05/21/05: TALK: KS/NE/IA

[JHadorn]

Supercell composite is 36, Craven parameter of 90 over Marysville KS. I don't think I've ever seen those index values so high. Some converging boundaries are showing up on radar in the vicinity of Schuyler-North Bend-Fremont NE. Setup has so much potential, if only something can go.

That's my fear for today: an unbelievable setup that craps out. I had expected the cap to be strong today, but I wasn't prepared for it to be this strong. It's just phenominal that nothing has popped yet.

 

[Alex Lamers]

K first...the link to my graphic updated as of 2341Z.

http://alex.wiscwx.com/mesoanal.PNG

Current storms appear to be suffering from developing in excessively dry low-level ams corridor. Dewpoint depressions here are on the order of 30-35º F and the lack of richer deep moisture is preventing the storms from erupting. However, as you can see per the graphic, the storms will be approaching very rich thetae/dewpoint axis that has EHI values in the 0-3km layer peaking at 10 m2/s2 and MLCAPE values exceeding 2500 j/kg and peaking at nearly 3700 j/kg. Therefore, prind that rapid intensification could occur between 0100Z and 0215Z in NE KS. Parameters favor some strong to violent tornadoes...will be interesting to see if this evolves that way.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[nickgrillo]

Alex, I'm pretty sure your graphics are created with GEMPAK, are they?

 

[Alex Lamers]

Haha I wish. I was gonna pay Rob Dale to setup a computer with GEMPAK like was advertised in several other older threads, but I didn't have the money to shell out. I just am meticulous with several different programs that I have inherited through a lot of internet searching.

I hope everyone still likes them anyways. 8)

...Alex Lamers...

 

[fplowman]

sitting in Beatrice awaiting something at the Holiday Inn.. Lots of chase teams here.. lets hope and pray...

Fred

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Now I'm catching on

More cranial flatulence from the remnants of Rocky for once again posting earlier in the wrong area....my humble apologies.

Looking at the TOP radar, echoes are linear out across north central KS. but are gaining strength...what I like are those VAD profiles from the TOP radar site...no kidding about potential tornadoes...infact as you should already know, a red box has been issued for parts of eastern Neb. and northeast KS.

Maybe the sacrifice of the picnic won't be all in vain after all.
Rocky&family

 

[nickgrillo]

Alex, totally... They are great graphics. As soon as I get back to MI in a couple of days, I will be sending my PC to Rob Dale for GEMPAK installation...

Anyways, back to the main topic. Still sitting here in Nebraska City in a Best Western lobby, waiting for storms to fire in SE NE. Hopefully not too long...

 

[Verne Carlson]

Just talked to Tony L. - he and the weathervine crew are calling it an early evening.

 

[mikegeukes]

BEATRICE RUC FORECAST SOUNDING
1 hour RUC2 valid 0Z SUN 22 MAY 05

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5812.81 m
Freezing level: 574.06 mb = 4766.45 m = 15637.76 ft
Wetbulb zero: 605.18 mb = 4334.12 m = 14219.37 ft
Precipitable water: 1.80 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 66.94 %
Est. max temperature: 34.13 C = 93.44 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 848.26 mb = 1497.70 m = 4913.67 ft T: 22.04 C
700-500 lapse rate: 6.65 C/km
ThetaE index: 20.84 C Layer 850.0- 600.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 764.65 mb = 2391.35 m = 7845.54 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 15.23 g/kg
Conv temperature: 35.44 C = 95.80 F
Cap Strength: 3.06 C

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 4468.92 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 94.54 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 41.48 J/kg
Cap Strength: 1.94 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 848.26 mb = 1497.70 m = 4913.67 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 773.26 mb = 2295.68 m = 7531.66 ft
Equ Level (EL): 143.26 mb = 14327.72 m = 47006.40 ft
B at Equ Level: 4464.04 J/kg

Wind level data
Storm motion: 302 at 20 knt

BEATRICE RUC FORECAST SOUNDING
2 hour RUC2 valid 1Z SUN 22 MAY 05

Sounding variables and indices
1000-500 mb thick: 5806.05 m
Freezing level: 576.17 mb = 4738.12 m = 15544.82 ft
Wetbulb zero: 617.80 mb = 4167.49 m = 13672.69 ft
Precipitable water: 1.77 inches
Sfc-500 mean rel hum: 64.87 %
Est. max temperature: 33.48 C = 92.27 F
Sfc-Lift cond lev (LCL): 884.14 mb = 1140.37 m = 3741.32 ft T: 23.53 C
700-500 lapse rate: 6.60 C/km
ThetaE index: 25.10 C Layer 950.0- 600.0 mb
Conv cond level (CCL): 771.68 mb = 2316.10 m = 7598.68 ft
Mean mixing ratio: 15.27 g/kg
Conv temperature: 34.93 C = 94.88 F
Cap Strength: 2.76 C

Parcel Indices
Parcel: using surface
CAPE (B+): 3629.72 J/kg
Max Up Vert Vel: 85.20 m/s
Conv Inhibition (B-): 116.60 J/kg
Cap Strength: 2.92 C
Lift Cond Lev (LCL): 884.14 mb = 1140.37 m = 3741.32 ft
Lev Free Conv (LFC): 749.14 mb = 2569.04 m = 8428.51 ft
Equ Level (EL): 149.14 mb = 14078.77 m = 46189.62 ft
B at Equ Level: 3606.66 J/kg

Wind level data
Storm motion: 313 at 19 knt

Mike

 

[nickgrillo]

I am starting to feel unconfident. If nothing happens by Nightfall (9:00 PM) in SE NE, I guess we'll head back to Detroit...

 

[Alex Lamers]

My guess is that this stuff will wait to get going after everyone has lost hope. It will probably be an after dark event its looking like now.

Some activity now firing in South-Central Iowa of all places.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Yeah, looks like the Nebraska show will be later tonite, if at all. There isnt even a cu field there anymore...so its going to be a little while before we see anything forming. Only storms worth anything appear to be in eastern Kansas, and southern Iowa.

 

[mikegeukes]

Sunset Times for Selected Cities in the Tornado Watch

SUNSET 834 PM CDT: TOPEKA KS
SUNSET 841 PM CDT: OMAHA NE
SUNSET 843 PM CDT: CONCORDIA KS
SUNSET 843 PM CDT: LINCOLN NE
SUNSET 847 PM CDT: SIOUX CITY IA
SUNSET 850 PM CDT: NORFOLK NE

Mike

 

[Shane Adams]

We should all be at Rocky & D's beautiful farmstead about now, full of chicken, burgers, and soda pop, watching videos. Hopefully there's no risk area a week from today, be horrible to lose both events to crap chase days. I'm so bored, I'm considering popping open another energy drink, even though I am so wound up on the previous two attm I'm about to start counting the flowers on the lobby carpet.

 

[Jeff Miller]

hmm

Stepped out to the patio of Gateway here in North Sioux City, South Dakota where I am presently on my lunch break at work to see one of the puniest little storms with junior anvil I ever saw. Other cumulus towers are flanking it with high hopes, but the evil cap is quickly smacking them to reality.

What a promising day turned to absolute crap.