it for any kind of decent surface based storm.

850/500mb winds seemed to back more than what was expected too, but this was only part of the failing setup. If the speed max would have rounded the base of the trough about six hours earlier, and with a little better low level juice, then I think it could have been a pretty decent outbreak....

 

[Mike Peregrine]

The SW/NE oriented band of convection across MO didn't help matters much either. A large cool pool in central MO from the morning convection focused the strongest storms of the day down in southern and eastern MO, where the CAPE was by far the best. Td's were well into the 70's down there.

This was my thinking on last night exactly ...

I did chase a storm that tried its best to get started east out of St. Joseph up toward Jamesport. It developed a clear RFB and even showed signs of rotation with a high wall cloud. The helicity was there, but that was it. Reduced instability meant that the storm could not develop a healthy, sustained updraft, and lack of quality, deep moisture did not help. My guess is that southern Missouri was stealing the show -