05/21/05: TALK: KS/NE/IA

[Eric B'Hymer]

Im not gonna bash anyone or anything. Just simply state that even though it was a bust, it was a pleasure to meet so many people even though i am terrible with names. Had an interesting visit to Hallam as i was at work when the event took place. Everyone should check out McDonalds F-4 Pub on main street,and all the new houses. They have even started a pile of bricks for a new church (i am assuming they are left from the old church). Anyways, as a chaser i am an optomist,even though the chances are slim to see a tornado per trip. I think the forecast was good and i dont believe anyone thought that the cap wouldnt break. If it would have we would all be rejoicing most likely, as the atmosphere was a loaded time bomb waiting to explode. All in all it was a great trip and i got got to see some new country i had never been in. Dick & Mike are great company and enjoy the same passion for weather that i do and many others do obviously,( as a chaser from Georgia expounded yesterday at the convergence,"do you think we have enough for a meeting". In my opinion, we should just take yesterday in stride as an event that happens and wait for the next chase, which should probably happen sometime this week hopefully the days i'm not working. Everyone out chasing this week, be safe and have a good time.

 

[Cstok]

Hi all,
I arrived in DFW at around 1pm yesterday afternoon, and did my best to avoid a speeding ticket as I hauled north. I ended just South of Salina around 7pm as a multi cell cluster with fairly high bases got going. As I pull off of I35 at McPherson to head East towards Lyons, they had a Drug Check... stopping ALL cars on the freeway... well my exit was just before the check, and as I pull off the offramp there are a ton off officers, watching everyone who pulls off. They follow me west, as I head towards the cell that looks most promising... 10min after following me, on go the lights!! They pull me over and are very concerned about who I am, because the plates come back as not registered (because it is a rental car!!!). Anyway, after they run a dog through (and all over my stuff) they let me go, after they ask me what I am doing out here all the way from California... I try to explain my obsession, and you know the responses / stares etc... we've all been there. The whole thing was quite humourous actually. That delay put me too far behind to get to the best spots before dark. One cell was tor warned (I believe) for a short period of time. Not totally sure because I was having probs with my scanner.

Anyway, got some nice pix of some mammatus, and a few CBs. Saw some intese CGs. Quarter size hail was reported.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y239/fend...dy/IMG_0460.jpg
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y239/fend...dy/IMG_0459.jpg

By the way, I am driving a gray / silver Ford Explorer with Tex plates. So if you see me give me a wave. I am hoping I get to meet some of you during the next 10 days. Many of you have given me good tips, and I have learned alot from you all so I want to say thanks! Best of luck out there today.

 

[Eric B'Hymer]

Good thing you werent 1 county to the west when pulled over, Barton County Sheriff's dont like stormchasers, i know first hand. I was chasing up there in 97 and i got their scanner frequencie and listened to them talk about us on the radio. The comments werent very nice and i wish i could have talked back to them.

Good luck chasing.

 

[KMcCallister]

I love how everyone really doesn't look at the weather and looks at the models. Further, when they bust it has nothing to do with the fact they didn't pay attention to real data.
Try to stick with data...soundings don't lie and I don't care what a model says.

Blows my mind how people who didn't even get off their ass come in here and blast those of us who had the balls to test our forecasts. Don't ever tell me how my day went when you weren't there sharing it with me. I watched data all damned day until 8pm. Sometimes you have to put the textbook down and have a little faith. It doesn't always work, but I'd rather take that 6-hour drive and have a chance...something you never had today.

EDIT: (after reading further Ortega wisdom)

I busted today because the cap held, period. My forecast wasn't bad, unless you want to blast the SPC right along with me and the dozens of others who were already parked inside the t-box when it came out. We were where we should've been had the cap been broken. I'm not a scholar, I don't cling desperately to books and reason and standards. I take chances, I trust in chaos, and I believe things can happen when they shouldn't.

LOL, you act as if nobody expected a cap issue today. What you're mistakenly calling a bad forecast was simply faith.

I could have chased on Saturday as well, but chose not to chase due to the weather conditions. My friends and I were ready to go and I made the call at 11pm Friday evening not to chase since I didn't believe there was enough chance of success to chase.

As it turns out, I made the correct decision while many did not. Every person defines their own tolerance for success vs failure when they make chase decisions more than a couple of hours from home. I consider a good forecast to be more desireable than driving 12 hours and 900 miles because I'm desperate during a bad season. (Which is IMO what yesterday was to many people.) After 4 complete busts this year, I don't get more desperate to chase, but I get more conservative about it.

To those who defend a bad forecast with the "everybody else agreed with me" approach, a bad forecast is a bad forecast even if everybody agrees with you. It's bad because it's wrong. The point of forecasting is to get it right...not agree with everybody else.

Here's where I disagree with you Shane. I DID "have the balls" to test my forecast today. I sat home today knowing there was a small possibility that I would miss the best show of the year. While I can enjoy my success in not chasing, I could instead be looking at tornado pictures from yesterday on stormtrack.

 

[nickgrillo]

I can understand being really bored and chasing for the hell of it...but at least admit you were bored, chasing a crappy set up and get over it.

The only thing "crappy" about this setup was the CAP, which was already said by another person in another post previously. The setup looked excellent for tornadoes, and the only problem was the CAP...

I'll stop right this second, because there is numerous posts whom I would like to reply to the way I like, but it's againest the rules...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

It wasn't like the cap was what it was AND there was weak convergence. There WAS decent convergence. There was also a hell of a lot of sun on either side of that cirrus sheild. If one gets picky on the cap it will bite their ass over and over. A lot of the best storms happen on questionable cap days. I'd much rather bust a few times(via a "bad" forecast, lol) by being out there under a thermo cap than miss just that one surprise that tornadoes or holds amazing structure for hours. It's more fun to bust by knowingly chasing a strong cap(which I'm sure nearly all knew yesterday) than it is to miss those 'other' events. I imagine many didn't have the luxury of looking at an 18z sounding before they left either(yeah yeah 12z....). I also imagine if many of them did they'd still be willing to gamble. Just because someone is out there and busts doesn't mean they weren't looking at 'real' data or a fool.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Even on days with questionable forecasts OR questionable soundings, a person is almost always better off to go ahead, risk the bust and chase. Especially in a year like this one ... imagine if yesterday had panned out and become the only major day of '05, then how would we feel if we had stayed home. On days like this, I actually feel like the smarter thing to do is get outside.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

If one gets picky on the cap it will bite their ass over and over.

Remember what Tim Marshall wrote: If it's May, chase.

And there's a phrase my gear-head brother uses: "Go out to the highway and be somebody!"

 

[fplowman]

Ok .. It was a bust.. But really it wasnt. I met soo many great people and was able to put names with faces.. Dick Mcgowan, Eric Bhymer, Ryan Mcginnis, Mike Johnston, Brad Emel And many many others my buddys Dan Hinch and Marc Dahmer, Marc Grant. I wish i could have met Wolfson, Jhadorn, Shane and Prusia. They were there but our paths didnt cross.. anyways.. although a Weather Bust i really had a great time fraternizing with fellow chasers.. So all in all even though I didnt see any good weather it was one of the greatest days i have chased on. (always positive).. Damn did I get some sun or what?? lol

Great meeting everyone.. hope to see you guys memorial day weekend.

Fred

 

[Justin Turcotte]

I did get to see a storm in northwest Minnesota. I was not on the one that did some damage near Crookston. NWS survey claims F2 tornado damage. Maybe so, but I speculate it was a potent landspout rather than a mesocyclonic tornado.

Chase summary and lone pic
http://snrs.unl.edu/amet898/turcotte/secon...orm05212005.htm

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

The job almost got done in far se SD too. We(Steve Peterson, Walker Ashley and I) shot north east of Norfolk after getting tired of our struggling cu. The first 'storm' drifted east and got its butt kicked by the cap while another nice tower shot up behind it. It looked like it'd be the only game in town but as we got to it at Vermillion it too got its butt kicked. The front was not progressing east as quick as one would have like either. The winds behind it wanted to slide out of the north more than they did the nw which didn't help the convergence.

 

[Brad Emel]

I also enjoyed meeting so many fellow chasers today. The Sapp Bros parking lot was a pretty good place to hang out and meet everyone. Hopefully I'll see you all soon on another chase.